Nov 12, 2011; Manhattan, KS, USA; Texas A

Top players have always gone at the top of their respective drafts and that hasn’t changed with the new CBA and rookie wage scale. The rookie wage scale is overall a good thing for the league for a number of reasons.

The days of drawn-out contract talks are gone. You’re drafted at X, you make Y money. It’s that simple. What that means is the veterans who have EARNED respect and a roster spot through their play actually get paid fair value now instead of seeing some cocky rookie come into camp with $50 million in guaranteed money not having ever played a single down.

The Law of Unintended Consequences means that this “redistribution of income” gives teams a freer hand in the draft and the ability to slide up and down the board more as they see fit. There have been previous seasons where a team might really want the #2 or #3 pick for a particular player but didn’t make the move up because the cost was too high in both money and draft picks. Sure, you can still waste a draft pick on risk/reward guy but that hasn’t changed.

What has changed is the financial commitment to these guys – it’s been cut by more than half from 2 years ago.

The other more unintended result is that teams are more willing than ever to part with draft choices because the double-whammy of a bad decision is now gone.

The result is another good thing for both the league and the fans. If RG3 winds up an unlikely bust, Washington will still be out a number of first-round draft picks, but the financial hit won’t be nearly as smackdownish. RG3 should get a contract similar to Cam Newton’s last year, a 4-yr $22 million deal with a $14.5 million signing bonus.

As a second-derivative consequence, the skins will have a lot more cap room over the next 2-3 years BECAUSE of that lack of high picks. The result of THAT means they’ll be even more heavily involved in Free Agency, with the cash and cap room to actually do it, than most others will be. They won’t be servicing even the reduced salaries of highly-touted rookies.

Certainly not chump change, but these days if you want a $60+ million dollar guaranteed contract, you better be an established superstar (Mario Williams, Peyton Manning, Megatron) who is in his prime (or in Manning’s case, hopefully not far removed from it) with an incredible body of work behind you.

And that’s who SHOULD be making the big money.

We fans had known this for decades, and the NFL and NFLPA finally fixed it. You want a pick, money’s now not an issue. You go get him if you have the trade bait to deal, whether it’s draft picks, veteran players, or some combination of the two.

The other result is much more activity and uncertainty on draft day itself. We’ve had one completed draft with the second of the new era nearly upon us, and there have already been two blockbuster trades involving the first round. Last year, it was Atlanta trading up with Cleveland to get Julio Jones, a #2 WR to Roddy White that the Falcons thought would be the final piece that would allow them to overtake stubborn division rival New Orleans.

We all know about Washington’s trade. BTW off the subject a little here, but am I the only one who sees the total irony that it was Washington that completely overpaid to move up 4 spots? I guess art imitates life in this respect with the budget shenanigans the politicians in Washington have been up to for a long time. I just thought it was was funny that it HAD to be Washington that profusely overpaid!

Now that this trade has been done, it doesn’t mean the wheeling and dealing is over.

Ryan Tannehill is a second-round talent at best who could wind up going in the top 10 because of the premium on the QB position. The NFL has been headed for more of a 7-on-7 style passing league with the run as somewhat an afterthought these days and we see that in how teams draft.

RBs and MLBs slide down the board as opposed to previous years while QBs, pass rushers and CBs are moving upward. It wasn’t that long ago that Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, and Cadillac Williams went 2-, 4-, and 5- in the draft. These days it’s rare for 3 RBs to go in ALL of round one and I don’t see 3 going in the top 5 again under current rules. Ever.

It’s the QBs that are now filling the void. Because the prices got cheaper in 2011 (for rookie arms), teams are much, much more willing to roll the dice, expose some future draft choices, and trade up to grab that player that they feel could put them into playoff contention. In a QB-driven league, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out what position that usually is.

We will know how much and how desperate a certain team is depending on where Tannehill is drafted. My money is on either the Dolphins at 8, or the Browns at 7, using their pick from last year’s Atlanta/Jones deal to package with a 2nd rounder and possibly next year’s first to pry the 7th overall from Jacksonville, one of the NFL’s neediest teams.

In the past 10 days or so, the talk is now that a team will have to trade with the Vikings at #3 to be certain of getting Tannehill. If you look at RG3 and Andrew Luck vs. Ryan Tannehill, in NO WAY, SHAPE OR FORM is Tannehill even close to the level of the likely top two young arms in the draft. He shouldn’t normally even go in the first round, but again, we saw Gabbert and Ponder go 10th and 12th last season and the pressure in Miami is very high and fans are really focusing their anger on owner Stephen Ross and GM Jeff Ireland. It’s now almost expected they’ll move up to #3 and nab Tannehill or risk being literally run out of town. Amazing that (Miami Marlin manager) Ozzie Guillen isn’t even the most hated sports figure in his own city!

Teams are still punished on the field for poor drafting; they just aren’t paying out the cash for poor play which emboldens them to take chances.

The point to all this is simply that, with the rookie wage scale and QBs being as sought after as ever, we have a recipe for a lot of unexpected movement up through draft day along with QBs being overdrafted by an entire round or more simply due to the combination of need and relatively cheap price (in dollars) they can be had for…and it also makes stockpiling of picks (you listening, New England?) even that much more of a smart thing to do.

This leads to another effect we’ve yet to witness. Teams like the Pats who love to stockpile picks now don’t have such a barrier to actually move UP and draft someone they like. The better teams generally have fewer weaknesses (thus the Atlanta/Jones deal last season) so if the Patriots see someone sitting at, say, 14 or 15 that they “gotta have,” they might be smart to spend those 2 first-rounders to jump up and grab a sliding Quentin Coples or a Fletcher Cox, or perhaps they stay put in hopes a Dontari Poe slides down to them. We’ll know by the end of the month!

Oct 8, 2011; Birmingham, AL, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs defensive lineman Fletcher Cox (94) tackles UAB Blazers running back Greg Franklin (24) from behind at Legion Field. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-US PRESSWIRE

Assuming all-world LSU CB Morris Claiborne is off the board at #9 overall, the Panthers should be able to pick the #2 or #3 overall defensive player there. Unless Justin Blackmon is available at that same spot, there should be a group of 3-5 prospects that Ron Rivera & co. will be eyeing very closely, with each highly-touted youngster having some question marks. The idea is A) not to completely miss on your top-ten choice and B) get the guy who will make your team better the most. I don’t see Michael Floyd, the ND WR, going to the Panthers even considering Steve Smith is entering a contract year and the Panthers really have no other good WRs on the roster. I’d be very surprised if Smith stays in Carolina after 2012 with his age and likely salary demands, so there’s a lot to consider.

The press likes to highlight the measurables and harps on them constantly, I think the Combine is seen more as a way for players to show what NFL officials already know from the tape, and all else being equal, the tape wins out. After all, games aren’t won or lost on a player’s 3-cone drill time and the interview process is largely ignored unless someone makes a big splash one way or the other. Claiborne had a whopping “4″ on his Wonderlic test and it won’t hurt his draft stock at all. Makes me wonder why they even give the thing.

Here are my own choices, in descending order of likelihood of being drafted by the Panthers in the first round:

Michael Brockers, DT, LSU – He is the best pure run-plugger of any of the DTs in the draft. The fact that he did so in college in the SEC on a regular basis overcomes his average at best measurables at the NFL Combine. I’ve always said game tape trumps the Combine, and the Combine can be as much of a trap for some players (Remember Vontaze Burflict’s poor performance, then his whining that ‘the coaches done messed me up’ afterward? He’s an example of exactly how NOT to act) as it puts some players on the map (Dontari Poe, Stephen Hill) or solidifies/answers questions about others (Luke Keuchley). Brockers is a case where it did neither one. While his results in the physical drills were more remarkable for his lack of ability than supporting what was seen on tape, it means the game tape is still the best indicator of how well a player should perform at the next level. “Cat-quick” agility that he does possess would certainly fit in with the Panther meme, wouldn’t it? The old saying describes this guy “The greatest players perform their best in big games.” Brockers had 7 tackles (a LOT for a DT) in the BCS Title game, one of those for a loss and added a blocked FG. He can play any position in the Panthers’ 4-3 defense and his natural pass-rushing ability is starting to develop. He plays through to the whistle and when you add in no off-field issues OR injury history along with his youth, he’s as close to a can’t-miss prospect as there will be on the board.

Luke Kuechley, MLB, Boston College – This tackling machine wowed at the combine, coming in heavier and faster than thought. He also did extremely well in all the drills, showing team officials exactly why he’s led the BC Eagles in tackles the past three seasons. Comparisons to Zach Thomas, the former Dolphin standout, abound and if he can play at that level he should go a long way to solidify the middle of the Panthers’ defense against the run. Since Ron Rivera is a former linebacker, there’s a very real chance they could take this special MLB up here and address the DT position in round two since the class is so deep this year. This is where draft strategy and knowledge of overall talent levels could work in the Panthers’ favor, as I don’t think they’ll find a MLB with this sort of ability in the second round and could grab Keuchley while hoping a Jerel Worthy is around for their second-round choice.

Fletcher Cox, DT, MSU – Another kid who plays hard through the whistle, his interior pass-rush skills are more developed than are Brockers’ and he’s similarly young like the LSU product. He can play any position in the 4-3 also like Brockers. However, he was suspended for the team opener for violating “team rules,” but came back to play hard the entire season to prove his dedication to his craft. He’s a better gap penetrator than is Brockers, but relies too often on the bull-rush than some of his toolbox moves and that’s not going to work in the NFL. He has good quickness but not elite explosive power off the ball to knock back so it will be harder to knock NFL linemen off-balance so he can use his agility to take advantage of situation to get by them. He doesn’t hold up as well as Brockers does against the run, but pressures the pass pocket up the middle better than Brockers. This kid actually has some growing to do as well, so he could be quite imposing by his 2nd or third year, but has a few more question marks than Brockers does.

Quentin Coples, DE, UNC – this is the most enigmatic one of the group. He is a top-ten talent who may slide because of questions on his motor, but the Panthers really need an edge rusher opposite Charles Johnson. Coples has the athletic ability, burst and explosion to be a force in the Panthers’ scheme, but I think he has too many concerns over his desire/attitude to take this high. If he can put those to rest through the interview process, there’s a chance he could be Carolina’s #9 pick, but I think he’ll slide a bit further at this point. Anything is possible, though.

All the questions of who goes where will be answered in a few weeks, but then another set of questions will arise: “What were they THINKING?” Fans are rarely satisfied and love to “Monday Monrning Quarterback” the moves their favorite team does, but this writer feels that either of the two tackles or the MLB would all be productive and SAFE top-ten picks.

With the NFL draft just around corner it’s time for a 2012 NFL Mock Draft. There are a lot of interesting prospects in this year’s class. You have some guys that like Dontari Poe, who didn’t show much ability when it came to his tape, but in the combine he put up numbers that compared equally to some of the best defensive tackles to ever step onto a football field. Then you have guys like Dwayne Allen, who posted very mediocre numbers at the combine, but when you turn on his tape he looks like a no-brainer to be the first tight end taken. So without further ado lets get started.

1. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Is just simply too good to pass on. He’s as close to a sure thing as you get when it comes to the quarterback position.

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis)
Robert Griffen III, QB, Baylor
Great combination of accuracy, arm strength, and speed. At the combine his 40 time (4.31) was in close comparison to Michael Vick. Could turn the Redskins into a playoff team in his first year.

3. Minnesota Vikings
Matt Kalil, OT, USC
Gives second year QB Christian Ponder some protection. They could use another weapon at receiver, but if your quarterback doesn’t have time to throw it then it doesn’t really matter who he’s throwing to.

4. Cleveland Browns
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.
This will finally give Colt McCoy a chance to succeed. Blackmon is just the type of explosive player the Browns need in order to make McCoy’s job a lot easier.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Lageratte Blount is a good back, but he does have some fumbling issues and is a liability on passing downs. Richardson would provide Alabama with the perfect mix of speed and power in the backfield. This could be scary tandem for years to come.

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington)
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Floyd is a bit of a reach as the 6th overall pick, but the Rams are in desperate need of weapons to put around young quarterback Sam Bradford.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Quentin Coples, DE, UNC
Jacksonville could use a receiver for Blaine Gabbert to throw too, but I don’t think they’re going to reach for Kendall Wright this early and they are also in need of a quality pass rusher, so Coples would make perfect since.

8. Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
Tannehill isn’t really top 10 material, but the Dolphins are in desperate need of a QB, so they don’t really have a choice. Tannehill does have some upside. He played a little bit of receiver in college so he is a tremendous athlete and has the ability to make all the throws, so he’ll be an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.
9. Carolina Panthers
Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
There are a couple other different positions the Panthers could use this pick on (CB, WR, LB), but Ron Rivera is a big defensive guy and he’ll definitely want to have some that can be the anchor in that interior defensive line. And Poe has the potential to be a great run-stuffer with his size (350 bls). He also showed off his athletic ability at the combine, running the 40 in under 4.9 seconds. He’s bit of risk considering his lack of production at the college level, but he has all the physical skills to be dominant if he just puts forth the effort.

10. Buffalo Bills
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Cornerback isn’t necessarily the Bills primary need, but Claiborne has top 5 talent, so if he falls to you at pick 10 you have to take him.

11. Kansas City Chiefs
Luke Keuchly, LB, Boston College
Keuchly is just an absolute beast. He’s a tackling machine and he as a motor that never stops running. He’ll be one of the leagues top tacklers every year.

12. Seattle Seahawks
Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
The Seahawks have needs at both defensive end and linebacker. That makes Ingram a perfect fit. He has the strength to play the defensive line and the speed to rush off the edge as a linebacker. Has endless amounts of athletic ability.

13. Arizona Cardinals
Riley Rieff, OT, Iowa
Whether it’s Kevin Kolb or John Skelton at quarterback, both men need protection. Kolb found himself lying on the ground on the majority of pass plays and Rieff can make sure that happens a lot less.

14. Dallas Cowboys
Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan loves having versatile defensive lineman and Brockers fits that mold perfectly. He has the ability to line up inside at the defensive tackle position, but also is athletic enough to where you can put him at defensive end.

15. Philadelphia Eagles
Mark Barron, S, Alabama
The Eagles also have a need at linebacker but they patched that up by adding Demeco Ryans. Ever since the departure of Brian Dwakins the Eagles have been lacking a game-changer at the safety position. Baron has the ability to come in right away and make plays in week 1.

16. New York Jets
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
The Jets could use another pass rusher off the edge in there 3-4 defensive scheme and Upshaw is a perfect fit for that.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)
David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
The Bengals have needs at receiver and cornerback too, but Andy Dalton proved he can be a starting quarterback in this league, so they need to invest in that and get him some protection. DeCastro is a good pass blocker and could also open up holes for newly acquired running back, BenJarvis Green-Ellis.

18. San Diego Chargers
Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Chargers need some more protection for Phillip Rivers, so this is a no-brainer.
19. Chicago Bears
Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia
Over the last couple years Jay Cutler has spent more time lying on the ground on passing downs than standing up. If they don’t get him some protection his body won’t be able to make it past 30.

20. Tennessee Titans
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
With the departure of Cortland Finnegan the Titans are in dyer need of a cornerback. Kirkpatrick comes from a National Championship winning team and has guarded some of the best receivers in college football. His covering skills could use a little work, but he has good size and is a great athlete; he is also dependable in run support as well.

21. Cincinnati Bengals
Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Jenkins looked to be a top 10 pick 2 years ago when he was still at Florida. But his off-field issues have made scouts and GM’s alike a little bit wary of him. However, Jenkins is a tremendous talent, and if he can get his character issues together then he will end up being an absolute steal at pick 21.

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta)
LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
Most scouts want to downgrade James’ ability because of his size. But the fact of the matter is that the kid can flat out play ball! He led the NCAA in rushing in 2010 and finished second behind Monte Ball this past season. In my opinion he is by far the most talented back after Trent Richardson, and the Browns are in desperate need of a running back with the departure of Peyton Hillis.

23. Detroit Lions
Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Personally I don’t think Gilmore is worthy of a 1st round pick. I constantly saw him getting beat by SEC receivers and he never really did anything to make me say, “Wow, that kid can play”. However, the Lions need a cornerback to give them a more complete defense and at this point in the draft Gilmore would technically be the best available. He does have some upside with his size (6-1, 190 lbs) and has a decent set of wheels.

24. Pittsburg Steelers
Don’t’a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
Hightower is a perfect replacement for James Farrior and should be able to make an impact from week 1.

25. Denver Broncos
Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
I’m sure Peyton Manning would love for Denver to draft him another playmaker at receiver to make his job a little easier, but the Broncos also need help on the defensive line and coach John Fox is a defensive minded coach. The Broncos need a big body that can anchor the interior of the defensive line and Cox is a perfect fit for that. He has the ability to not only be a run-stuffer, but can also provide a pass rush from the interior.

26. Houston Texans
Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
Wright would be the perfect compliment to Andre Johnson. He’s a smaller receiver, who possesses a lot of speed and can really stretch the defense. You give Matt Schaub (or T.J. Yates) time to throw the ball with these weapons and big plays are going to happen.

27. New England Patriots (from N.O)
Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
The Patriots need to get more push on the defensive line and get after the quarterback. Mercilus led the NCAA in sacks this year (with 16) and could wreak havoc in the backfield of those AFC East opponents.

28. Green Bay Packers
Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson
The Packers are looking for a guy who can line up opposite of Clay Mathews and rush the passer. Branch could be the perfect fit. He played mostly defensive end in college, but at 6-4, 260 lbs, he could easily convert to a 3-4 outside linebacker. He also has a great motor and is always flying around at 110%.

29. Baltimore Ravens
DeVonte David, LB, Nebraska
The Ravens could use another outside linebacker for their 3-4 defensive scheme and David would make perfect sense for them. He can tackle well and get to the quarterback. And with Ray Lewis as a mentor how could he not be successful?

30. San Francisco 49er’s
Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
Hill is a little bit of a raw talent coming from a Georgia Tech offense that focused its game plan around the triple option. However, Hill has great size (6-4, 220) and speed (4.30 40-yard dash) and has already shown he has the ability to make big plays in the passing game.

31. New England Patriots
Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut
The Patriots are trying to rebuild their defensive line through the draft. By taking Whitney Mercilus with the 27th pick and Kendall Reyes with this pick they are beginning to look like one of the best defensive lines in the AFC.

32. New York Giants
Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
Eli Manning is the face of this franchise. He has two super bowl rings and single handedly carried the Giants through two super bowl runs in the playoffs. You have to protect your investment and that’s exactly what the Giants will be doing by drafting Mike Adams.