With weeks to go before any games are played, I wanted to go ahead and give my projections for the 2013 season.  The first division I will be projecting will be the NFC South.  I will be taking a look at each team’s offense, defense, and special teams and predicting their order of finish.

Atlanta Falcons:

Sep 30, 2011; Atlanta, GA, USA; Carolina Panthers fullback Mike Tolbert (35) is tackled by Atlanta Falcons defenders in the second half at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Liles-US PRESSWIRE

• Offense:  Matt Ryan returns after leading the team to a 13-3 season last year.  He passed for 4719 yards with 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions at a 68.6 % completion rate.  The receivers are led by Roddy White and Julio Jones who combined for 171 catches, 2549 yards, and 17 touchdowns.  Tony Gonzalez decided to come back after considering retirement to provide Ryan a security blanket over the middle.  The running game will be led by Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rogers, who was the 3rd down back, with Michael Turner having been cut.
• Defense:  The Falcons lose John Abraham and his team leading 10 sacks.  The hope is his production will be replaced by Osi Umenyioura and Jonathan Massaquoi.  Umenyioura in particular, is coming in highly motivated after not being brought back by the Giants. They also picked up a couple of players to help with the pass rush in the draft in Malliciah Goodman and Stansly Maponga.  Leading Tacklers Stephen Nicholas and Sean Weatherspoon head up the linebackers.  While in the secondary, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford were drafted to help replace Dunta Robinson who was also cut.  Thomas DeCoud and William Moore return at Safety with a few players drafted to provide depth like Zeke Motta and Kemal Ishmael.
• Special Teams:  Leading scorer Matt Bryant returns at kicker.  Matt Bosher will handle the punting duties.  In the return game, Jacquizz Rogers will return kicks with several players competing to return punts.

Carolina Panthers:

• Offense:  The offense begins and ends with Cam Newton.  Newton passed for 3,869 yards with 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  In addition, he ran for 741 yards with 8 more touchdowns.  DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart assist with the running attack with Mike Tolbert at Fullback and Kenjon Barner brought on as a third down back.  Steve Smith heads into his 12th season still leading the receiving corps.  Brandon LaFell and Domenik Hixon will compete to be the number two.
• Defense:  Carolina returns the core of a pretty salty defense.  Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy bring the pass rush.  Dwan Edwards, Star Lotulelei, and Kawann Short clog up the middle against the run and collapse the pocket against the pass.  Luke Kuechly mans the middle, with Thomas Davis and Jon Beason on the outside.  In the secondary, competition will be fierce for the corner position.  Charles Godfrey will be at free safety, after that every other position is up for grabs.
• Special Teams:  Graham Gano and Brad Nortman handle the kicking and punting duties as of now.  The return positions will be looked to be handled by Ted Ginn and possibly Barner.

New Orleans Saints:

Courtesy of thesportsbank.com

• Offense:  Drew Brees headlines an explosive passing offense.  The rushing offense still needs work.  The 25th ranked running attack lost Chris Ivory, so Mark Ingram will be expected to pick it up in his now third season along with Pierre Thomas.  Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Jimmy Graham are the main receiving threats.  Kenny Stills was brought on as depth through the draft.
• Defense:  The Saints will be moving to a 3-4 defense under Rob Ryan, with Akiem Hicks and Cameron Jordan at the Ends and Brodrick Bunckley at Nose.  Johanthan Vilma will be the leader of the defense. Curtis Lofton will be probably be at the other inside spot.  Several players will battling for time and the two outside line backer positions.  Kenny Vaccaro was brought in via the draft to provide competition for Melvin Jenkins and Roman Harper at the safety position.  Patrick Robinson and Jabari Greer are the corners.
• Special Teams:  Garrett Hartley and Thomas Morestead handle the punting and kicking duties.  Darren Sproles and Travaris Cadet if he makes the team will return kicks and punts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

• Offense:  Josh Freeman returns as the starter at quarterback, but is playing for a contract extension and now may be watching over his shoulder with the drafting of Mike Glennon out of NC State in the third round.  That situation may bear watching.  The “Muscle Hamster” Doug Martin will lead the running game after rushing for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns last year.  Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams will be the main receivers.
  

  Courtesy of biographyplayers.com

• Defense:  The big story on defense was the trade for cornerback Darrelle Revis.  The secondary will need to be top-notch against the pass because  the Bucs let their leader in sacks  from last year Michael Bennett sign with the Seahawks.  Da’Quan Bowers and Adrian Clayborn are expected to pick up the slack here.
• Special Teams:  Connor Barth again will handling the kicking duties and Michael Koenen will punt.

My predictions for the division are as follows:

1- Carolina Panthers

2- Atlanta Falcons

3-New Orleans Saints

4-Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I think the Panthers will be challenging the Falcons for supremacy in the NFC South.  I also feel that the Panthers will be playoff bound because of a punishing running game and a suffocating defense.  The Saints and Bucs have a lot of problems on defense which I think will hold them back.  What  do you think Panther fans?  Agree or Disagree, let us know in the Comments Section below.

Go prognosticate THAT one, eh?

None of that changes the grocery lists teams have going into the NFL draft this coming Thursday, however. Here they are as I see them:

Atlanta Falcons

needs: TE2, RT, CB, DE, LB

The Falcons let veteran DE, and their only pass rushing threat, John Abraham walk in free agency and opted to sign the slightly younger ex-New York Giant Osi Umenyiora instead. With Abraham still on the market, look for the Falcons to try to re-sign him after the NFL draft at a reduced rate. Yes, they have one proven pass-rusher but NFL teams these days need at least two (look at 2012 and Von Miller/Elvis Dumervil in Denver) unless you’re the Houston Texans with J.J. Watt.

Jan 7, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish tight end Tyler Eifert (80) catches a pass defended by Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Dee Milliner (28) during the first half of the 2013 BCS Championship game at Sun Life Stadium. Elfert was ruled out of bounds on the play. Mandatory Credit: Eileen Blass-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons could go for the top TE in the draft, Tyler Eifert, to learn behind future HOF TE Tony Gonzalez in order to make the transition more smoothly for when Gonzalez retires for real.

A more serious need right now is at corner as they cut Dunta Robinson and lost Brent Grimes in free agency. The draft is stacked with good corners, however, and the Falcons could find at least one in the second round and beyond. They also need someone to replace Tyson Clabo, but could have him already on the roster in the form of their third-round pick in 2012, OT Lamar Holmes from Southern Mississippi, but these days it’s not a bad idea to have 3 tackles that can play the all-important position to block the blazing-fast edge-rushers in today’s NFL.

The Falcons were pretty soft against the run, although they forced opponents into catch-up passing mode quite often. Two wins they should have lost – both against the heavily-talented Carolina Panthers backfield – exposed their difficulties in defending a determined running opponent. They could use someone with good speed and instincts, even if not a great pass rusher, to help handle Cam Newton…the Falcons’ defense had no answer for him in either meeting in 2012.

Sep 8, 2012; Winston Salem, NC, USA North Carolina Tar Heels guard Jonathan Cooper (64) blocks during a pass play in the second quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at BB

Carolina Panthers

needs: OT, OG, WR, TE2, DT, S, OLB

Those Panthers’ fans who watched the games last year saw an offensive line that played very inconsistently and struggled at times to run the football. The lack of depth on the interior offensive line was splayed wide open when starting RG, Geoff Hangartner, was forced to play center when All-Pro center Ryan Kalil went down due to injury and they had no answer to plug in at the RG spot. The RG and RT (Byron Bell) spots are the two biggest holes to fill on the entire offense. They also have nobody that looks like they can step in and become a #1 WR to replace aging star Steve Smith, so there are several places for an offensive player to make their mark and start as a rookie.

The line also suffered from the lack of a solid blocking TE once Jeremy Shockey wasn’t re-signed after 2011. It showed, as starting TE Greg Olson may be a top-ten receiving TE, but his blocking leaves a lot to be desired. Any blocking TE that can catch at all would be welcome, and probably available at any point in the draft. Just don’t look for a star here.

September 22, 2012; Columbia, SC, USA; Missouri Tigers defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (34) jogs off the field against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Anyone who watched the games against the same Atlanta Falcons knows Haruki Nakamura isn’t the best pass defender around. I call him “He of the Three Inch Vertical Leap,” and time after time he got burned on deep balls that he simply couldn’t get to and was turned around flailing on a number of occasions. He should be the last safety off the bench, and the Panthers could really use a playmaker on the back end to better help take advantage of their good group of pass-rushing defensive ends.

They also could use depth at OLB after releasing SLB James Anderson. If Jon Beason and Thomas Davis can remain healthy, they’ll have a top-ten group of linebackers but that’s a difficult situation with their history of injuries. Still, even after 3 major knee reconstructions, Davis had over 100 tackles for the second time in his career, and good for him. It also means the Panthers may be satisfied enough here and with Jordan Senn and others in depth that they will ignore this need and go take care of more obvious ones – like the offensive line, DT, and safety…depending on how ready Ron Rivera feels that D.J. Campbell is to take over the role full-time as a safety.

New Orleans Saints

needs: CB, OLB, S, OT, DE

The Saints mean Drew Brees and Drew Brees means 40+ pass attempts per game. The team lost LT Jermon Bushrod to free agency. They signed Jason Smith, which tells me they desperately need help at the position and if Brees’ blind side can’t be protected, the offense is in some serious trouble. They could be a bit of a surprise player in the LT gambit, but could also wait for one of the second-tier guys. Don’t forget they still are paying for “Bountygate” in the form of a forfeited 2nd round pick.

Otherwise, they pretty much need help anywhere on the defensive side of the football as they supplanted the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers as the worst defense in NFL history last year. That, and the firing of first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo (previously fired as the Head Coach of the St. Louis Rams when Jeff Fisher took over), should say it all. The switch from the 4-3 to 3-4 means they need to re-vamp their defense anyway and there’s no time like when it is a horrible mess. Look for them to get at least one edge-rusher.

It’s irrelevant anyway. Sean Payton and his breesy offense is always trouble.

September 22, 2012; Columbia, SC, USA; Missouri Tigers defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (34) before the game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

needs: DT, DE, TE, CB

Odd team to figure draft needs because they had the best rush defense and worst pass defense in the NFL last season. So much for investing heavily in 4 early-round defensive linemen, but Gerald McCoy is still better than average when he’s healthy. Oddly enough, the Bucs probably have the best offensive line in the NFC South, so they can concentrate on improving their pass defense. They have weapons at WR and RB. Muscle Hamsters and such…but could use a good TE threat.

Since they gave up their #13 overall pick to the New York Jets by adding the NFL’s best cover corner, Darrelle Revis, they can scratch that need off their list. They could use another corner as Eric Wright didn’t play well at all in 2012. Their earlier trade for San Francisco 49′ers safety Dashon Goldson solidified the position opposite rising second-year pro from Alabama, Mark Barron, so they’ve already helped their pass defense. Most of the pieces are there except maybe an off-corner in the defensive backfield to pair up with Revis.

It’s official now and Osi will be wearing the red and black uniform of the Atlanta Falcons this fall. For the Falcons’ part, they’re getting a younger, healthier version of DE John Abraham, whom the Falcons let go test the free agent waters in the offseason.

The result is more or less a wash…they lose one accomplished pass rusher and signed another to take his place. However, it isn’t the only move the Falcons have made and the entire NFC South should be an even harder division to break out ahead of the pack than last year for the Carolina Panthers.

Atlanta also let go RB Michael Turner, replacing him with former St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson. While Jackson has a lot more career carries than does Turner, he’s also held up better over his career. Turner was obviously past his prime, and Jackson is either there or past his as well. The difference is that Jackson is the complete back that Turner never was.

Turner was basically a one-trick pony; hand the ball off to him and let him pound the rock between the tackles. Granted, he was incredibly good at his “one trick,” but Steven Jackson is a guy who can stay on the field for all 3 downs since he can block in pass protection as well as catch the ball out of the backfield.

As a result, the Falcons will have to do fewer substitutions at the positions as they did when Michael Turner was there and thereby opponents won’t be able to get clued-in as to what play they might run, given the makeup of the Atlanta backfield on a particular play.

Jan 23, 2013; Mobile AL, USA; New Orleans Saints assistant head coach Joe Vitt and head coach Sean Payton watch the Senior Bowl north squad practice a day after NFL commissioner Roger Goodell (not pictured) reinstated New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton after his season long suspension. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Also, don’t forget TE Tony Gonzalez un-retired and will be a Falcon for 2013.

The New Orleans Saints get the biggest “bounty” of all as they’ll have their highly-touted Head Coach, Sean Payton, returning and will be at the helm from now onward. Recall, he was banned from football for the entire season last year and the Saints struggled mightily – especially in the first half of the season.

That’s not going to be a problem now and the evil genius of Payton along with his All-Pro quarterback, Drew Brees, can plot and scheme on the offensive side of the ball. Expect them to start out the season with a chip on their shoulder as they intend to prove they belong atop the NFC South, Falcons be damned.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers faded toward the end of the season but still finished 7-9 along with the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints. They have a team with a lot of youth in key positions and will undoubtedly be wiser heading into pre-season games and should grow from there.

What does this mean for the Carolina Panthers’ chances at finishing at least second in the division, or trying to win it outright?

With the salary cap restrictions and subsequent inability to grab solid free agents, other than Ted Ginn, Jr., it will be an uphill climb. As such, they were unable to upgrade the problem areas they had last year – namely RT, OG, DT, OLB, and FS. With only 5 draft picks coming to them next month, GM David Gettleman can nary afford to miss on any of them….and the odds are that he will miss on at least one if not more. Such is the nature of the NFL draft and the unpredictability of people that have never played an NFL down.

Yes, Gettleman has added low-cost options like DT Colin Cole, who very well could improve play over Ron Edwards, but the team still has a lot of question marks.

The one position where they may do nothing more is at cornerback. I recently spoke with Carolina Panthers’ fan favorite Captain Munnerlyn and got his ideas about the corners as a group and will be posting that interview next week. A bit of a “teaser” is that Captain is really psyched about the group they have, now that Gettleman has added Drayton Florence and D.J. Moore.

Overall, the cap problems have largely forced the Panthers to stand still while especially the Falcons and Bucs have had some room to make moves…not to mention the Saints getting their head coach back.

Rivera’s going to really earn his continued employment as Carolina’s head coach in 2013 with a strong team effort.

Let’s hope Rivera’s there in 2014 as well.