The Bucs have won only 2 games, lost 4 by a total of 22 points, and had the New York Giants on the ropes in New Jersey before Eli pulled yet another rabbit out of a hat. The Vikings started strong and have ridden Adrian Peterson and an improving Christian Ponder to a highly unlikely 5-2 start.

Don’t forget – one of those was a thorough thrashing of the San Francisco 49′ers.

Ordinarily, it would be simple to look at the records and see the fact that the Vikings are playing at home and assume they’ll win the game handily. Not so fast.

While Buccaneer rookie Doug Martin is certainly no Adrian Peterson, he’s been getting a lot of carries and is turning out to be more productive than any other rookie non-QB is even close to being. While Trent Richardson may have more talent, he’s apparently not nearly as durable as Martin is…and being on the field is everything in the NFL.

Tampa Bay isn’t as horrid as their record shows, nor are the Vikings much of a threat to go deep into the playoffs, it would seem, despite the big win over the ’9′ers. The Vikings are doing things on the backs of a handful of stars – Peterson, DE Jared Allen, CB Antoine Winfield, and Percy Harvin, who leads the NFL in catches right now. Top pick Matt Kalil would appear to have been the correct and highly unsexy choice, but is a large reason why Ponder has been able to raise his level of play in this, his second NFL season. Kalil literally has his back(side).

So how do the teams match up?

Despite a young and very fast defense, the Bucs will probably give up 100+ yards to AP. It’s not so much the D as it is AP. The guy is amazing, coming off a devestating knee injury in week 17 last season to be able to start the season. If not for him, the Vikings’ record could easily be flipped.

Both offenses have a “franchise” running back. Both have a true #1 receiver that is a threat to go the distance each time he gets the ball (Harvin, Vincent Jackson). Both have a relatively young quarterback that struggled last year.

The much-maligned Vikings defense from a year ago has reduced by over 20 points the opposing quarterback’s QB rating and they also have a better scoring defense than Tampa Bay, allowing 4 points per game less (18.7 to 22.7) in 2012. Add to that the fact they’re the home team, and the 3 points for home field advantage, and the Vikings win by seven points.

Looking at scoring offense, the two teams are quite close. The Bucs average 24.9 ppg; the Vikings 23.9….leaving the Vikings with a 6-point statistical advantage.

The Buccaneers have shown me no reason yet why I should pick them to upset the Vikings, and therefore will probably do exactly that with my luck. Until that breakout game arrives, however, I think Adrian Peterson is just too much of an advantage for the Bucs to overcome especially playing in Minnesota.

I’ll go right in lockstep with the statistics today and say that the Vikings should win this one, 26-20. Peterson gets 120 rushing yards, Martin gets 80-ish, and Vincent Jackson leads the game in receiving yards but Harvin gets more receptions.

But best of all, the fans win tonight. It’s a really good chance to see some established stars (Vikings) try and keep the youngest roster in the NFL “down” one more week.

When Schiano’s team finally pieces things together? Woe be to the rest of the NFL. The west coast of Florida houses some pretty big talent. Check out the game to see if tonight’s the night they actually do put it together or not.

Follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye

The Niners were thoroughly thrashed at home by the defending champion New York Giants, scoring only 3 points in the process, and face the NFL’s top defense tonight. Things just aren’t looking much better for the Niners on paper.

However, the Seahawks aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home. They’re undefeated at home (3-0) and 1-2 on the road with their lone victory coming at the hapless Carolina Panthers two weeks ago.

The Niners are just a slightly better team than the Panthers are, however, and I suspect Jim Harbaugh will have them ready to play. I’d hate to have been a Niners’ player this week during practice…I bet it was no fun at all.

So what we have are two very similar teams in many ways…teams with hard-nosed, physical defenses and run-first-oriented offenses. Which squad will gain the advantage over the other?

The Seahawks’ defense has probably the most physical corners in the league, and San Francisco isn’t known for having an outstanding receiving corps. They’ve added a couple of pieces for sure – Mario Manningham for one – and have Michael Crabtree, who is a physical WR in his own right.

That still may not help much if you look at the Carolina game where Seattle’s physical corners kept Steve Smith frustrated for the entire game – save one blown coverage. That happens to the best of them. Otherwise, Smith was held in check and flagged for an unsportsmanlike penalty late in the game due to that frustration.

The “wild card” in that matchup would seem to point to TE Vernon Davis. He runs a sub-4.4 40-yard dash and is a unique a weapon there as anyone has…including the New England Patriots. Gronkowski and Hernandez combine for over 10 catches, 91 yards, and a TD in that game. While the avg/catch was low, Brady was finding them when needed and that puts Davis in the spotlight for an above-average game for him tonight. We’ll see.

October 14, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers inside linebacker Patrick Willis (52) tackles New York Giants running back David Wilson (22) during the third quarter at Candlestick Park. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-US PRESSWIRE

On the flip side, Russell Wilson has had his struggles on the road. His best QB rating of his 3 road games came, once again, against the Carolina Panthers (82.2), while his worst home game saw his QB rating stand at 99.3. He’s not the same player on the road, and that comes from being a rookie.

The Niners gave up an uncharacteristic 149 yards rushing against the Giants last week and Alex Smith was harassed into tossing 3 interceptions. With the Seahawks’ defense and rookie Bruce Irvin’s incredible burst and speed, the possibility exists for a repeat performance in the passing game as well.

However, there’s a 3-way tie at 4-2 atop the NFC West. In my opinion, the Cardinals (4-2) are more of a pretender than a contender and the ‘hawks are for real. Alex Smith has the “big-game” experience to handle the situation, at home, much better than Wilson does.

I think we’ll see the Niners challenge the interior defense of the Seahawks with their running game a lot more than they tried against the Giants, when they had no running back with double-digit carries. Look for Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter both to get at least a dozen carries tonight, with some strikes attempted over the top off of play-action and TE Vernon Davis splitting seams in the defense.

As good as Seattle’s defense is, NOBODY has a linebacker that can match up with Davis. If the Niners can get their running game going at all, that’ll be the plan.

Also look for some creative play calling on second or third and short. In a game where scoring should be hard to come by, both coaches are going to take more chances in rolling the dice on the big play and San Francisco has a defensive advantage over the Seahawks in one area – a linebacker named Patrick Willis. He’s as good as they get, and may well help prevent Marshawn Lynch of Seattle from entering “Beast Mode.”

If they can do that, the Niners will win going away.

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The Steelers are once again without safety Troy Polamalu and LB Lamarr Woodley but should see LB James Harrison return. Polamalu is the key to this defense and the Titans are playing at home, which gives them a fighting chance. Not much of one, but a fighting chance.

Here are the team rankings for both squads:

Titans:
Total offense: 26th
Rushing offense: 30th
Passing offense: 16th

Total defense: 29th
Rushing defense: 28th
Passing defense: 25th

Steelers:
Total offense: 18th
Rushing offense: 26th
Passing offense: 10th

Total defense: 5th
Rushing defense: 11th
Passing defense: 3rd

It’s easy enough to see that the Pittsburgh Steelers have a distinct advantage in the statistics – most notably in defense. Surprised?

Didn’t think so.

The Titans’ best area is that they are 16th against the pass and my guess is that their rushing defense is so porous that teams simply run it, knowing the Titans have difficulty in stopping them…and also running in the second half to shorten a game with a big lead over the Titans.

Indeed, the Titans have 172 rushing attempts against them this season which is 3rd highest in the NFL. By comparison, the opposition has tried only 93 rushing attempts against the Steelers’ tough squad, but strangely enough their yards/attempt is close. The Steelers give up 4.1 per run; the Titans 4.2. Then again, the Titans more often know a run is coming if they’re down 20 points in the second half and their opponent has the ball, so that has to be factored in as well.

What makes this game different for the Steelers is that they’ve got RB Reshard Mendenhall back from injury…a very welcome sight after the walking wounded backfield by committee that they’ve had to use.

I see no real downside to starting Matt Hasselbeck over the injured Jake Locker at this point. I don’t think there’s a huge fall-off and you really don’t hear the “CJ2K” nickname much anymore for Titans’ RB Chris Johnson do you? He had his first and only 100-yard game of the season against the Texans, unlikely as it might seem against that defense, but otherwise only has 210 yards rushing for the entire season, no TDs, and fantasy owners everywhere pulling their hair out like Larry of the Three Stooges.

I also see no improvement over the season from the Titans so far, and every loss they’ve had so far have been blowouts. Their lone victory was against a struggling Detroit Lions team, and they had to score 44 points to do it. The most they’ve scored in any of their other contests was a whopping 14 in a loss to those Texans, who scored 38.

My prediction?
Steelers by 21

follow me on Twitter @Ken_Dye