For 2013, the names have changed and so have certain issues, but the concept is the same: Can we take a chance on “this guy?”

Feb 26, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Louisiana State defensive end Tyrann Mathieu catches a pass during the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

For instance, there’s the infamous Manti Te’o. He didn’t show great athleticism at the combine, but he’s one of those “WATCH THE $#@$ tape!!” guys. He has instincts and intangibles that are completely off the charts, but questions about the “fake twitter girlfriend” will hound him well into his flegeling NFL career no matter what. Thankfully, the Panthers are very well set at ILB with last year’s DROY, Luke Kuechly, and don’t have to consider Te’o in the first place.

But what about Tyrann Mathieu?

The Panthers signed several very low-cost defensive backs in the offseason, both at safety and at corner. D.J. Moore and Drayton Florence come into town and my personal favorite, Captain Munnerlyn, stayed on with a one-year deal. On the surface, the team has shored up the back end of their defense, but who wouldn’t want a kid with Mathieu’s talent at a discounted rate?

Part of the most recent news is going to be a problem for some. When asked how many drug tests he failed at LSU, he responded “I stopped counting at TEN.”

This is news to we, the fans, but it’s nothing new to the teams who have interviewed him. The question now becomes: Do you believe in the kid or do you think he’s just saying the right things to get a job?

I’ve seen a number of interviews with Mathieu, and I actually believe in the kid. What’s sold me is he’s been brutally honest no matter how personal or intrusive a question may be, and to his credit, he knows he has to answer, and appears to be doing so honestly.

He’s saying “It is what it was, I’m laying everything about it right out on the table, but you have to decide if I’m worthy or not.”

That’s the way to handle it. If he were evasive at all, that would be a major red flag. In that case, the reactions would be “With his past and his current avoidance of the issues with his past…eh, let him be someone else’s problem. I can’t waste a 2nd or 3rd round pick on someone like that.”

He comes across in interviews as surprisingly bright for a guy who was so involved in using marijuana – usage that he HAD to know would be found out and that the consequences could be dire…especially when you fail a dozen or more drug tests. It put forth a “me-first” attitude about him and Les Miles finally had had enough and kicked him off the team at LSU, despite his pre-season Heisman Trophy talk. Yes, he’s that good…almost, anyway.

I think ex-teammate Patrick Peterson has a slight physical edge, in size and speed, but Mathieu isn’t far behind and has his own talents too.

Oct. 14, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals cornerback Patrick Peterson (21) against the Buffalo Bills at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Mathieu looks and sounds like someone who truly has realized his many past mistakes and has take an long step towards growing up. Remember, these are college kids we’re talking about, right? Who out there didn’t do at least one completely stupid thing in college? And without having the knowledge that you’re a star football player who gets special treatment?

There ya go.

I think he’s learned his lesson, but would he be a fit for the Carolina Panthers in the second round?

Even with his apparent “conversion,” my initial response is no – pass on him anyway. He would bring incredible athleticism and versatility, a guy who never was late for a team meeting (before he was kicked off for the drug tests), and did everything on the field one could possibly ask of him. He’s a special-teams guy on top of all of that.

The Panthers now have Ted Ginn, Jr. They have Captain Munnerlyn, and then there’s always Joe “Shall I fumble or shall I not” Adams in an emergency for return duties, so there’s no glaring need there.

The Carolina Panthers have pieces in place that cover the talents that Tyrann Mathieu brings to the table. The need just isn’t there for Gettleman to bring Mathieu in during the second round, and the team has no third round pick. With the new GM’s offseason moves, the defensive backfield is much, much deeper than it was when they let “Gam” (CB Chris Camble) go.

I do think whoever grabs Mathieu will be getting a steal, most likely.

I just don’t think it will be with the Carolina Panthers.

For fans, it’s like 70-odd Christmas Eves each day. Will this or that player be around when the Panthers Pick? Who will go first overall, and if it’s not Geno Smith, how far will he fall? Will Chance Warmack get past the Titans at number ten or be around for Dallas at eighteen?

Number fourteen is a very interesting position to draft in. I think it, along with the depth in this year’s crop of defensive linemen, may allow the Panthers to slide down in the first round and still pick up a guy to help them, but let’s look at sticking at 14 and what some of the experts in the field say and who some of their own mocks leave off as being around later for such a scenario:

From NFL.com:

Bucky Brooks has Utah star…uh well Starlite “Star” Lotulelei going here. He’d certainly help a thin defensive Panthers line. I don’t think he’ll fall this far, despite concerns over his dedication to the game. Brooks has Sheldon Richardson, the DT from Missouri going to Dallas at 18. He’s a destructive presence in the middle with good, quick hands to help get off blocks and is tough to move off the ball.

Daniel Jeremiah has California WR Keenan Allen going here to Carolina. I can see the reasoning – WR is a need that is only going to get more pressing as Steve Smith’s skills decline on a team filled with a bunch of #3 WR slot-type guys. Allen has WR1 potential though lacking in elite downfield speed. At 6’3″ 205 lbs. he has the size to overpower smaller corners and runs crisp routes. Hands are a little inconsistent.

September 22, 2012; Columbia, SC, USA; Missouri Tigers defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (34) gets instruction from the sidelines in the second half against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Charles Davis thinks Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson could land with the Panthers, so keep an eye on him in particular.

Gil Brandt has Baylor WR Terrance Williams going to Carolina at 14. Similar in size to Kennan Allen, he’s a better run blocker.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper says the Panthers take DT Sheldon Richardson from Missouri. His mock has Chance Warmack going at 18 to Dallas, so presumably he’d be around for the Panthers to pick. I think Warmack is special enough to grab here especially considering the need at the position, the financial and talent-laden backfield, and the sky-high ceiling of the kid. He might even make Amini Silatolu better leading by example, and with center Ryan Kalil hopefully returning to form, that would mean one of the worst interior lines in the NFL suddenly just became one of the best. Just like that it follows that RBs Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert would give the Panthers one of the most physically punishing offensive attacks in the NFL.

Todd McShay says DT Sharrif Floyd from Florida goes to the Carolina Panthers, rounding out all prognosticators picking either a DT or WR as their first round choice, and I’d say that’s probably their two biggest needs other than offensive guard.

Whether the Panthers wind up with Warmack, Richardson, Allen or Williams they are going to get a nice upgrade. I think if GM David Gettleman is as sly as I think he may be, he’ll use the breadth of talent to his advantage, trade down, and still land a good contributor while starting to pile up a few extra draft picks or add another 2nd or 3rd-rounder sliding only a few choices in some scenarios.

The last point I’d like to make here is that if you look at last year’s draft, Stanford guard David DeCastro was picked around 12th to 16th in many mocks and he slid into the 20′s even through he was the best guard prospect in his draft. The position itself is low on the totem pole in terms of spending a lot of draft capital on the position, regardless of the level of talent, and that’s too bad.

A perennial Pro-Bowl guard is player I’d be happy to have drafted 14th. If so desired, leverage his upside into a favorable trade on draft day and take advantage of the extra pick for a shot at a contributor at yet another position of need or trade it for the 2014 first-round pick plus a 3rd this year and still get a DT or target one of the free safeties that are looking like late first rounders.

LSU’s Eric Reed would be an upgrade over Charles Godfrey or anyone else on the roster with D.J. Campbell taking over the starting strong safety position late last season and make the safeties a pair of young and talented starters with quite a bit of upside still to come. If they’re impressed with one of the receivers, they can get him at 14 and not really be reaching. The danger here is one or more really stand out at the combine and break into the top ten. We saw how many skill position types were traded up for in 2012′s draft.

I’d say the Panthers are in good position to really improve their team with the depth of the draft here no matter which direction they go.

Assuming – and at this point, assuming anything is premature – for discussion purposes, the Panthers wind up with the #3 pick overall.

Well, they don’t need a quarterback, and depending on how high the next class of QBs is rated, they could trade down and claim a nice haul from a team like Arizona or Buffalo. There are surprisingly few teams that don’t have a solid QB, in the process of developing one (Colts, Redskins, Browns, Dolphins), or yet ready to give up on the guy they’ve started developing (Jets, Jaguars) so #3 may not be the hot spot.

In this year’s draft, the Redskins vaulted to #2 overall, trading a pile of picks to move up only two spots to nab Robert Griffin, III. It seems so long ago now, but the trade happened less than 9 months ago. Remember, with the rookie wage scale in place, teams were all trading around to position themselves for the top talent and the trend should continue as long as the current structure remains in place.

But what if the Panthers don’t/can’t trade their #3 or #4 pick – whatever, a top-5 pick – who will they target? Who should they target?

Well, it’s still early in the evaluation process but now that the college season is entering the home stretch, we do know who is making plays. The college teams wind down their seasons, but still have a few games including their season-ending “rival” contests and bowl games still to come. I’ve taken the liberty of listing a number of players that could possibly move up to be in the top-five so that you know whom to look out for and keep an eye on when you’re watching the games on Saturdays…they’ll all be playing on Sundays next year for someone:

DeMarcus Milliner, CB, Alabama

Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

Sam Montgomery, DE/OLB, LSU

Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

Keenan Allen, WR, California

Damontre Moore, OLB/DE, Texas A&M

Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor

Alex Okafor, DE, Texas

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

Corey Lemonier, OLB/DE, Auburn

Keep in mind that any projections are just wild fantasies at this point. However, the Panthers’ record speaks for itself and if things continue along this path, the Panthers will be looking for a trade partner to trade down with. Failing that, they’ll pick but since there are 15 players here that I listed, one of them WILL BE AVAILABLE whenever the Panthers pick. I’ve only included players at positions of need which is why Matt Barkley and Geno Smith aren’t listed. Offensive tackle isn’t the Panther’s most glaring need, but Jeff Otah’s departure didn’t help talent nor depth. Since OT is the second-most coveted position these days, there could be a move or a trade at #3 after all…especially if a franchise left tackle is sitting there. Ask the Vikings how Matt Kalil is contributing to Christian Ponder’s season and the overall record.

Meanwhile, learn the names above. You’ll be hearing a lot out of them as a group come March and April.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye