My initial reaction?

Only idiots have their fantasy league drafts before the PRE-season begins.

No personal insults intended for those of you that have, but think about it: A) You’re drafting without vital information about which newcomers are looking up (ie: a T.Y. Hilton or Doug Martin) and which ones aren’t looking too good so far (ie: a Dontari Poe, Morris Claiborne) and B) You cannot account for injuries that invariably occur during the preseason (ie: Pat Angerer, Trent Richardson).

Also, as I write this, the breaking news of the day is that Giants DT Shaun Rogers is out for the season with a blood clot in his leg. While Rogers is hardly a fantasy stud even in fantasy leagues that have a DT position, this is just the latest setback in the Giants’ interior DL and will affect their ability to stop the run. Things like this have ripple effects.

May 23, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (95) takes a break during the Giants OTA at the their training facility. Mandatory Credit: Jim O

So, remember the Golden Rule for Fantasy Commissioners: Don’t draft your league too early! Nobody wants a league where one or more owners gives up due to multiple injuries to their “top players” before the season even begins.

In this article, let’s take a look at some rookies that could provide some good upside with a mid-to-late round draft choice:

Brian Quick before Stephen Hill

Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams – there are mixed ideas about this kid. He comes from small Appalachian State in Boone, NC, so conventional wisdom is that he should take some time to get up to speed with an NFL playbook. At 6’4″ and 220 pounds, he ran a 4.55 at the NFL Combine. These stats basically mirror those of Bears’ WR Brandon Marshall, who came from UCF (Central Florida).

Remember back in 2007 when App. St. won in Ann Arbor against the Michigan Wolverines? Quick wasn’t a part of that game, but players like Chad Henne and Mario Manningham were on Michigan’s side. Armanti Edwards was the game’s leading passer, and he’s now a starting safety for the Carolina Panthers. It demonstrates the strength of their program.

By contrast, Stephen Hill is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the entire WR class for 2012. The kid averaged – averaged – over 28 yards per catch in college at the much larger school, Georgia Tech. However, he’s even more raw than Quick is and has to learn the route tree besides posts and go patterns. Even though the Jets are thin at the position, Hill has a ton of work in front of him before he becomes a consistent threat in the passing game. He’s worth a late-round pick as a 4th WR perhaps but don’t look for much production from him early.

You also have to take into account the team’s offense and who exactly the quarterback is. Would you rather have your “sleeper” WR pick catching passes from Mark Sanchez or Sam Bradford?

Bradford had a bad year last year but he was hampered by injuries. Mark Sanchez has yet to prove he’s a franchise quarterback. Bradford showed he can be that guy in 2010 when he was a healthy rookie.

Aug 9, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) catches a pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Tony Carter (32) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Alshon Jeffery before Rueben Randle

Randle is the better-known player as Jeffery had a dismal final season for the Gamecocks, so Randle will probably be headed off the board first. This is a case of perhaps TOO much talent – on the New York Giants’ WR roster. Randle will compete against Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz for targets. Alshon Jeffery likely will start the entire season opposite Brandon Marshall, making Jeffery the team’s no.2 option. While Randle may also start for his Giants, there’s more talent there to compete with. Both teams have strong quarterback play, with a sizable edge going to Eli, but again…Randle is one among many while Jeffery is one among two. The math favors Jeffery, but Randle should produce also. I just think Jeffery might be the better value of the two in terms of fantasy draft position vs. upside this year.

Some random notes:

RB David Wilson of the Giants could wind up being a fantasy points machine. He was drafted to be the “hammer” to Ahmad Bradshaw’s shifty style of running. Bradshaw has a history of getting dinged up with some injuries, and Wilson looks to be the more natural goal-line back of the two. Wilson not only has the potential to be a TD vulture, but will probably see at least a few games where Bradshaw’s either out or hurting, allowing Wilson to get more touches.

RB Lamar Miller of the Dolphins should be considered in PPR leagues. The Philbin regime has begun and he runs a West Coast style offense. With the lack of receiving experience on the team, I see a lot of different guys catching balls this fall. I’d be surprised if any single guy gets more than 60 catches and backs and TEs should see a higher percentage of total targets as a result. Reggie Bush may line up in the slot or run patterns out of the backfield and Miller should see his share as well with his speed. While I probably wouldn’t draft him in regular leagues, he might be worth a later pick in PPR leagues.

Don’t “reach” for Justin Blackmon – There are two good reasons NOT to draft Justin Blackmon high: Laurent Robinson and Blaine Gabbert. Having said that, if he does fall into the 6th round or beyond, which is highly doubtful, THEN you might take a flier on him. Just remember for WRs that half of it is about who is throwing the ball. With Blaine Gabbert looking marginally better so far than he did last year, he has a long way to go as well in his second year. When you add in Laurent Robinson on the other side, Blackmon’s opportunities look to be limited by circumstance – and especially if Pocket Hercules continues his holdout into the regular season.

The 2012 NFL season looks especially rich with untested skill-position rookies looking to make an immediate impact.

The good:

Andrew Luck looks like the real deal. Surprise!

The Rams announced after their initial preseason contest that they would not be playing a game in London in 2013 or 2014, but will still take on the New England Patriots there at Wembley Stadium on October 28th of this year. They got blown out by the Colts, 38-3, the previous day. This is not what I expect from a Jeff Fisher-led squad especially with the improvements they’ve made to their roster the past season.

However, the Rams did have a bright spot in rookie CB Janoris Jenkins. He covered very well and had a chance to make a play or two but was just unlucky – he had position to make an interception or at least defend the pass, but the bullet pass went through his hands and wound up being caught by Colts rookie T.Y. Hilton in a nice play where Hilton had to really focus on the deflected pass.

So far, it looks like both Jenkins and Hilton are the real deals, and both teams desperately need their contributions. If Jenkins can adjust a bit more but continue on his current trajectory, the Rams should field one of the better CB tandems in the league with Cortland Finnegan on the other side.

T.Y. Hilton made several catches last night and his 4.3-speed and return ability should provide a nice spark for this very young offense. He’s very elusive, has good hands, and plays bigger than his 5-10 size would suggest. If he can attack from the slot, he could be a dangerous weapon.

Aug 11, 2012; Seattle, WA, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker (10) runs and looks for an open receiver during the 1st half against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-US PRESSWIRE

Titans quarterback Jake Locker appears to be winning his camp battle with Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck, 36, has waning skills and threw two interceptions last weekend while Locker had zero. Reports are that he’s consistently outplayed the veteran placeholder and at this rate, Jake will be starting week one.

Miami Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill showed poise that pretty much everyone – myself EXCLUDED – didn’t think he’d show so soon. Many analysts expressed surprise that he looked so good under the circumstances…he was injured last season at Texas A&M and only had around 2 and a half years of experience at QB since he’s a converted WR. I knew that he’d come into camp TEACHING THE OTHER QBs Mike Sherman’s system since the man was his college Head Coach. I’ve been saying from since he was drafted that he’d be starting FROM WEEK ONE (go back and check if you want) and the injury to David Garrard could well be the catalyst that gives Tannehill some playing time in order to vault over Matt Moore for the job. Moore has always been a poor practice player (although his effort has never been in question). Ryan showed he’s not afraid to throw into tight spaces, and I’m sure a guy like Arizona Cardinals’ HC Ken Whisenhunt would kill to have Tannehill in his fold. See below under “the bad.”

The bad:

Colts’ 2011 leading tackler MLB Pat Angerer is out for at least six weeks with a fractured foot. With the Colts’ Lucky offense looking good albeit in their initial preseason contest, this has to be of grave concern. The Colts’ defense hasn’t been known as stout against the run in recent years and this invites opponents to make the Colts show them they can stop the run…especially because running the ball means keeping Andrew Luck on the sidelines.

Do we see a similar strategy at work here as has been attempted for the past 12 years by Indy’s opponents? I think so!

Aug 10, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Dontari Poe (92) is blocked by Arizona Cardinals center Lyle Sendlein (63) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-US PRESSWIRE

Chief’s ultra-gifted rookie DT Dontari Poe is continuing his old college ways – in other words, he’s not shown much on the field. He started out as the second-string nose tackle entering camp with the hopes he could show that he belongs as the starter. At 350 pounds and 4.9-speed, he’s easily the most gifted NT on the team physically. The bad news? He’s now working with the third team. NOT the direction GM Scott Pioli and HC Romeo Crennel had in mind when they nabbed him with their top overall pick.

The Cowboys and the Raiders offenses looked horrible last night. The Cowboys managed only 210 total yards from scrimmage in a forgettable 3-0 victory. Dez Bryant was, yet again, getting “nagging” injuries before even this game during camp and his short career has been plagued by them. The lone bright spot was that Darren McFadden, the Raiders #4 overall draft pick four years ago, looked completely recovered from the foot injury that ended his season last year when he was the NFL’s leading rusher before getting injured. He only had 2 carries for 20 yards, but his 16-yard scamper showed his moves are back.

Good thing too, since Carson Palmer was 3 of 6 with an INT. Thanks, Hue Jackson.

The Arizona Cardinals apparently have two gun-shy signal-callers. First, I was never sold on Kevin Kolb, having had only a few starts in Philly before the Cardinals, desperate to replace retired Kurt Warner, ponied up a “Glob for Kolb” with a huge contract only to see him out-played (or “sucking” less) by journeyman Red John Skelton, who makes about 30 times less money than Kolb. After the Cards’ initial preseason loss to KC, Whisenhunt lamented that they had one-on-one coverage multiple times downfield, but the QBs were not trying to get them the ball. With All-Pro WR Larry Fitzgerald on one side and a very physically talented first-round pick in Notre Dame rookie Michael Floyd on the other, I’d have to like my chances throwing it up for either of those two guys to haul in at the highest point.

Skelton went 3 of 6 or 35 yards and an INT while Kevin Kolb went 1 for 5 for 21 yards. Looks like the Cardinals are going to lean more and more on their running game as both their quarterbacks continue their gun-shy ways from last year.

I had always said the Colts were a 4-12 team without Peyton Manning. Clearly, I was wrong.

They were a 2-14 team.

With the NFL’s biggest offseason housecleaning in mind, here’s their 2012 draft:

Sep 17, 2011; Clemson, SC, USA; Clemson Tigers tight end Dwayne Allen (83) is brought down by Auburn Tigers defensive back Erigue Florence (14) during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Clemson won 38-24. Mandatory Credit: Joshua S. Kelly-US PRESSWIRE

1 1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford
2 34 Coby Fleener TE Stanford
3 64 Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
3 92 T.Y. Hilton WR Florida International
5 136 Josh Chapman DT Alabama
5 170 Vick Ballard RB Mississippi State
6 206 LaVon Brazill WR Ohio U.
7 208 Justin Anderson G Georgia
7 214 Tim Fugger LB Vanderbilt
7 253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois

In perhaps the most glaring case of “reloading” in NFL history, the Indianapolis Colts selected Stanford Cardinal QB Andrew Luck after cutting Peyton Manning along with his massive contract. It’s probably just as easy if not easier to name who is remaining than whom they lost from last season.

Luck is one of the most anticipated QBs to come out of college since…well, since Peyton Manning himself. Even Cam Newton was considered a “raw” QB before resetting the rookie QB performance bar so high that it will indeed take a special young man to even approach his numbers last season. Luck’s accolades have been sung for two years now so I won’t dwell on him here. Suffice it to say Colts coaches are astounded by his ability to retain information. Like it’s a surprise? The kid went to Stanford, hello…McFLY…ANYBODY HOME!??

Andrew Luck is one of the few that could do it, but the massive changes on the team are going to make cohesion an issue early on. Veteran WR Reggie Wayne is now the biggest name – aside from Luck – on the offense. He’ll probably be the one that Luck finds the most helpful in his development as far as skill position players go because he’s about the only one remaining from last year! WR Austin Collie returns as a slot receiver but has a history of concussions.

The Colts drafted two WRs, T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill, so Luck doesn’t lack for targets – most of them just happen to also be fellow rookies.

Lost were TEs Dallas Clark (Tampa Bay) and Jacob Tamme (Tamme followed Peyton to Denver), RB Joseph Addai (New England – now cut there), center Jeff Saturday (Green Bay), WRs Pierre Garcon (Washington) and Blair White (waived), and QB Curtis Painter (Baltimore). The only free agent signings they did during the off-season of any consequence to the offensive side are WR Donnie Avery, center Samson Satele, RB Mewelde Moore, and tackle Winston Justice. Ben Ijalana was kicked inside to guard, his more “natural” position, where he’s already landed on IR for 2012 and been released. LT Anthony Castanzo, and RG Mike McGlynn (another converted tackle) round out 4 of the apparent starters on a pedestrian offensive line. Jeffrey Linkenbach, another converted tackle, or Joe Reitz should start at the guard spot that Ijalana vacated.

The other signees are backups and special teams players for most squads, but don’t be surprised to see one or more making significant contributions simply because the team is at time-zero in their 3-yr rebuilding plan.

The good news is they obviously drafted with a purpose. Their “luck,” so to speak, didn’t run out when their second-round pick came up. They took Luck’s favorite college target in Coby Fleener who also was the highest-rated TE of the entire draft. While Fleener has to learn the offense just like all rookies every year do, at least Luck knows how he thinks and can go in and be able to anticipate his moves even better than some established pros can because of their history.

Their third round pick, Clemson TE Dwayne Allen, clearly demonstrates the offensive model the organization wants to follow: that of the New England Patriots. Neither Fleener nor Allen come with a very good blocking reputation but that’s not why they were drafted. Oddly enough, I’ve not seen much by way of comparisons between those two and the Gronkowski/Hernandez duo in Foxboro but that does seem to be what the Colts wish to emulate, and with good reason.

The tight end is generally the most flexible of the skill positions when it comes to the formations a team can use. In any given 11-man huddle with 2 tight ends, at least one of them can line up at WR, in the slot, as a fullback, as an H-back, or in the traditional tight end alignment. With the pair they picked up, this gives Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians a lot of wiggle room with different formations using the same 11 players, making it hard for an opposing defense to make substitutions…assuming Fleener and Allen are as advertised.

Jan 2, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA; Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck (12) throws to tight end Coby Fleener (82) during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Oklahoma State Cowboys beat the Stanford Cardinal 41-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

In one somewhat troubling moment yesterday, Arians was asked about Fleener’s progress. His response? “He’s solid. He’s a really good blocker on the offensive line. We need to get him better as a receiver. But he’s making progress.”

Ouch. That’s exactly the opposite of what they may have thought they were getting – a good receiving TE with average blocking skills. They clearly need both rookies to produce and if Fleener can’t catch up, he may not be much of a factor at least until the second half of the season, if that. Reggie Wayne can’t do it all, so keep an eye on the Colts’ preseason games especially with all the rookie talent to see who stands out from the pack.

Defensively, the team hasn’t lost as much but they’re changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4, so a lot of players are going to be playing new positions. The Texans pulled it off last year, but will the Colts?

For instance, longtime DE pair Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will be OLBs now. It’s too early to tell how that will go, but both are outstanding pass rushers and could still shine in the right scheme. Rising third-year pro Pat Angerer at ILB is an underrated player and a tackling machine last year with 148 total. That number is inflated because of the poor performance of the offense last year, but he seems up to the job.

DE Justin Hickman, a signee from the Canadian Football League, is another player to keep an eye on. He had 13 sacks for the Hamilton Tigercats that should project as yet another OLB for the team. The biggest name I know of that has made the jump is Miami Dolphins OLB Cameron Wake, so there’s a precedent in place.

They really don’t have much returning talent at the NT position. Fifth-round pick Josh Chapman from Alabama played much of 2011 for the Crimson Tide on a torn ACL, so his ability to play through pain isn’t in question. However, he’s beginning the season on the Physically unable to Perform (PuP) list, but he should push for the starting job when he’s healthy again. The Colts’ defense was regularly gashed on the ground for several reasons, but not having a solid player here hurt them. If Chapman isn’t ready, expect Antonio Johnson or ex-Raven Brandon McKinney to start. Kavell Conner looks to have the inside track on the other ILB position beside Angerer.

The biggest issue with the defense last season was a systemic one. With QB Peyton Manning and company lighting up the scoreboard, other teams were forced to the air to try to keep pace and the defense was light and fast – built to defend the pass, not stuff the run. When the offense fell apart without Manning, no more pinball-machine scores for the Colts which meant teams could attack the weakness – their run defense – and nearly all of them did so successfully last season. It was a case of one problem compounding another.

Nov 27, 2011; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) is sacked by Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney (93) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Ironically, the Colts don’t have much at corner. The now-defunct regime under Bill Polian could not decide on starters for a while last season and played musical chairs, hoping against hope that someone would rise to the top.

Nobody did.

It says a lot about a defensive backfield when Jerraud Powers is the only corner they have that is a starting-caliber corner. They’ve done everything they can think of to get somebody – ANYBODY – to show something to the coaches there but so far have come up empty. That’s a problem. The bright spot in the secondary is veteran safety Antoine Bethea, a longtime Colt and fan favorite. At strong safety, another ex-Raven, Tim Zibikowski, projects to start.

The transition from their previous 4-3, Tampa-2 style defense to a more unpredictable 3-4 may help mask this issue for a time, but the lack of both talent and depth at corner is the biggest problem this defense faces. Any injuries at all to anyone at corner will further deplete the ranks and probably is going to have to be the top issue they address in the next offseason assuming they don’t work a trade or make further moves sometime this year. The sooner, the better.

So, the Colts have a very nice pair of safeties and that’s a good thing because with their corners, they’re going to need all the safety help they can get. Those guys are going to be busy.

Yeah…this is a long article and not easy to read, but with so many changes and questions still unanswered, I could have brought up two or three times as many battles. Things are still confusing enough in Indy, but at least they got their heir-apparent to Peyton Manning and the cornerstone of their franchise for the next dozen years or so.

With the 2-14 season last year in mind and all the changes, both in personnel and coaching staff, the 2012 iteration of the Colts will surely see a ton of growing pains and breakdowns in execution especially at corner and the interior DL. This makes the Colts one of those difficult teams to forsee because they haven’t any established identity. With that in mind, the Indianapolis Colts took….

…two steps forward. They simply have too many holes to fill and too little experience with the switch to the 3-4 to have much cohesion early in 2012. How this team performs in the second half of the season will speak volumes about the new regime in place as everyone gets settled in. I’d expect Indy to win 5 games plus or minus simply through improved QB play. The team had a couple of close losses last year, so 5-11 or 6-10 may be within their grasp this year.

Next up…the Jacksonville Jaguars.