But who is going to be jumping up in fantasy drafts that will see success in 2013? Here are my picks:

David Wilson, RB, New York Giants – David Wilson was chosen last in the first round in 2012 and fumbled his second rushing attempt of the season, placing him firmly in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse…until injuries to the Giants’ RB corps, including Ahmad Bradshaw, who is no longer with the team, allowed Wilson to see the field. Wilson came on strong towards the end of the season, however, and worked his way out of the RB Roach Motel partly through his skill in the return game. He’s a speedster out of the backfield and his special teams returns will only add to his fantasy value. He’ll never be a “featured” type of back due to his size, but should see a vastly increased workload. He’s not so much of a secret, but some fantasy owners eschew anyone they consider “risky.” Wilson’s not nearly as “risky” as his rookie season and Coughlin will have to lean on him by default.

Dec 30, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller (26) runs the ball against the New England Patriots during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Projection-Position: Round 3 – RB2

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins – the Dolphins got a steal in the 2012 draft, taking this talented young man from across the street (U of Miami) in the 4th round. He was injured coming in so that probably kicked him out of a late-first or second-round slot had he been 100%. The Dolphins’ drafting him was the handwriting on the wall for popular RB Reggie Bush, who is now in Detroit. Miller carried the ball a little bit towards the end of the season and averaged a very nice 4.9 yds/carry. He looks to be “The Man” in Miami, and with defenses spread out worrying about the speed of Mike Wallace, Smith shouldn’t be facing many stacked fronts as his QB, Ryan Tannehill and Miami’s top pick of the same draft, has a howitzer arm with the ability to attack any part of the field on any given play. In a pass-first league, there should be plenty of running lanes for Miller to take advantage of. Fellow RB Daniel Thomas could see some vulture TDs down close, but Miller can do it all – including catch the ball and/or line up in the slot. He can block, too, making him a true 3-down back and can help him see even more snaps in 2013.

Projection-Position: Round 3 – RB2 or Round 2 – RB1/RB2 in PPR leagues

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals – Rookie WRs tend not to produce much, with a small group of exceptions, but the Cardinals’ offense was a complete train wreck in 2012. They had no offensive line and incompetent QB play – partly a result of their sieve-like offensive line. Carson Palmer may not be an All-Pro, but he should be a nice upgrade at the position and the Cardinals did add a couple of pieces to that line, starting with UNC guard Jonathan Cooper. They should have 2 new names at the guard spots on opening day 2013, and Palmer should have a little bit better protection (can’t get any worse). With defenses paying attention to top-3 NFL WR Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd’s production should only increase from his rookie campaign of 45 catches for 562 yards and 2 TDs.

Dec. 23, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA: Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) catches a pass in the second quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Projection-Position: Round 6 – WR3/Flex

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears – The big 6’5″ Jeffery was expected to come in and help take heat off of 6’3″ WR Brandon Marshall, but got injured early and never did become much of a force. His stats were 24 rec 367 yds and 3 TDs. A healthy Jeffery entering his 2nd season should become Jay Cutler’s preferred red-zone target, which in turn will help his fantasy value. Between his height advantage over ANY corner – including the likes of 6’3″ Richard Sherman for instance – and the huge catching radius both he and Marshall have, Jeffery could develop into a clutch 3rd-down/possession receiver with the strength to break that first tackle and “YAC it up” just as Marshall does. With RB Matt Forte’s presence, anyone defending the Bears will have to pick their poison and Jeffery looks to be the one left in one-on-one coverage as Marshall commands double-teams. It’s a perfect set-up for Alshon…if he can only stay healthy.

Projection-Position: Round 5 – WR2 – partly due to TD/red zone targets. PPR Leagues: Round 7 – WR3/Flex

Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – Brown is my “boom or bust” pick for the group here. The Pittsburgh Steelers are in rebuilding mode, having had a disappointing 2012 campaign. They lost uber-deep-threat WR Mike Wallace, so the other WRs remaining will have to pick up the slack. Big Ben reminds me of an ancient QB named Jim Plunkett whose play was often ugly, but all he did was win ball games. Big Ben has deceptive athleticism and an especially strong QB who can shrugh off/duck tacklers to buy time for downfield throws, and they’ll be getting back their top draft pick in 2012 and the top-rated guard prospect in the draft that year, David DeCastro, who was injured in the preseason with a knee injury and lost for last season, so their o-line play should improve. With that in mind, Brown has already had one thousand-yard season in 2011, but only 2 TDs. Last year his yds/catch plummeted but his TDs increased to 5. This season, without Wallace (but with Emmanuel Sanders in the slot), defenses still have a couple of good receivers to cover, not to mention TE Heath Miller underneath especially in the red zone. But Brown has 4.3 speed himself (as does Sanders) and if he can stay healthy for all 16 games, I could easily see another thousand-yard season with at least half a dozen TDs. The bright spot is BOTH Steelers’ WRs I’ve mentioned should be under-rated going into most fantasy drafts. Since most managers are “what have you done for me lately?” types and Brown is a season removed from his 1,000-yard effort, he should slide in most drafts. His being only 24 years old means he’s still improving both mentally and physically. Finally, with the loss of RB Reshard Mendenhall to free agency, there is no primary bell-cow RB the Steelers can lean on…until/if one of their youngsters can break out of the pack. It all points to a big season for Antonio Brown in the steel city.

Projection-Position: Round 7 – WR3/Flex starter. PPR Leagues: Round 8-9 – Flex

Chicago Bears 33, Washington Redskins 31 – RGIII looked more like a rookie in this one but he didn’t look horrible. He’s just having a few growing pains. QB Kirk Cousins threw 3 TD passes with the second team. Bears WR Alshon Jeffery looks like the player “they THOUGHT they were” (getting, that is – hat tip to Denny Green). The biggest concern was when Redskins OLB and Pro-Bowler Brian Orakpo injured his right pectoral muscle on a tackle – the same one he injured last year. Hopefully it’s just a strain, but a tear would keep him out possibly the entire season. It’s too early to know yet but listen for news as it develops. Redskins starting safety Brandon Meriweather hurt his knee, was helped off the field, and didn’t return in the game. I wonder if the GEICO caveman is gloating?

Houston Texans 20, San Francisco 49′ers 9 – Matt Schaub looked sharp once again and Andre Johnson looked horse-healthy on a 43 yard completion as the Texans’ first teams looked impressive once again. 9′ers RB Brandon Jacobs left the game after a tackler speared his right thigh/knee area on a tackle. It looked quite painful to be sure, but probably will wind up being a deep bruise. Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter are still the top two backs and that shouldn’t change. Jim Harbaugh seems to be interweaving his new receiving bodies into his run-based offense nicely and they’ll be a force in the NFC. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me all that much if this game is a Super Bowl Preview.

St. Louis Rams 31, Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Rams’ QB Sam Bradford looked sharp, throwing 2 TD passes on 6 of 9 passing and appears to be healthy again after an ankle injury hampered his sophomore season. Rookie WR Brian Quick had 3 catches and he was considered a talent who needs a little seasoning but seems to be developing nicely so far. Danny Amendola had 3 catches for 58 yards and a TD. Matt Cassel of the Chiefs had a nice outing as well while RBs Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles, both injured much of last season, got a little work and looked nice on a few runs. If that duo can get going, they could possibly be the best “Thunder (Hillis) and Lightning (Charles)” combo in the NFL if they live up to their talent…and if Hillis doesn’t get Strep Throat again. Rookie NT Dontari Poe’s struggles continue as he recorded a single tackle on the contest.

Seattle Seahawks 30, Denver Broncos 10 – 38 year-old WR Terrell Owens dropped a sure 48 yard TD pass from QB Matt Flynn, but the Seahawks won anyway. Peyton Manning had a good day other than a couple of interceptions – one on a tipped pass and the other on a throw that drifted on him a bit when he had to make a perfect pass. Don’t worry about Manning; he’s Manning and will be fine. Fantasy owners should take notice that Brandon Stokley and Manning seem to be getting familiar with each other again. Keep tabs on the pair; Stokley might be worth a late-round pick as a bit of a sleeper that some owners will pass over due to his age and injury history, but might see some production in this offense.

San Diego Chargers 28, Dallas Cowboys 20 – Dallas loses their second preseason game but their starting defense is really looking good. All of the Chargers’ points came in the second half. Lots going on in this game. First, Chargers’ apparent #1 receiver Vincent Brown broke his ankle and will miss at least 8 weeks. The Chargers WR group as a whole isn’t the most durable even while they have depth. QB Philip Rivers continued throwing picks like last year. It’s not all his fault, however, as his line is giving up ground so he can’t step into some of his throws. That Cowboy first-team looks pretty good on both sides but especially on defense as they have yet to allow a score in two games. Undrafted rookie free agent Cole Beasley from SMU had 7 catches and 104 yards as he stated his case for the #3 WR behind Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Bryant made a would-be spectacular one-handed catch in the back of the endzone, leaping high to snag it out of the air. He came down JUST out of bounds and there was a holding penalty anyway, but the spectacle clearly demonstrated his talent and ability. They don’t make many like him.

My initial reaction?

Only idiots have their fantasy league drafts before the PRE-season begins.

No personal insults intended for those of you that have, but think about it: A) You’re drafting without vital information about which newcomers are looking up (ie: a T.Y. Hilton or Doug Martin) and which ones aren’t looking too good so far (ie: a Dontari Poe, Morris Claiborne) and B) You cannot account for injuries that invariably occur during the preseason (ie: Pat Angerer, Trent Richardson).

Also, as I write this, the breaking news of the day is that Giants DT Shaun Rogers is out for the season with a blood clot in his leg. While Rogers is hardly a fantasy stud even in fantasy leagues that have a DT position, this is just the latest setback in the Giants’ interior DL and will affect their ability to stop the run. Things like this have ripple effects.

May 23, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (95) takes a break during the Giants OTA at the their training facility. Mandatory Credit: Jim O

So, remember the Golden Rule for Fantasy Commissioners: Don’t draft your league too early! Nobody wants a league where one or more owners gives up due to multiple injuries to their “top players” before the season even begins.

In this article, let’s take a look at some rookies that could provide some good upside with a mid-to-late round draft choice:

Brian Quick before Stephen Hill

Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams – there are mixed ideas about this kid. He comes from small Appalachian State in Boone, NC, so conventional wisdom is that he should take some time to get up to speed with an NFL playbook. At 6’4″ and 220 pounds, he ran a 4.55 at the NFL Combine. These stats basically mirror those of Bears’ WR Brandon Marshall, who came from UCF (Central Florida).

Remember back in 2007 when App. St. won in Ann Arbor against the Michigan Wolverines? Quick wasn’t a part of that game, but players like Chad Henne and Mario Manningham were on Michigan’s side. Armanti Edwards was the game’s leading passer, and he’s now a starting safety for the Carolina Panthers. It demonstrates the strength of their program.

By contrast, Stephen Hill is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the entire WR class for 2012. The kid averaged – averaged – over 28 yards per catch in college at the much larger school, Georgia Tech. However, he’s even more raw than Quick is and has to learn the route tree besides posts and go patterns. Even though the Jets are thin at the position, Hill has a ton of work in front of him before he becomes a consistent threat in the passing game. He’s worth a late-round pick as a 4th WR perhaps but don’t look for much production from him early.

You also have to take into account the team’s offense and who exactly the quarterback is. Would you rather have your “sleeper” WR pick catching passes from Mark Sanchez or Sam Bradford?

Bradford had a bad year last year but he was hampered by injuries. Mark Sanchez has yet to prove he’s a franchise quarterback. Bradford showed he can be that guy in 2010 when he was a healthy rookie.

Aug 9, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) catches a pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Tony Carter (32) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Alshon Jeffery before Rueben Randle

Randle is the better-known player as Jeffery had a dismal final season for the Gamecocks, so Randle will probably be headed off the board first. This is a case of perhaps TOO much talent – on the New York Giants’ WR roster. Randle will compete against Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz for targets. Alshon Jeffery likely will start the entire season opposite Brandon Marshall, making Jeffery the team’s no.2 option. While Randle may also start for his Giants, there’s more talent there to compete with. Both teams have strong quarterback play, with a sizable edge going to Eli, but again…Randle is one among many while Jeffery is one among two. The math favors Jeffery, but Randle should produce also. I just think Jeffery might be the better value of the two in terms of fantasy draft position vs. upside this year.

Some random notes:

RB David Wilson of the Giants could wind up being a fantasy points machine. He was drafted to be the “hammer” to Ahmad Bradshaw’s shifty style of running. Bradshaw has a history of getting dinged up with some injuries, and Wilson looks to be the more natural goal-line back of the two. Wilson not only has the potential to be a TD vulture, but will probably see at least a few games where Bradshaw’s either out or hurting, allowing Wilson to get more touches.

RB Lamar Miller of the Dolphins should be considered in PPR leagues. The Philbin regime has begun and he runs a West Coast style offense. With the lack of receiving experience on the team, I see a lot of different guys catching balls this fall. I’d be surprised if any single guy gets more than 60 catches and backs and TEs should see a higher percentage of total targets as a result. Reggie Bush may line up in the slot or run patterns out of the backfield and Miller should see his share as well with his speed. While I probably wouldn’t draft him in regular leagues, he might be worth a later pick in PPR leagues.

Don’t “reach” for Justin Blackmon – There are two good reasons NOT to draft Justin Blackmon high: Laurent Robinson and Blaine Gabbert. Having said that, if he does fall into the 6th round or beyond, which is highly doubtful, THEN you might take a flier on him. Just remember for WRs that half of it is about who is throwing the ball. With Blaine Gabbert looking marginally better so far than he did last year, he has a long way to go as well in his second year. When you add in Laurent Robinson on the other side, Blackmon’s opportunities look to be limited by circumstance – and especially if Pocket Hercules continues his holdout into the regular season.

The 2012 NFL season looks especially rich with untested skill-position rookies looking to make an immediate impact.