Oct 16, 2011; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Fred Jackson (22) runs with the ball and scores a touchdown as New York Giants cornerback Aaron Ross (31) chases during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Perlman/The Star-Ledger via US PRESSWIRE

In 2011, the Buffalo Bills started strong but didn’t have the overall talent and depth to last the season and faded. The longtime lower-echelon team from the AFC East has been on the rise since their last couple of first-round flops, DE Aaron Maybin and RB C.J. Spiller. Of all the AFC East teams, the Bills look to have the best shot at giving the Patriots a scare in 2012 for the divisional crown.

Here’s their 2012 draft:

1 10 Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
2 41 Cordy Glenn T Georgia
3 69 T.J. Graham WR North Carolina State
4 105 Nigel Bradham LB Florida State
4 124 Ron Brooks CB LSU
5 144 Zebrie Sanders T Florida State
5 147 Tank Carder LB Texas Christian
6 178 Mark Asper G Oregon
7 251 John Potter K Western Michigan

Let’s first take a bit of a look here first. I think they had one of the top drafts of any NFL team, and I’m not even particularly high on Stephon Gilmore. While he has good speed and is very crafty, he is susceptible to the double-move and cannot be left on an island. I don’t think he’ll ever be a “shut-down” type corner, and at #10 overall one would think that would be the bar for the position.

The Bills fooled nearly all outside observers by taking Cordy Glenn early in round two and announced plans on making him ultimately their left tackle. Everyone (including myself) felt like the 350 pound light-footed Glenn would be asked to be a guard where we thought he’d dominate. Uh-uh. Ever since the Bills rather inexplicably got rid of cornerstone LT Jason Peters several years ago, they’ve struggled to replace him and even refused to use a high pick on the position until now. Glenn has the talent to succeed at LT but a lot of polish need be applied. Keep an eye on him though because he’s one of those freakish guys who are apparently too quick for their mass. Glenn is one that defies the eye test as he can move around.

Think former RB Jerome “The Bus” Bettis and his quick feet and that should give you an idea of his athleticism. For good measure, they added T Zebrie Sanders in the 5th round – a guy who some had mocked as high as the bottom of the first round. In the 2012 draft, ALL linemen slid down but probably none as much as Sanders did. CB Ron Brooks in the 4th was overshadowed at LSU by Peterson and Claiborne and could be a steal for them.

Perhaps the Bills feel differently, but I saw too many South Carolina games where Gilmore got burned on the deep ball. That’s something he’ll have to work on, but the Bills are going to be particularly difficult for opposing teams to game-plan for their defense. Gilmore CAN excel early if he’s in a zone-coverage scheme or some sort of zone-blitzing scheme, and this brings me to my next point: the Bills have a number of players that can play different schemes. Bills GM Buddy Nix even said during the combine that since defenses are in the nickel about half the time, “scheme versatility” is a high priority.

With that in mind, they went out and got the most coveted defensive free agent in years when Mario Williams hit the market. The 300 pounder has already proven he can play a 3-4 OLB/DE or put his hand in the dirt more often as a 4-3 end. We all know of the man’s skill, production, and reputation. This is a team building with one goal in mind:

Beat the New England Patriots.

When you’ve got linemen and linebackers that can play multiple positions in multiple fronts, it’s a “two-fer.” One, it makes “matchup issues” with opposing offenses somewhat less problematic in general and two, it creates doubt in opposing offenses. Just because the Bills have a particular 11-man group in the huddle on defense doesn’t necessarily tell you who will line up where or even what formation they might use.

With Super Mario chasing and hitting Tom Brady, the idea is to limit the time he has to make a decision. This is where Gilmore DOES make sense. If they’re in a zone, Gilmore will bait QBs and nobody – not even Tom Brady – is immune to falling for it once in a while IF he’s under constant pressure. Gilmore’s biggest strengths are his cunning in zone pass defense, his leadership, and his tackling.

Having such liberal passing rules in today’s game, the only proven way to slow down a good passing attack is with pressure. You just do not see those “coverage sacks” these days as you did 10 years ago and everybody knows it. If Shwane Merriman can show any sort of his old form of 4 or 5 years ago, things are going to be brutal for opposing quarterbacks.

My concerns about Gilmore’s deep man-coverage ability aside, the Bills look to be building a very intimidating defense and are using every legal trick in the book to help that uncertainty fester in opposing teams’ offensive game plans.

On the offensive side, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have people pushing for his job every year but nobody has unseated him. This year, at least, he’s “The” guy. He’s played inconsistently at times but he hasn’t had a lot of weapons at his disposal. I’ve always thought RB Fred Jackson was underrated and he’s proven it the past couple of seasons. He did suffer an injury last season which in my opinion was the teetering point that started the slide after their unexpectedly good first half of the season and C.J. Spiller actually had a couple of productive games for them as his replacement. If Spiller can finally live up to expectations, the Bills ground game could be as potent as anyone’s. The potential is there at least.

Buffalo’s main weakness now is the lack of targets for Fitz to throw to. WR Steve Johnson had 1,004 yards and 7 scores last year but they don’t have a proven guy to pair with him and no threats at the TE position. That’s a problem they need to solve and do so with their existing roster if they’re going to push the Pats. I think they’re one more year away.

My feeling on the team overall is that they’ve got the pieces in place on defense to be a top-5 or top-10 squad but still have some work to do on the offensive side. They’re a team that has been making strides towards respectability in fits and starts. Since they finished last year fading instead of improving, my grade for 2012 is….

One step forward.

Next up: the Carolina Panthers.

Sep 10, 2011; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers quarterback Barrett Trotter (14) throws a pass as Mississippi State Bulldogs lineman Fletcher Cox (94) closes in during the first half at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit John Reed-US PRESSWIRE

The Panthers have three big needs they need to fill with this draft and two of those needs could be filled with their 1st round selection. Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississppi State) is the guy I would go after with that 9th overall pick, and if he is off the board when Carolina’s pick comes up, then I would draft Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College). I highly doubt both of these guys will be taking in the first 8 picks, so we should have a shot one of them. However, if both men are gone then maybe Quinten Coples (DE, UNC) is the guy you take. But I’ll be fine with just about whatever Carolina decides…unless they decide to select Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina). I think Gilmore is the most overrated player in this year’s draft and is nowhere near deserving of being a top 10 pick.

However, corner is definitely an area the Panthers need to address in this year draft, so no matter if they take a DT or LB in the first round, they have to draft a corner in the 2nd round. Maybe a guy like Janoris Jenkis (CB, North Alabama) will fall to us or Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) might fall as well. If both guys are gone then I’d really love take Trumaine Johnson (CB, Montana). He’s tremendous size and speed, and could help out our defense immediately.

November 12, 2011; Boston, MA, USA; Boston College Eagles linebacker Luke Kuechly (40) gestures to the sideline during the third quarter of a game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the third quarter at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Ivins-US PRESSWIRE

We don’t have a 3rd round pick, so in the 4th I think it would be a good idea to take a linebacker if we don’t draft Kuechly in the 1st. Keenan Robinson (LB) from Texas should still be available around then. But if we do take Kuechly then I would try to bolster our receiving corps a little bit with our 4th round pick and take a guy like Ryan Broyles (WR, Oklahoma). He’s a smaller, quick receiver, and could be the heir apparent to Steve Smith.
In the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds I think we should just be looking to add depth to the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the linebacker position. However, we could use another safety who can give Sherrod Martin a legitimate battle for his job during training camp, so if a guy like Justin Bethel (S, Presbyterian) is still on the board in the later rounds then I would definitely pull the trigger and draft him. (if you want to see some of Justin’s freakish athletic ability, then watch this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08RJgDJS8Dg)
This should definitely be an exciting draft as the Panthers try to fill some holes in the defense as they gear up to have a playoff caliber season. And if they are going to do that then they have to draft players at the Defensive Tackle, Linebacker, and Cornerback positions.

Apr 28, 2011; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell speaks before the 2011 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

The Draft is coming up fast now, and the Panthers are in the home stretch run on deciding how to approach the rebuilding process in year 2 under the Ron Rivera regime.

My previous mock drafts all had LSU DT Michael Brockers going to the Panthers at 9 despite everyone’s ravings about Dontari Poe’s legendary Combine effort. I knew that he would slide when reality set in as it seems to do every season. Some guys get a big initial boost from the Combine and stick but others get the boost and slide down the polls faster than Newt Gingrich did post-South Carolina Primary time. I knew that he had pedestrian game tape from Memphis, a Conference-USA team and even said he’d slide down, possibly to the bottom and/or completely out of the first round.

He’s been slowly but surely pulling his Paul Simon “Slip-Slidin’ Away” impression ever since. The second half of the first round is where he will probably wind up if he gets by the Kansas City Chiefs.

Neither kid will be drafted by the Panthers at ninth overall. I’ve always liked MSU’s Fletcher Cox because of the unique interior/gap penetrating style he had in college. He also answered any “intangibles” questions that might come up with his play. He was suspended for the first game in 2011 for violating unspecified team rules. Normally, this isn’t a huge deal by itself if it only happens once – kids sometimes need to be reminded of their place on the team.

Cox responded by playing lights-out football for the rest of the season. That’s the sort of character GMs WANT to see, and Cox’s tool set makes him stand apart from the other top-5 DT prospects in this year’s draft. He had 5 sacks last season in college and has very good upper-body strength to fight and knock interior OL off-balance enough to use his agility to beat them. He’s also very fast for his size, running a sub 4.8-40 at the Combine.

Sure, Michael Brockers is more stout against the run than Cox, but he’s also 25 pounds heavier. Both have the frame to add a little weight, and I think Cox will eventually play in the NFL at around 310-315 pounds. Cox has good quickness off the snap, has outstanding speed for the position, and can use that pop off the ball along with his elite agility to get by an unbalanced offensive lineman so he can make plays in the backfield against the pass and the run, both.

Rivera knows it’s plays specifically like this that can kill a drive. Turn a 1st and 10 into a 2nd and 13, and you’ve got a nice shot at a 3-and-out. Drive-killing plays are obviously key for defensive stops and that’s what Cox specializes in. Cox is also, specifically speaking, a player that is built from the ground-up to be a 3-technique DT. The Panthers run a 4-3. That checks out, then.

Brockers should be a wonderful run-stopper and probably will fit into the Eagles’ “wide-9″ defense perfectly as one of those 2 tackles in the center. Cox wouldn’t be as effective there perhaps because of more chances of getting double-teamed, and both lack the explosiveness to be as effective a 4-3 DE as they will be a DT, even if either one CAN play DE…but this is not a case of trying to put a square peg into a round hole.

Dontari Poe’s measurables are better than anyone’s at the position, but he’s got the underachiever label and questions around him with his game tape not matching his physical ability. That’s the cause of his sliding, but I wasn’t sold on him from the start at 9, either. If Rivera wants a DT, Cox should be the pick as he’s got a motor that just will not quit.

Tossing aside LSU CB Claiborne, who should be drafted at 9 if he’s still there but very probably won’t be, there are two other prospects that would fit the bill.

One is BC MLB Luke Kuechley. He’s by far the top-rated ILB on the board and he showed up at the Combine bigger and faster than anyone thought he was. They knew of his tackle-machine game tape but weren’t sold on him athletically. Now, they are. However, the nature of ILB as a position decreases the chances of his being drafted in the top ten. He’s now sort of stuck in the middle-first-round category without any chance of sliding out of the first round completely, so he’ll go somewhere in the 10th to the teens area, most likely. Buffalo could use him at ten, but again, that’s a bit high for a MLB these days.

He certainly is as much of a can’t-miss pick on defense as there is and would greatly help the Panthers seal up the middle against the run, which they were woefully inadequate against in 2011. Massive injuries to the Panther LB corps didn’t help, and the rookie DTs they used played like rookies. If not Cox, and if it’s too early for Kuechley, then who else?

South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore has been rising steadily over the past couple of weeks and some people now see him as the #2 CB in the entire draft, surpassing Alabama’s ‘Dre Kirkpatrick and possibly being a top-ten pick. I disagree. While Gilmore has elite instincts, his downside is his man-to-man coverage skills, especially against the deep ball.

He lacks elite speed to recover when he’s beaten and will be burned at the NFL level. His strength is his zone coverage and staying on top of short routes to deliver a hit or break up, but a corner like that is best-suited for a team that can get a good pass rush from their defensive line. Since the DL and secondary are the Panther’s weak spots, I don’t see him as being a good fit in their scheme – not to mention being somewhat of a reach at #9 overall.

He’d be a nice fit if the Panthers already HAD Cox and could pressure the QB with their front four. They’re not there yet.

But what if a Justin Blackmon slides to nine, or if Michael Floyd somehow convinces teams he’s worthy of a top-ten selection with 3 alcohol arrests at Notre Dame? Should the Panthers take one or the other?

No, for several reasons. Steve Smith would have been in a contract year, and I’d have been surprised to see the Panthers sign him long-term after the season at his age. They negotiated, met in the middle someplace, and have him nailed down for the rest of his productive career.

This newly-found stability with Smith at WR and Newton at QB should, along with the Panther running game, be enough such that the franchise decides to help the defense with their top pick. With no 3rd round selection, it’s even more imperative that the Panthers get help for the defense.

The depth in this draft at the WR position is the best of any in the draft, including the defensive tackles, and the Panthers should be able to find WR help in the 4th round as a result.

Fletcher Cox would be my top pick with Michael Brockers and Luke Kuechley being tied for a fairly close second.