My initial reaction?

Only idiots have their fantasy league drafts before the PRE-season begins.

No personal insults intended for those of you that have, but think about it: A) You’re drafting without vital information about which newcomers are looking up (ie: a T.Y. Hilton or Doug Martin) and which ones aren’t looking too good so far (ie: a Dontari Poe, Morris Claiborne) and B) You cannot account for injuries that invariably occur during the preseason (ie: Pat Angerer, Trent Richardson).

Also, as I write this, the breaking news of the day is that Giants DT Shaun Rogers is out for the season with a blood clot in his leg. While Rogers is hardly a fantasy stud even in fantasy leagues that have a DT position, this is just the latest setback in the Giants’ interior DL and will affect their ability to stop the run. Things like this have ripple effects.

May 23, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (95) takes a break during the Giants OTA at the their training facility. Mandatory Credit: Jim O

So, remember the Golden Rule for Fantasy Commissioners: Don’t draft your league too early! Nobody wants a league where one or more owners gives up due to multiple injuries to their “top players” before the season even begins.

In this article, let’s take a look at some rookies that could provide some good upside with a mid-to-late round draft choice:

Brian Quick before Stephen Hill

Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams – there are mixed ideas about this kid. He comes from small Appalachian State in Boone, NC, so conventional wisdom is that he should take some time to get up to speed with an NFL playbook. At 6’4″ and 220 pounds, he ran a 4.55 at the NFL Combine. These stats basically mirror those of Bears’ WR Brandon Marshall, who came from UCF (Central Florida).

Remember back in 2007 when App. St. won in Ann Arbor against the Michigan Wolverines? Quick wasn’t a part of that game, but players like Chad Henne and Mario Manningham were on Michigan’s side. Armanti Edwards was the game’s leading passer, and he’s now a starting safety for the Carolina Panthers. It demonstrates the strength of their program.

By contrast, Stephen Hill is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the entire WR class for 2012. The kid averaged – averaged – over 28 yards per catch in college at the much larger school, Georgia Tech. However, he’s even more raw than Quick is and has to learn the route tree besides posts and go patterns. Even though the Jets are thin at the position, Hill has a ton of work in front of him before he becomes a consistent threat in the passing game. He’s worth a late-round pick as a 4th WR perhaps but don’t look for much production from him early.

You also have to take into account the team’s offense and who exactly the quarterback is. Would you rather have your “sleeper” WR pick catching passes from Mark Sanchez or Sam Bradford?

Bradford had a bad year last year but he was hampered by injuries. Mark Sanchez has yet to prove he’s a franchise quarterback. Bradford showed he can be that guy in 2010 when he was a healthy rookie.

Aug 9, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) catches a pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Tony Carter (32) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Alshon Jeffery before Rueben Randle

Randle is the better-known player as Jeffery had a dismal final season for the Gamecocks, so Randle will probably be headed off the board first. This is a case of perhaps TOO much talent – on the New York Giants’ WR roster. Randle will compete against Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz for targets. Alshon Jeffery likely will start the entire season opposite Brandon Marshall, making Jeffery the team’s no.2 option. While Randle may also start for his Giants, there’s more talent there to compete with. Both teams have strong quarterback play, with a sizable edge going to Eli, but again…Randle is one among many while Jeffery is one among two. The math favors Jeffery, but Randle should produce also. I just think Jeffery might be the better value of the two in terms of fantasy draft position vs. upside this year.

Some random notes:

RB David Wilson of the Giants could wind up being a fantasy points machine. He was drafted to be the “hammer” to Ahmad Bradshaw’s shifty style of running. Bradshaw has a history of getting dinged up with some injuries, and Wilson looks to be the more natural goal-line back of the two. Wilson not only has the potential to be a TD vulture, but will probably see at least a few games where Bradshaw’s either out or hurting, allowing Wilson to get more touches.

RB Lamar Miller of the Dolphins should be considered in PPR leagues. The Philbin regime has begun and he runs a West Coast style offense. With the lack of receiving experience on the team, I see a lot of different guys catching balls this fall. I’d be surprised if any single guy gets more than 60 catches and backs and TEs should see a higher percentage of total targets as a result. Reggie Bush may line up in the slot or run patterns out of the backfield and Miller should see his share as well with his speed. While I probably wouldn’t draft him in regular leagues, he might be worth a later pick in PPR leagues.

Don’t “reach” for Justin Blackmon – There are two good reasons NOT to draft Justin Blackmon high: Laurent Robinson and Blaine Gabbert. Having said that, if he does fall into the 6th round or beyond, which is highly doubtful, THEN you might take a flier on him. Just remember for WRs that half of it is about who is throwing the ball. With Blaine Gabbert looking marginally better so far than he did last year, he has a long way to go as well in his second year. When you add in Laurent Robinson on the other side, Blackmon’s opportunities look to be limited by circumstance – and especially if Pocket Hercules continues his holdout into the regular season.

The 2012 NFL season looks especially rich with untested skill-position rookies looking to make an immediate impact.

The good:

Andrew Luck looks like the real deal. Surprise!

The Rams announced after their initial preseason contest that they would not be playing a game in London in 2013 or 2014, but will still take on the New England Patriots there at Wembley Stadium on October 28th of this year. They got blown out by the Colts, 38-3, the previous day. This is not what I expect from a Jeff Fisher-led squad especially with the improvements they’ve made to their roster the past season.

However, the Rams did have a bright spot in rookie CB Janoris Jenkins. He covered very well and had a chance to make a play or two but was just unlucky – he had position to make an interception or at least defend the pass, but the bullet pass went through his hands and wound up being caught by Colts rookie T.Y. Hilton in a nice play where Hilton had to really focus on the deflected pass.

So far, it looks like both Jenkins and Hilton are the real deals, and both teams desperately need their contributions. If Jenkins can adjust a bit more but continue on his current trajectory, the Rams should field one of the better CB tandems in the league with Cortland Finnegan on the other side.

T.Y. Hilton made several catches last night and his 4.3-speed and return ability should provide a nice spark for this very young offense. He’s very elusive, has good hands, and plays bigger than his 5-10 size would suggest. If he can attack from the slot, he could be a dangerous weapon.

Aug 11, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker (10) runs and looks for an open receiver during the 1st half against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Titans quarterback Jake Locker appears to be winning his camp battle with Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck, 36, has waning skills and threw two interceptions last weekend while Locker had zero. Reports are that he’s consistently outplayed the veteran placeholder and at this rate, Jake will be starting week one.

Miami Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill showed poise that pretty much everyone – myself EXCLUDED – didn’t think he’d show so soon. Many analysts expressed surprise that he looked so good under the circumstances…he was injured last season at Texas A&M and only had around 2 and a half years of experience at QB since he’s a converted WR. I knew that he’d come into camp TEACHING THE OTHER QBs Mike Sherman’s system since the man was his college Head Coach. I’ve been saying from since he was drafted that he’d be starting FROM WEEK ONE (go back and check if you want) and the injury to David Garrard could well be the catalyst that gives Tannehill some playing time in order to vault over Matt Moore for the job. Moore has always been a poor practice player (although his effort has never been in question). Ryan showed he’s not afraid to throw into tight spaces, and I’m sure a guy like Arizona Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt would kill to have Tannehill in his fold. See below under “the bad.”

The bad:

Colts’ 2011 leading tackler MLB Pat Angerer is out for at least six weeks with a fractured foot. With the Colts’ Lucky offense looking good albeit in their initial preseason contest, this has to be of grave concern. The Colts’ defense hasn’t been known as stout against the run in recent years and this invites opponents to make the Colts show them they can stop the run…especially because running the ball means keeping Andrew Luck on the sidelines.

Do we see a similar strategy at work here as has been attempted for the past 12 years by Indy’s opponents? I think so!

Aug 10, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Dontari Poe (92) is blocked by Arizona Cardinals center Lyle Sendlein (63) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Chief’s ultra-gifted rookie DT Dontari Poe is continuing his old college ways – in other words, he’s not shown much on the field. He started out as the second-string nose tackle entering camp with the hopes he could show that he belongs as the starter. At 350 pounds and 4.9-speed, he’s easily the most gifted NT on the team physically. The bad news? He’s now working with the third team. NOT the direction GM Scott Pioli and HC Romeo Crennel had in mind when they nabbed him with their top overall pick.

The Cowboys and the Raiders offenses looked horrible last night. The Cowboys managed only 210 total yards from scrimmage in a forgettable 3-0 victory. Dez Bryant was, yet again, getting “nagging” injuries before even this game during camp and his short career has been plagued by them. The lone bright spot was that Darren McFadden, the Raiders #4 overall draft pick four years ago, looked completely recovered from the foot injury that ended his season last year when he was the NFL’s leading rusher before getting injured. He only had 2 carries for 20 yards, but his 16-yard scamper showed his moves are back.

Good thing too, since Carson Palmer was 3 of 6 with an INT. Thanks, Hue Jackson.

The Arizona Cardinals apparently have two gun-shy signal-callers. First, I was never sold on Kevin Kolb, having had only a few starts in Philly before the Cardinals, desperate to replace retired Kurt Warner, ponied up a “Glob for Kolb” with a huge contract only to see him out-played (or “sucking” less) by journeyman Red John Skelton, who makes about 30 times less money than Kolb. After the Cards’ initial preseason loss to KC, Whisenhunt lamented that they had one-on-one coverage multiple times downfield, but the QBs were not trying to get them the ball. With All-Pro WR Larry Fitzgerald on one side and a very physically talented first-round pick in Notre Dame rookie Michael Floyd on the other, I’d have to like my chances throwing it up for either of those two guys to haul in at the highest point.

Skelton went 3 of 6 or 35 yards and an INT while Kevin Kolb went 1 for 5 for 21 yards. Looks like the Cardinals are going to lean more and more on their running game as both their quarterbacks continue their gun-shy ways from last year.

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1) The Colts are most likely going to win the “Suck for Luck” campaign. With Peyton Manning coming back next season, are you okay with the Colts drafting Andrew Luck? Will he be the quarterback of the future?

I’m more than OK with it, but I’m still not convinced the Colts will actually take Luck. Bill Polian likes to be right, and he has held out on replacing Manning for a long time. I’m hopeful, but not sold.

2) Curtis Painter is a hot mess, is there anyone on the Colts’ offense that could step it up and provide a few numbers in the W column?

Not as currently constituted. Delone Brown has looked pretty good for a rookie running back, at times, but the O-line is in shambles as always. Kyle Orton could have helped, but the he was “too expensive.” The Colts are committed to losing, regardless of their end game.

3) Cam Newton is taking the NFL by storm, what are the Colts going to do in order to stop him from putting up huge numbers?

Pray? Seriously, maybe they’ll just full out blitz every play. Maybe DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart can be the next back to rip off 200 yards against the Colts.

4) Who is the surprise player for the Colts this season? While they haven’t been amazing, there seem to be a few bright spots on the roster.

For me, it’s been Pat Angerer without a doubt. He still leads the NFL in tackles and has pretty much made Gary Brackett expendable.

5) Predictions?

Panthers 42, Colts 17.

There you have it folks, not even a writer can be optimistic for the Colts this week!