1) Last year’s studs rarely are this year’s studs – Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing. This season, he’s holding out…possibly even into the season. Hardly first-round material unless it’s resolved fast. Adrian Peterson is coming off an ACL tear in week 17. While he’s vastly ahead of schedule in his recovery, will he be the same player in week one as he was last season’s week one?

2) Even the best QBs rarely repeat a particularly good year – but the elite ones will always deliver. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, even Cam Newton should all be high-scoring fantasy players worthy of round one picks. What I’m talking about is don’t expect Matt Stafford to repeat his breakout year, although he should still be a top-ten fantasy QB. Just don’t expect quite the same big numbers in consecutive seasons from anyone…there always seems to be some variance.

3) Don’t even BOTHER drafting a kicker…from one season to another, kickers’ FP output seems random. Last year’s top kicker is rarely this year’s one, and with kickers the swings are even wilder than other positions. Instead, use that last spot to draft a sleeper. You can ALWAYS pick up a kicker off waivers just before the first game and you’ll have that last guy on the bench. Someone will eventually need to go but more often than not, it’s someone OTHER THAN the last guy you drafted. Unless there are 2 active kicker spots, in which case it’s a good idea to grab both – just do the math for your league. If there are more kicker spots open than teams in the NFL, you’ll have an advantage over those that didn’t get two. Depends on your league’s setup and rules

4) Don’t bother drafting Mike Shanahan-coached running backs. Nothing against Mike, but he uses running backs like paper towels…uses them, throws them aside when a cleaner one is ready. After Terrell Davis, he’s gone through lots and throw a dart to figure out who winds up the better fantasy player. Best just to avoid them all.

5) If you don’t get a top-6 or so QB, wait a few rounds and draft a second-tier guy. He’ll do better than you might think – after Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Rodgers, Newton, and possibly Phillip Rivers and the Manning brothers and Stafford, lots of teams have second-tier QBs that often score nearly as many FP as the big guys, or the difference isn’t worth picking them 4 or 5 picks higher. I’d take a Big Ben in round 6 or a Matt Ryan in round 5. Don’t neglect sleeper QBs either, like Chad Henne due to circumstance or a T.J. Yates in case Matt Schaub gets injured again, you just hit the jackpot. Trade bait if nothing else…but don’t count on trading to improve your team because guess what: ALL FANTASY OWNERS ALWAYS OVERVALUE ALL THEIR PLAYERS.

5a) Same for Tight Ends. The Elite ones will go in rounds 2-4, then there’s generally a bit of a lull before the “others” go – simply because of the perceived difference in numbers. Sure, it might be a good idea to get a Gronk in round 2, but again, he’s got a very high bar to reach again, and are a difference of 500 yards and 5 TDs really worth a 2nd round pick, where a 7th round pick could get you a Brandon Pettigrew? Maybe, maybe not.

6) This may be the most overlooked AND most important thing of all – READ THE LEAGUE RULES. Compare what QBs, RBs, WRs get for the same yardage gained, and how many FP for a TD. Usually it’s 4 for QBs, 6 for RBs and WRs. I won two leagues in two different seasons because I had noticed they had 2 QB spots and a hybrid QB/WR/RB spot. So my first 5 picks were QB, QB, WR, QB, RB. I picked up DeMarco Murray midway through the year and his big second half carried me to a championship, so you’ve gotta stay alert for the waiver wire. Sometimes others will waive players they have, not knowing they’re about to see a huge uptick in action. Keep an eye on that.

7) Keep in mind some players 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart that may be playing behind injury-prone guys – see the Schaub example above. Trent Richardson’s main backups may fall into this category, depending on his knee. Ryan Matthews of the Chargers, Jahvid Best of the Lions…injury-prone. So it’s a good idea sometimes to go ahead and draft a durable backup late rather than getting a fragile producer (Dez Bryant) early.

This is by no means all-inclusive, but it’s a general guide. Know your positions, know the scoring rules for your league. Draft with those rules in mind and consider the entire team as well. Offensive players on a team with a poor rush defense won’t see as many snaps as those on a team with a good defense.

My initial reaction?

Only idiots have their fantasy league drafts before the PRE-season begins.

No personal insults intended for those of you that have, but think about it: A) You’re drafting without vital information about which newcomers are looking up (ie: a T.Y. Hilton or Doug Martin) and which ones aren’t looking too good so far (ie: a Dontari Poe, Morris Claiborne) and B) You cannot account for injuries that invariably occur during the preseason (ie: Pat Angerer, Trent Richardson).

Also, as I write this, the breaking news of the day is that Giants DT Shaun Rogers is out for the season with a blood clot in his leg. While Rogers is hardly a fantasy stud even in fantasy leagues that have a DT position, this is just the latest setback in the Giants’ interior DL and will affect their ability to stop the run. Things like this have ripple effects.

May 23, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (95) takes a break during the Giants OTA at the their training facility. Mandatory Credit: Jim O

So, remember the Golden Rule for Fantasy Commissioners: Don’t draft your league too early! Nobody wants a league where one or more owners gives up due to multiple injuries to their “top players” before the season even begins.

In this article, let’s take a look at some rookies that could provide some good upside with a mid-to-late round draft choice:

Brian Quick before Stephen Hill

Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams – there are mixed ideas about this kid. He comes from small Appalachian State in Boone, NC, so conventional wisdom is that he should take some time to get up to speed with an NFL playbook. At 6’4″ and 220 pounds, he ran a 4.55 at the NFL Combine. These stats basically mirror those of Bears’ WR Brandon Marshall, who came from UCF (Central Florida).

Remember back in 2007 when App. St. won in Ann Arbor against the Michigan Wolverines? Quick wasn’t a part of that game, but players like Chad Henne and Mario Manningham were on Michigan’s side. Armanti Edwards was the game’s leading passer, and he’s now a starting safety for the Carolina Panthers. It demonstrates the strength of their program.

By contrast, Stephen Hill is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the entire WR class for 2012. The kid averaged – averaged – over 28 yards per catch in college at the much larger school, Georgia Tech. However, he’s even more raw than Quick is and has to learn the route tree besides posts and go patterns. Even though the Jets are thin at the position, Hill has a ton of work in front of him before he becomes a consistent threat in the passing game. He’s worth a late-round pick as a 4th WR perhaps but don’t look for much production from him early.

You also have to take into account the team’s offense and who exactly the quarterback is. Would you rather have your “sleeper” WR pick catching passes from Mark Sanchez or Sam Bradford?

Bradford had a bad year last year but he was hampered by injuries. Mark Sanchez has yet to prove he’s a franchise quarterback. Bradford showed he can be that guy in 2010 when he was a healthy rookie.

Aug 9, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) catches a pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Tony Carter (32) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Alshon Jeffery before Rueben Randle

Randle is the better-known player as Jeffery had a dismal final season for the Gamecocks, so Randle will probably be headed off the board first. This is a case of perhaps TOO much talent – on the New York Giants’ WR roster. Randle will compete against Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz for targets. Alshon Jeffery likely will start the entire season opposite Brandon Marshall, making Jeffery the team’s no.2 option. While Randle may also start for his Giants, there’s more talent there to compete with. Both teams have strong quarterback play, with a sizable edge going to Eli, but again…Randle is one among many while Jeffery is one among two. The math favors Jeffery, but Randle should produce also. I just think Jeffery might be the better value of the two in terms of fantasy draft position vs. upside this year.

Some random notes:

RB David Wilson of the Giants could wind up being a fantasy points machine. He was drafted to be the “hammer” to Ahmad Bradshaw’s shifty style of running. Bradshaw has a history of getting dinged up with some injuries, and Wilson looks to be the more natural goal-line back of the two. Wilson not only has the potential to be a TD vulture, but will probably see at least a few games where Bradshaw’s either out or hurting, allowing Wilson to get more touches.

RB Lamar Miller of the Dolphins should be considered in PPR leagues. The Philbin regime has begun and he runs a West Coast style offense. With the lack of receiving experience on the team, I see a lot of different guys catching balls this fall. I’d be surprised if any single guy gets more than 60 catches and backs and TEs should see a higher percentage of total targets as a result. Reggie Bush may line up in the slot or run patterns out of the backfield and Miller should see his share as well with his speed. While I probably wouldn’t draft him in regular leagues, he might be worth a later pick in PPR leagues.

Don’t “reach” for Justin Blackmon – There are two good reasons NOT to draft Justin Blackmon high: Laurent Robinson and Blaine Gabbert. Having said that, if he does fall into the 6th round or beyond, which is highly doubtful, THEN you might take a flier on him. Just remember for WRs that half of it is about who is throwing the ball. With Blaine Gabbert looking marginally better so far than he did last year, he has a long way to go as well in his second year. When you add in Laurent Robinson on the other side, Blackmon’s opportunities look to be limited by circumstance – and especially if Pocket Hercules continues his holdout into the regular season.

The 2012 NFL season looks especially rich with untested skill-position rookies looking to make an immediate impact.

1 5 Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State
2 38 Andre Branch DE Clemson
3 70 Bryan Anger P California
5 142 Brandon Marshall LB Nevada-Reno
6 176 Mike Harris CB Florida State
7 228 Jeris Pendleton DT Ashland

First, the good.

The Jaguars have had little to no luck in recent years in drafting or otherwise acquiring any talent at the WR position. Last year, the Dallas Cowboys’ Laurent Robinson had a breakout season and the Jaguars added him in free agency, giving them an apparently good target for second-year QB Blaine Gabbert. They followed that up with trading up two spots in the 2012 draft to land top-rated college phenom WR Justin Blackmon to play on the other side of Robinson.

This is great news for Gabbert, who finished dead last in the NFL QB rankings last season in just about every meaningful category. He looked like a high school Freshman playing in the NFL pretty much all year, and that play concerned the Jaguars enough that they signed Miami Dolphin cast-off QB Chad Henne. Given what I know about both players so far, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henne starting opening day.

Neither QB showed that much in their first preseason game, however. Gabbert may have slightly out-played Henne against the Giants in their 32-31 victory over the defending champs as he led an opening-possession TD drive and did have a couple of nice passes, including a perfectly-placed short TD pass, lofting the ball over several defenders to put it where second-year WR Cecil Shorts went up and hauled it in. Gabbert didn’t do much after that, but Henne went 4/9 with their second team for 28 yards and a TD of his own.

The biggest concern is the team’s star player, RB Maurice Jones-Drew, is holding out. “Pocket Hercules” has two years remaining on a 5-year $31 million contract but is underpaid by league standards. He was the NFL’s rushing leader last season and the only bright spot for an otherwise dreary offense. If the Jaguars won’t pay him more than the $6 million a year he’s making, it brings their dedication to building a winner into question. He has 6,800+ yards rushing in his first 6 years and his last three seasons have seen him eclipse the 1,000-yard mark and 2011 was the best of his career. He’s only 27 years old, so he’s still in his prime and should be for another 3 or 4 seasons.

Injuries have already taken their toll on the offensive line, with guards Jason Spitz and Will Rackley likely to miss most if not all of the preseason. Cameron Bradfield has been inserted at the right tackle position while Eben Britton is kicked inside to guard. Britton finished last season on injured reserve. LT Eugene Monroe appears to be the only solid player in his “natural” position other than 34 year old center Brad Meester and they’re only one game into the preseason. They have an average line at best so it’s unclear at this point if the shuffling will help or hurt in the long run.

On the one hand, it’s good to get the reserves some experience. On the other hand, shuffling linemen won’t help a struggling quarterback improve.

Things are not looking good for the offense, despite the 32 points they put up against the Giants. Preseason games have never been a reliable barometer of how well or poorly a team will do in the regular season since coaches rightly use the preseason for settling position battles and roster spots while only showing perhaps 20% of their playbook.

Defensively, the Jaguars once again look to have the better unit overall. Former Head Coach Jack Del Rio, now the Defensive Coordinator for the Denver Broncos, had an above-average defense for years but couldn’t overcome the offensive woes to become much of a threat to anyone. So far, the status quo is holding.

DT Tyson Alualu is the best and most-seasoned lineman they have and Terrance Knighton should be starting at the other tackle position. Rookie Andre Branch from Clemson looks to start at the right DE spot while Jeremy Mincey brings a career-high 8 sacks with him from last season to the LDE spot so their starting DL looks to be solid again in 2012, pending Branch’s play.

The starting linebackers in their 4-3 defense look to be Daryl Smith at the strong-side LB (SAM) spot, Clint Session at the weakside (WILL), and veteran Paul Posluszny holds down the MLB (MIKE) position and will be calling the defensive signals once again.

Smith is the most durable of the group, having missed just 4 games in his 8-year career and is an active guy who can make a lot of plays. Posluszny is a steady if unspectacular MLB coming off a sub-par season in 2011, and Clint Session has only played a full slate of games once in his five years in the league. He’s also no pass-rusher, but that’s not that big an issue in the 4-3 as it would be if he were the rush/WILL linebacker in a 3-4.

Cornerback Rashean Mathis is coming off an injury but is a very good corner when healthy. However, he turns 32 later this month so he’s probably not going to play at a high level for too many more seasons. Right now, the Jaguars are just happy he’s getting healthy after tearing his ACL last November.

Derek Cox is slated to start at the other CB position but he left the Giants’ game with an injury after winding up on IR last season. Team officials say he’s got a hamstring injury and should miss most of the rest of the preseason, so things are not encouraging after the big rash of injuries the team suffered through last season. Hamstrings can be nagging over time if not allowed to properly heal, so they could just be using extra caution.

Dwight Lowery appears to be atop the depth chart at the FS position while former Baltimore Raven DaWan Landry mans the other spot. With the linebacking corps having some instability in the past with injuries and the same problems at corner last season, the safeties would seem to be the strength of the back seven along with LB Smith.

After the top 3 draft picks, there doesn’t appear to be much help from the 2012 draft. Of course, when they announced a punter with their third-round pick, I figured it made perfect sense despite the baffled pundits’ reactions. With a horrible offense and an unsettled defense, I had said that their punter may be their best weapon on the team – especially if Pocket Hercules holds out into the regular season, which it appears he’s ready to do.

With all that’s going on with the team in mind since last year, and their 5-11 finish last season, I think the Jaguars are….

standing still at best. While they appear to have finally gotten the receiving help that they need, the injury bug is still affecting the squad. Shuffling the offensive line and MJD’s holdout negate anything positive they added at the WR spots in the offseason, and trading up for Blackmon meant they gave up some later picks that they might have used to add depth that would help in case of more injuries.

So far, it looks as if the Jags might well end up with the top pick in 2013.

Hello, Matt Barkley!

Next up….the Kansas City Chiefs.