Dec 24, 2011; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (90) walks to the field prior to the game against the San Diego Chargers at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

The 2011 Detroit Lions broke into the playoffs, right on schedule with the 3-year plan. The first season you endure, the second one you mature, and the third one you arrive. The team rode a few star players to a 10-6 record and a Wild Card berth in the playoffs.

Sorry I couldn’t think of another good rhyme.

The Lions are taking a talented but unbalanced team into 2012. I’ll explain, but here’s their 2012 draft at a glance:

1 23 Riley Reiff T Iowa
2 54 Ryan Broyles WR Oklahoma
3 85 Dwight Bentley CB Louisiana-Lafayette
4 125 Ronnell Lewis DE Oklahoma
5 138 Tahir Whitehead LB Temple
5 148 Chris Greenwood CB Albion
6 196 Jonte Green CB New Mexico State
7 223 Travis Lewis LB Oklahoma

The 2011 Detroit Lions were one of the most unbalanced offenses in the league and 2012 would seem to be no different. QB Matt Stafford proved he could stay erect for an entire season and responded with what would have been hailed as one of the great seasons any QB ever had statistically. He passed for 5,038 yards, 41 TDs versus 15 INTs. Having the best wide receiver in the NFL, Calvin Johnson, doesn’t hurt. Megatron had 96 catches with 1681 yards and 16 TDs. Folks, if you do the math, that’s 6 catches, 105 yards and a TD EVERY SINGLE GAME on average.

TE Brandon Pettigrew, another team top draft pick, is coming into his own with an 83-777-5 showing in those categories last season. While that’s under 10 yards a catch, it means he’s doing what he’s asked to and seems to be a steady if not flashy target there.

With their running back situation in a mess due to injury and legal troubles, the Lions are looking to Jahvid Best to split duty between runner and receiver out of the backfield. The problem is his history of injuries with concussions. He and everyone around him have proclaimed him healthy and that’s certainly a good thing, but you can’t be sure of anything until he’s taking an NFL-style beating in real games. Second year man Mikel Leshoure is going to be starting the season on a 2 game suspension due to the personal conduct policy – weed arrests.

Um…does’t marijuana make you slow and lethargic? Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount is that way naturally, but I know of no RB that needs to become slower and even more lethargic.

When I mean unbalanced, I’m not speaking of hulking defensive tackle Ngamukong Suh specifically. In fact, I’m actually including him as part of the help – if he himself can keep a lid on his temper this season. He’s the anchor of arguably the deepest front four in the NFL. The Giants are every bit as good on the outside but lack Detroit’s inside strength.

2012 top pick Nick Fairley hasn’t even been a force yet unless you include off-field issues. You really can’t get away from them when you talk about this team. After a much-talked about junior season at Auburn, he followed teammate Cam Newton into the NFL’s first round last year. A nagging foot injury held him back last season and yet another marijuana arrest got his name in the news this offseason.

Suh is the most talented DT in the league, bar none. Nobody has all the package of natural talent, moves, and cerebral nature that he brings to the table and it’s a shame a few nasty but very public incidents has clouded that fact. He’s strong as an ox, nimble as a great left tackle, and as thoughtful as any good MLB. Veteran Corey Williams will start beside him once again at right defensive tackle.

Ouch.

DE Cliff Avril, another very good and very young talent at 26 years old is planning to sit out of camp over his franchise tender that he hasn’t yet signed. That’s a fluid situation but should be settled by opening day. 12-year veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch will start on the right end of the line. That’s a great mix of young talent and veteran players. They generally go 6 deep in the DL rotation with no real drop-off.

Behind them in their 4-3 base sets will be MLB Stephen Tulloch as their signal caller. Unfortunately, there’s not much help beside him. DeAndre Levy and Justin Durant combined with Tulloch for a whopping five sacks as a trio for all of 2011 along with fewer than 300 tackles.

That’s not a very good performance to say the least.

As below-average as the linebacking corps is, the secondary is worse. The only bright spot is safety Louis Delmas and his steady play. He’s in that oft-overused “hard-hitting” safety group and isn’t known as a playmaking ball-hawk. What that translates to is he gets there after the pass is completed and makes the tackle before the other player has much of a chance to bust a move. In other words, he doesn’t give up many big plays. Well hoo-ray. He’s a SAFETY and that’s his JOB! I suppose on this defense “doing your job” is lauded. Oh – the Lions will no longer have the services of CB Aaron Berry either. He had a DUI and 3 counts of assault filed against him in 6 weeks. CB Chris Houston had five picks and 14 passes defended, which are decent statistics for a corner, but he’s no shut-down guy.

I’ve actually been watching the Lions assemble this team since they took Matt Stafford in the 2009 draft. Up until this year, they’ve been drafting the “best player available” with most of what they’ve done. Delmas was a second-rounder I believe. Megatron was already there but was a 2nd pick overall. Same with Suh. They even took Nick Fairley with a deep DL before last season, and in 2010 took TE Brandon Pettigew in the first round despite apparent huge needs elsewhere.

It appears they’re taking a similar approach in the 2012 draft. T Reilly Reiff was undoubtedly the top player on many teams’ boards when he fell along with all the other offensive linemen down the board. Detroit’s tackles are not great but not that weak either…yet they nabbed Reiff. Expect him to start and play right tackle in the NFL with some left tackle ability and give them some insurance on the bench no matter who actually gets the starting nod.

Second round pick Ryan Broyles from Oklahoma could well work his way into the starting slot WR role at 5’10″ 188 lbs and owns nearly every school receiving record as it is. The 2011 incantation of Detroit’s squad was heavy on the passing game with little running game or defense beyond their front four. It was thought they’d really address that defense hard, but you either take the guy at the top of your board when your pick comes up or you don’t.

It looks like Detroit has been taking the BPA again in 2012. It’s a fascinating but maddening strategy in that it can yield you help in places you don’t really need it or makes you skip over places where you do. With the best WR in the game and veteran speedster Nate Burleson on the other side, WR was not a position of great need. Broyles could really make this offense a monster if he translates. We’ll see how the rookies do soon enough.

With their 2012 draft in mind and their playoff-bound team 2011 in mind, the Detroit Lions took…..

…two steps back. With the apparent improvement of DAAAA Bearssss in the offseason coupled with the preseason turmoil, the Lions will probably miss the playoffs this year and finish third in their division. They may battle the Bears down until week 16 or 17 but the character issues are catching up with them. They got deeper in some areas but not really that much better…especially on defense, where they need to improve the most.

Next up…the Green Bay Packers.

Apr 28, 2011; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell speaks before the 2011 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

It was bound to happen sooner or later. The Dolphins continue their hapless ways ever since owner Stephen Ross and GM Jeff Ireland gave (then-unemployed coach) Jim Harbaugh a Laurel and Hardy Handshake while (then-Miami Head Coach) Tony Sparano was left twisting in the wind wondering about his own future. Two weeks later, Ross publicly proclaimed Sparano as “the best man for the job” before firing him later the same year halfway into the season.

So much for their “secret” flight and “secret” meeting.

They couldn’t land Manning. They didn’t want to pay Flynn or Alex Smith. The last QB the Dolphins drafted in the first round was a kid named Dan Marino. Marino is currently AARP’s Men’s Life Ambassador. That’s how long it’s been.

He’s 50, and tore cartilage in his knee Easter weekend playing beach football with his family, so he’s not pulling his own Brett Favre act to rescue the Dolphins anytime soon.

Now, Miami fans need to realize there is no “second coming.” There is only one Dan Marino, so get OVER it okay?

Since Marino retired in 1999, the Dolphins have had more different starting QBs (16) than any other team.

Since Miami fans had their “Suck for Luck” campaign last fall and Matt Moore is still the top guy, will they pull a “Blow for Barkeley” refrain this year?

From the looks of it…yeah, they will.

You see, recent NFL draft history says Miami will take Ryan Tannehill with the 8th pick overall, assuming Cleveland or someone else doesn’t jump them. NFL draft history is replete with overdrafted QB busts. JaMarcus Russell. Ryan Leaf. Heath Shuler. Todd Blackledge.

Now it’s even worse. Blaine Gabbert should’ve been a third-rounder at best and Christian Ponder a second-rounder only because he played a pro style offense at FSU. Yet, they both went in the top 12 out of need.

In addition, the rookie wage cap meant teams wouldn’t be out $60+ million dollars if they were wrong. That’s like letting teenagers drink; it’s a recipe for disaster.

Only time will tell if the Redskins just imploded their franchise for years to come but that’ll be played out this fall. RG3 has all the tools, both physically and intellectually to be a success and a star. Tannehill…not so much.

Keep in mind a few things that are unique to the Miami Dolphins when trying to prognosticate whether or not they’ll take Tannehill at #8 overall:

1- Miami Offensive Coordinator Mike Sherman was Ryan Tannehill’s Head Coach at TAMU, so he knows the kid better than anyone. Some say this will greatly help Tannehill’s eventual timetable for learning the offense while others say Sherman’s input will be the determining factor in whether they’ll draft him at all. Both may be true. Another thing that’s true needs to be considered. Mike Sherman got FIRED from the head coaching job at TAMU. Hmm.

2- Miami has a history of drafting QBs in the second round. Stars like…John Beck, Chad Henne, and Pat White come to mind just in the past 5 years. The best QB they’ve had since Marino was probably Scott Mitchell, a 4th-round pick that was to be Marino’s backup but started for about a season when Marino went down. He had a number of years to learn the system behind a HOF QB and did it well. He was traded and never heard from again.

3- Ross and Ireland try to put up a happy face, but too many ex-Dolphins players have let it be known that nobody wants to play for them. It has become a standing joke since Channing Crowder was cut last season and blabbered about it on his radio show. Since then, others have pretty much backed up what he said, and what he said wasn’t flattering.

While the last point means nothing as far as drafting (drafted/conscripted, it’s all the same), it makes this year’s puzzle even harder to solve.

Ross and Ireland said long ago “we have a plan.”

So did the Cylons.

With their track records, do they really think fans will support them? “Oh…you have a PLAN!! oh! Well, then, that’s different!” No. Nothing so catchy as “Planning for Manning.” Thank GOD “Tannehill” has no obvious easy rhymes!

Ross and Ireland are trying to keep a calm face on a franchise that, behind closed doors, has to be anything but calm. NFL Draft history says they’ll reach and grab Tannehill at 8. Their own history (personally and the franchise) says they won’t.

In 2007, the ‘fins last draft before the “Ireland Era” (eww) began, they took Ohio State speedster Ted Ginn, jr. 9th overall and then John Beck in the second round. Aside from one stellar game against the Jets when he returned two kicks for TDs, Ginn was a bust. He’s been since traded to SF where he has continued to bite it.

It turns out while Ginn has a very high top speed, it takes him 100 yards to reach it. He’s now dropping passes for the 49′ers. Oops.

John Beck couldn’t beat out Rex Grossman in Washington last year. Oopsie.

In 2008, Ireland’s first season as GM, he made Jake Long the top overall pick. It was thought a good, safe choice at the time and that’s how it turned out. Build from the inside-out, you got your star LT/blind side protector, so far so good.

Then, he took Chad Henne with the 57th overall selection the next round. Henne wasn’t exactly a bust, but he never did develop into a franchise-QB, either, and was not re-signed when he became an RFA after last season. He’ll be starting over Gabbert in Jacksonville by week 9 if he doesn’t snatch the job in training camp. Gabbert’s that bad.

The next year he quizzed Dez Bryant on his feelings about his mother’s having been a prostitute. Nice!

So, what does all this tell us? Not all that much, really, other than Miami is a very troubled franchise.

I think when all is said and done, this is what it’ll boil down to:

If Miami (prudently) does NOT take Tannehill at #8 overall, they’ll probably draft either Reilly Reiff of Iowa, and filling a gaping hole at RT while Jake Long enters a contract year and will also become “leverage” by default in those talks, or they’ll draft Fletcher Cox, Melvin Ingram, or possibly Luke Kuechley for the defense. If they don’t take Tannehill, Reiff’s the best, safest choice on offense and Kuechley’s a future All-Pro in the mold of Zach Thomas but with actual athletic ability. Scary, scary good player and IMO a Blue-Chip along with Luck, RG3, Kalil, Richardson, and Claiborne.

If they reach for a Michael Floyd, a top-ten talent with Undrafted Free Agent intangibles, that will be the start of a very loud, gutteral scream out of South Florida…a desperate (and likely final) attempt by the current regime to get correct where the previous one failed in 2007.

Then look for Brandon Weeden to be gobbled up by the ‘fins in the second round to complete their next reverse-QB/WR tandem. And Weeden’s QB rating was the worst of the top few tiers when under pressure (which was highly infrequently) at Oklahoma State. Tannehill’s QBR under pressure was actually pretty good, and that’s promising for his NFL future. It indicates good pocket presence.

But Tannehill isn’t the immediate answer, and I think the Dolphins actually know this, but the fans are clamoring for a franchise QB and have been for 15 years.

I think that this time around, Ireland is boxed in by an increasingly irate fan base and not throwing away their top pick. He has the added pressure of not having a #1 WR, signing the feared Legadu Nannee a couple of weeks ago. He’s a warm body, that’s it. They need playmakers in the passing game as well as a quarterback, but Floyd is a risky, risky pick especially for the Dolphins.

The #8 pick will tell a lot more than just what Miami thinks of Ryan Tannehill. It’ll speak volumes about the pressure Ireland is facing. If he’s the cool customer he and Ross want us to think, he’ll draft Cox, Reiff, or possibly Kuechley. Coples is too much of a risk in the top ten as well.

If they draft a WR other than Justin Blackmon, it’ll scream of desperation.

If they cave and draft Tannehill, it’ll be out of sheer stupidity feeling the heat from the fans. Updating resume’s should be next on the list.

One thing is certain, and that’s this: No matter who the Dolphins draft at #8 overall, it’ll tell us a lot about the inner workings of the franchise.

Jan 1, 2012; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn (10) throws a pass during the game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. The Packers defeated the Lions 45-41. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

DENVER AND TENNESSEE: Well the Peyton Manning saga continues today in Durham as he’s working out for the Denver Broncos. The hometown Titans is the other team in the Manning sweepstakes and yesterday they re-signed Pro Bowl Guard Steve Hutchinson and signed Peyton’s old Center, Jeff Saturday. Clearly, Titan owner Bud Adams is doing all he can to sign the HOF QB. With Denver sending the team jet to North Carolina to work Manning out, however, and it appears that the Titans are not a lock to land him. Since Manning is from Tennessee, the Titans would be the natural fit, but I think Peyton developed a good relationship with John Elway during his visit to Colorado. After all, who understands a situation like Manning’s than another HOF QB? The Titans are glad they at least have Jake Locker and hope he has learned the ways of the NFL after a disappointing rookie season. He has work to do. Denver picks at 25, and with a deep DT class, they’re probably eyeing a Michael Brockers and hoping he falls to them there. The Titans probably have one of the best OLs in the NFL by signing Saturday and Hutch (too bad Saturday’s last name isn’t Starsky) and should be looking for WRs and CBs as they lost Cortland Finnegan in FA to the Rams. ‘Dre Kirkpatrick is an option in round one as there’s a good possibility he will be available when the Titans are on the clock at 20. If Manning does sign, they could take a look at a Kendall Wrignt or roll the dice on a Stephen Hill to give the oft-injured Kenny Britt some help.

SEATTLE AND MIAMI: Manning isn’t the only Free Agent that can send ripples through the draft process, either. QB Matt Flynn is visitng with the Seattle Seahawks and is thought to be going to Miami next. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross has swung and missed on things lately more often than batters facing Nolan Ryan back in the day and they appear to be an organization heading the wrong direction. Trading away Brandon Marshall can’t make Flynn happy as Davone Bess is now their top WR. V-Jax signed elsewhere and Miami’s cupboard is bare at the position other than Bess, but they received 2 3rd round picks for Marshall so they’ll be draft-nimble. The big name FA WRs have signed – V-Jax in Tampa Bay and Marques Colston re-signed with the Saints, so look for Miami to improve their WR corps with at least 2 selections in the draft and take a hard look at Undrafted Free Agents post-draft. However, they still need help at RT, a pass-rushing DE, and a competent FS. At #8, they’ll likely pick Best Available because it should be RT Reilly Reiff. Reiff is basically a Matt Kalil clone with better run-blocking skills and has near-flawless game tape. He’s big, strong, nimble, durable and can play either tackle spot. What more do you want from a guy, seriously? Miami HC Joe Philbin may want to rebuild from the inside out, so shoring up the OL is likely their top priority as they do have one good pass rusher in Cameron Wake already. If the brass can convince Flynn they’re going to go OL at 8 to protect him first, and along with Pro-Bowl LT Jake Long, Flynn will likely sign in Miami. If not, look for the ‘Fins to take Ryan Tannehill at that 8 spot and sit a year behind Matt Moore. If they do sign Flynn, Tannehill likely goes to Seattle at 12 and I’ve said from the start that Miami is Flynn’s most natural spot since Philbin was his OC last season in Green Bay. Signing Flynn would mean the ‘Fins have a system QB running the system that he’s shown great aptitude for. Then again, look at the receivers in Green Bay, then look at Miami’s. Brian Hartline, Davone Bess, and Clyde Gates? Thank goodness for Reggie Bush; if he stays healthy again in 2012, he’ll likely be the team MVP. The strange thing is the ‘Fins also have intimate knowledge of Ryan Tannehill since new Dolphins OC Mike Sherman was Texas A and M’s Head Coach last year, so the Dolphins are armed with what no other NFL franchise can possibly have. It will be interesting to see which direction they press. If somehow the Seahawks grab Flynn in Free Agency, Mark Ingram won’t get by them at 12. If he’s gone, Luke Kuechley would help seal the middle of that defense, or perhaps WR Michael Floyd will make a nice toy for Flynn as they already have a solid OL. If the Dolphins like a particular WR other than Floyd, they have the draft-pick firepower this year to trade back into the latter half of the first round where Hill should be available, and he has Brandon Marshall-type size, sub-4.4 speed that Marshall lacked, and as far as we know, just one personality. The big knock on him is he played in an option offense at Georgia Tech. The upside is comparisons to Megatron. If this kid can learn and has a good work ethic, he could wind up being the steal of the entire draft. He’s that talented.

JACKSONVILLE must realize Blaine Gabbert isn’t the answer as they signed former Dolphin QB Chad Henne to shore up play there. Henne’s a decent QB, but his years in Miami proved he’s a bit timid as far as taking many chances downfield. He’s also somewhat erratic not game to game, but play to play. One pass you see and go “wow, nice throw” and the next you scratch your head wondering what he was thinking. His nickname in Miami was “Captain Checkdown,” so that should say something right there. He was rumored to be liked by the Jets, as their OC is Former Dolphins HC Tony Sparano, but Mark Sanchez’ hissy over the Manning talk probably forced their hand and they didn’t pursue Henne. Jacksonville still needs WRs in a desperate way and the same goes for 4-3 DEs. Since the Jags have a history of drafting busts there, they should love Quinton Coples at #7 overall. He probably is about as close as you can get to a lock at this point, and for the record I’m coming around on Coples and his “taking plays off” label. His rep isn’t nearly as bad as a Vernon Gholston’s was, and frankly DEs get tired chasing the QB every play over and over again. Hopefully the new regime in Jacksonville can make sure Coples’ head is on straight and keep him motivated. If they pass on him, they’ll take a WR. It will be very interesting if Justin Blackmon somehow falls here, but he shouldn’t get by the Rams at 6.

SAN DIEGO signed WRs Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal in an attempt to replace Vincent Jackson’s production with two lesser players. Both have their strengths, but neither one is a guy who can help take over a game or make that big play regularly. Royal is a possession guy and has a 1,000 yard season on his resume. The upside is the Chargers should be able to turn attention to their defense and OL in the draft. Hard to say exactly which direction they’ll be going, but a Tackle wouldn’t surprise me – it’s a deep draft for OTs that can play LT, so guys like Stanford’s Johnathan Martin, OSU’s Mike Adams, and FSU’s Zebrie Sanders are all possibilities here and the Chargers need some youth injected into the tackle position. Otherwise, they’ll address the front seven. At 18, Courtney Upshaw or Big Board-riser Lavonte David out of Nebraska would make sense.

BUFFALO: The biggest defensive Free Agent signing this year was the Bills landing Super Mario and making him the highest-paid defender in history. He’s shown great versatility in his career in going from a 4-3 DE and successfully becoming a 3-4 OLB – at 300 pounds! OUCH!!! The point is, he can play either spot and do damage. Give the Bills some credit; they’ve been hitting that porous defense with some talented young players (the failed Aaron Maybin experiment, Marcell Dareus, and now Super Mario) and their offense has, in the last couple of years, been able to move the ball and put some points up. They’re now not-so quietly headed in the right direction and still have the 10th choice in the draft. Could they put a Melvin Ingram opposite Super Mario, following the Denver model last year with Von Miller/Elvis Dumervil? It sure seemed to work out there, but I wonder if they’d not be better served to take an ILB like Luke Kuechley. He’s only 20 years old and one of those sideline-to-sideline tackling machines in the Patrick Willis mold. Luke also showed up bigger and more athletic at the combine than many expected, so he kept his draft stock as high as it could be for the position – a borderline top-10 pick. He’d shore up Buffalo’s run defense in the middle and Super Mario will be putting some heat on opposing QBs – neither of which the Bills D was good at last season. Without the injury bug hitting again, they could be setting up for a playoff run, if only a wild card in the AFC Pats division. If they want to follow the “win your division first” model, Ingram will be the likely choice (if available) because of the presence of the New England Patriots.