October 08, 2011; Houston, TX, USA; Memphis Tigers defensive lineman Dontari Poe (74) attempts to get past Rice Owls offensive lineman Ian Gray (72) in the second quarter at Rice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-US PRESSWIRE

In my recent Mock Draft v. 2.0, I mentioned in passing that every draft seems to have “That One Guy…” the one who slides and slides until he’s a bargain…then slides some more. Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith were both up to be the top pick 4 or 5 years ago and the 49′ers chose the wrong one. Rodgers slid all the way down to #24. A couple of years ago, Auburn had the top Offensive player AND the top defensive player coming off their national championship season. Cam Newton was rewarded as the top pick, but concerns about DT Nick Fairley made him slide down to 14th from a projected 3rd-9th.

This year will be no different as players fly up and down the draft board like waves at the beach. Which players are safe and which ones aren’t? Only time will tell for sure, but there are a few current risers and fallers to look at, ask why, and a current NFL comparison.

Falling:

Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – I have this guy going #11 overall to KC, but the more I think about things, the more I see him sliding on down to the latter half of the first round and possibly completely out of it. We all know about his freakish numbers for a 350 pound guy at the combine, but he also played a Conference-USA schedule without showing a dominant player on the game film. Why is that? I can only figure perhaps he wasn’t properly motivated or challenged by his coaches, or that he just hasn’t developed his football skills yet. Since I haven’t personally studied hours upon hours of anyone’s film myself I hate to blame the Memphis coaches, but I would think a 350 lb guy with the measurables he had should dominate at a smaller school and the simple fact is that he did not. While an NFL strength and conditioning program won’t hurt I don’t think that’s the issue here. I think the guy CAN be a very productive player, and one with Pro Bowl potential, but I see him more and more as a developmental prospect now. My early thoughts are that Poe will be THIS years “That One Guy.” Haloti Ngata is the oft-used comparison physically.

Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama – It isn’t that Upshaw isn’t a talented player or has some huge negatives, or that he should even fall all that far. The issues with him are his tweener size and his narrow job description in Saban’s scheme. He rushed the passer. He was very good at it. However, he had a great cast around him, his team played with a lead pretty much all the time, and as such he wasn’t asked to do much else. He still has a lot of learning to do at the next level especially in defending the run. As a rookie, he may be limited to end/OLB in nickel sets before he hits his stride. I don’t think he’ll fall completely out of the first round; he’s too much of an athlete for that. He’ll need to broaden and deepen his knowledge while asked to play OLB. Melvin Ingram has the advantage of playing both in college; Upshaw does not. His college scheme boxed him in more, making him more of an unknown quantity in that way.

Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame – His is a case of off-field issues overshadowing his ability. A couple of months ago, I’ve seen him as high as 6th overall on a few lists, but he has steadily, albeit slowly, drifted downward. Multiple alcohol arrests in college can mean either he doesn’t learn from his mistakes or hasn’t grown up yet and neither of those are recipes for anything good when you throw millions of dollars at them – not to mention missing out on a different player who actually produces with that pick. I’ll have to let him stew a bit and find out more about him to really be able to tell much more, but those arrests would make me take my own pass with him in the first round. At this point, he could wind up going anywhere from 7 on down but the fact that the question is a part of the conversation with his talent will make him hard to nail down. A top-ten talent with UFA intangibles, he’s a candidate to possibly slide out of the first round completely. His situation generally speaking reminds me of Mario Manningham’s at the time.

Rising:

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M – Ever since the new CBA began protecting owners and GMs from themselves with the Rookie wage scale, we’ve seen Washington overpay crazily with draft picks to jump a mere 4 slots in this year’s draft to get RG3. The existence of the rookie wage scale means teams aren’t shelling out 50-60+ million in guaranteed money to sign a kid who has never played a down as a pro, so they’ve become emboldened to reach early and often for a guy they think (hope) will be a franchise QB. Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder were both huge reaches last year and they played like it. It doesn’t matter when you draft the kid and it’s still up to him to absorb, learn and play. I think Tannehill goes in the top-10 in this year’s draft even though developmentally he’s nowhere near first-round material. He had a good Pro Day so he’s rising a little bit on his showing there, but whoever gets him will overpay, period. He’s simply at the right position at the right time. Ultimate ceiling? Jake Plummer.

Fletcher Cox, DT, MSU – A young guy like Michael Brockers, Cox has some polished moves and is an excellent penetrator from the DT position. He’s got the frame to add 15-20 pounds so he’d stand up to more punishment inside at the NFL level or he can play as a 3-4 end and do it well. If the Panthers want a very good DT, Cox very well could wind up being their pick at #9 overall and be the top DT taken. I’ve been sold on Brockers as the best overall DT for some time now especially when you consider how stifling LSU’s defense vs. the run was last year and Brockers’ play in particular. Both tackles have high ceilings and should be great pros so it’s more a question of which style player you are looking for. The fact that Cox has shown a sustained ability to be a disruptive force tells me he’ll probably be the rookie DT with the most sacks and/or tackles for loss. He’ll have countless more pressure/hurries/blown up plays in general to add to that and you’ve got a unique piece to build a line around. His ultimate ceiling? A Warren Sapp type.

Shea McClellin, LB, Boise St. – This is a case of sunlight doing its job. McClellin has extensive game tape as he’s been on the blue (ew!) field for the past few years and all he does is make plays. He’s all over the field causing all sorts of problems doing all manner of things being a general pain in the…ankle…to opposing offenses. ESPN’s Mike Mayock noted he’s ranked lower than Whitney Mercilus, who was a 1-year wonder at Illinois. Of course, the Illini played a Big Ten schedule to somewhat offset that lack of longevity, but Shea did a lot of damage to a lot of teams at Boise State, and they play a few ranked teams every year and have a great program going. McClellin could go as high as the bottom of the first round when all’s said and done. A team like New England could really use an edge guy with a great motor like Shea, who projects to be an outside linebacker. His ultimate ceiling? A Clay Matthews type.

Jan 1, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn (10) throws a pass during the game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Lions 45-41. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

DENVER AND TENNESSEE: Well the Peyton Manning saga continues today in Durham as he’s working out for the Denver Broncos. The hometown Titans is the other team in the Manning sweepstakes and yesterday they re-signed Pro Bowl Guard Steve Hutchinson and signed Peyton’s old Center, Jeff Saturday. Clearly, Titan owner Bud Adams is doing all he can to sign the HOF QB. With Denver sending the team jet to North Carolina to work Manning out, however, and it appears that the Titans are not a lock to land him. Since Manning is from Tennessee, the Titans would be the natural fit, but I think Peyton developed a good relationship with John Elway during his visit to Colorado. After all, who understands a situation like Manning’s than another HOF QB? The Titans are glad they at least have Jake Locker and hope he has learned the ways of the NFL after a disappointing rookie season. He has work to do. Denver picks at 25, and with a deep DT class, they’re probably eyeing a Michael Brockers and hoping he falls to them there. The Titans probably have one of the best OLs in the NFL by signing Saturday and Hutch (too bad Saturday’s last name isn’t Starsky) and should be looking for WRs and CBs as they lost Cortland Finnegan in FA to the Rams. ‘Dre Kirkpatrick is an option in round one as there’s a good possibility he will be available when the Titans are on the clock at 20. If Manning does sign, they could take a look at a Kendall Wrignt or roll the dice on a Stephen Hill to give the oft-injured Kenny Britt some help.

SEATTLE AND MIAMI: Manning isn’t the only Free Agent that can send ripples through the draft process, either. QB Matt Flynn is visitng with the Seattle Seahawks and is thought to be going to Miami next. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross has swung and missed on things lately more often than batters facing Nolan Ryan back in the day and they appear to be an organization heading the wrong direction. Trading away Brandon Marshall can’t make Flynn happy as Davone Bess is now their top WR. V-Jax signed elsewhere and Miami’s cupboard is bare at the position other than Bess, but they received 2 3rd round picks for Marshall so they’ll be draft-nimble. The big name FA WRs have signed – V-Jax in Tampa Bay and Marques Colston re-signed with the Saints, so look for Miami to improve their WR corps with at least 2 selections in the draft and take a hard look at Undrafted Free Agents post-draft. However, they still need help at RT, a pass-rushing DE, and a competent FS. At #8, they’ll likely pick Best Available because it should be RT Reilly Reiff. Reiff is basically a Matt Kalil clone with better run-blocking skills and has near-flawless game tape. He’s big, strong, nimble, durable and can play either tackle spot. What more do you want from a guy, seriously? Miami HC Joe Philbin may want to rebuild from the inside out, so shoring up the OL is likely their top priority as they do have one good pass rusher in Cameron Wake already. If the brass can convince Flynn they’re going to go OL at 8 to protect him first, and along with Pro-Bowl LT Jake Long, Flynn will likely sign in Miami. If not, look for the ‘Fins to take Ryan Tannehill at that 8 spot and sit a year behind Matt Moore. If they do sign Flynn, Tannehill likely goes to Seattle at 12 and I’ve said from the start that Miami is Flynn’s most natural spot since Philbin was his OC last season in Green Bay. Signing Flynn would mean the ‘Fins have a system QB running the system that he’s shown great aptitude for. Then again, look at the receivers in Green Bay, then look at Miami’s. Brian Hartline, Davone Bess, and Clyde Gates? Thank goodness for Reggie Bush; if he stays healthy again in 2012, he’ll likely be the team MVP. The strange thing is the ‘Fins also have intimate knowledge of Ryan Tannehill since new Dolphins OC Mike Sherman was Texas A and M’s Head Coach last year, so the Dolphins are armed with what no other NFL franchise can possibly have. It will be interesting to see which direction they press. If somehow the Seahawks grab Flynn in Free Agency, Mark Ingram won’t get by them at 12. If he’s gone, Luke Kuechley would help seal the middle of that defense, or perhaps WR Michael Floyd will make a nice toy for Flynn as they already have a solid OL. If the Dolphins like a particular WR other than Floyd, they have the draft-pick firepower this year to trade back into the latter half of the first round where Hill should be available, and he has Brandon Marshall-type size, sub-4.4 speed that Marshall lacked, and as far as we know, just one personality. The big knock on him is he played in an option offense at Georgia Tech. The upside is comparisons to Megatron. If this kid can learn and has a good work ethic, he could wind up being the steal of the entire draft. He’s that talented.

JACKSONVILLE must realize Blaine Gabbert isn’t the answer as they signed former Dolphin QB Chad Henne to shore up play there. Henne’s a decent QB, but his years in Miami proved he’s a bit timid as far as taking many chances downfield. He’s also somewhat erratic not game to game, but play to play. One pass you see and go “wow, nice throw” and the next you scratch your head wondering what he was thinking. His nickname in Miami was “Captain Checkdown,” so that should say something right there. He was rumored to be liked by the Jets, as their OC is Former Dolphins HC Tony Sparano, but Mark Sanchez’ hissy over the Manning talk probably forced their hand and they didn’t pursue Henne. Jacksonville still needs WRs in a desperate way and the same goes for 4-3 DEs. Since the Jags have a history of drafting busts there, they should love Quinton Coples at #7 overall. He probably is about as close as you can get to a lock at this point, and for the record I’m coming around on Coples and his “taking plays off” label. His rep isn’t nearly as bad as a Vernon Gholston’s was, and frankly DEs get tired chasing the QB every play over and over again. Hopefully the new regime in Jacksonville can make sure Coples’ head is on straight and keep him motivated. If they pass on him, they’ll take a WR. It will be very interesting if Justin Blackmon somehow falls here, but he shouldn’t get by the Rams at 6.

SAN DIEGO signed WRs Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal in an attempt to replace Vincent Jackson’s production with two lesser players. Both have their strengths, but neither one is a guy who can help take over a game or make that big play regularly. Royal is a possession guy and has a 1,000 yard season on his resume. The upside is the Chargers should be able to turn attention to their defense and OL in the draft. Hard to say exactly which direction they’ll be going, but a Tackle wouldn’t surprise me – it’s a deep draft for OTs that can play LT, so guys like Stanford’s Johnathan Martin, OSU’s Mike Adams, and FSU’s Zebrie Sanders are all possibilities here and the Chargers need some youth injected into the tackle position. Otherwise, they’ll address the front seven. At 18, Courtney Upshaw or Big Board-riser Lavonte David out of Nebraska would make sense.

BUFFALO: The biggest defensive Free Agent signing this year was the Bills landing Super Mario and making him the highest-paid defender in history. He’s shown great versatility in his career in going from a 4-3 DE and successfully becoming a 3-4 OLB – at 300 pounds! OUCH!!! The point is, he can play either spot and do damage. Give the Bills some credit; they’ve been hitting that porous defense with some talented young players (the failed Aaron Maybin experiment, Marcell Dareus, and now Super Mario) and their offense has, in the last couple of years, been able to move the ball and put some points up. They’re now not-so quietly headed in the right direction and still have the 10th choice in the draft. Could they put a Melvin Ingram opposite Super Mario, following the Denver model last year with Von Miller/Elvis Dumervil? It sure seemed to work out there, but I wonder if they’d not be better served to take an ILB like Luke Kuechley. He’s only 20 years old and one of those sideline-to-sideline tackling machines in the Patrick Willis mold. Luke also showed up bigger and more athletic at the combine than many expected, so he kept his draft stock as high as it could be for the position – a borderline top-10 pick. He’d shore up Buffalo’s run defense in the middle and Super Mario will be putting some heat on opposing QBs – neither of which the Bills D was good at last season. Without the injury bug hitting again, they could be setting up for a playoff run, if only a wild card in the AFC Pats division. If they want to follow the “win your division first” model, Ingram will be the likely choice (if available) because of the presence of the New England Patriots.

Sep 3, 2011; Arlington, TX, USA; Oregon Ducks running back LaMichael James (21) is tackled by LSU Tigers defensive tackle Michael Brockers (90) at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

A quick forward…

Making Mock drafts at this point in the season is very tough as the jury is still out on a lot of these players. But to those who enjoy playing “Fantasy-GM” before they go to bed, or pour over their madden franchise, this one’s for you… (more…)