1. Drew Brees : Even with Sean Peyton out last year and the merry go round at the helm, Brees still finished atop the points for QB’s in 2012. I think a repeat is in the making for this year.
2. Aaron Rodgers : Numbers wise Rodgers had a down year but with that being said he finished third in points last year and added a strong RB in the draft.
3. Peyton Manning : Bringing in Welker for the slot will amplify their offense even more than it was last year. Plus the addition of Montee Ball to the back field reminds me of when Fox had the bash brothers in Carolina.
4. Tom Brady : This is kind of high for me, but on shear talent Brady deserves to be here. Losing Welker to Denver, and the uncertainty of Gronk. I think Brady could have an off year. But I will reassess the situation closer to my next rankings.
5. Cam Newton : Third year in the league and I think it’s his time to shine. The rushing yards might dwindle a little bit if Carolina decides to run the RBs more, but inside 5 yards is Cam’s specialty. He gets you rushing TDs which other players aren’t, and I think his passing game will thrive this season.
6. Matt Ryan : With arguably the best WR duo, in Jones and White. Also added Jackson in the backfield, I’m a little cautious to see if it’s a big change from Turner.
7. Robert Griffin III : His second year in the same system, we will see how he comes back from his knee injury last year.
8. Matthew Stafford : Brought in Reggie Bush to assist their backs, should be a nice receiver out of the back. Still has Megatron, which would boost any QB.
9. Andrew Luck : Led the Colts to the playoffs last year, finished in the top 10 in fantasy. Don’t see much improvement from this year. Solid top ten QB.
   

   Jan 6, 2013; Baltimore, MD, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) during the AFC Wild Card playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens at M

10. Eli Manning : If they keep Cruz, Eli could move up. If Cruz leaves that would only leave Nicks as the proven WR. He will move further down the totem pole if there is no Cruz.
11. Tony Romo : As a professional QB, he has his moments that make you shake your head. But in the fantasy world last year he finished right above Luck. He can have a huge game, just no consistency, and had multiple games with multiple interceptions.
12. Joe Flacco : Winning the Super Bowl last year was a high, coming into this season he lost a big target in Boldin. Still has the down field threat, so I predict a couple big games this year.
13. Colin Kaepernick : San Francisco drafted WR, TE and RB in draft. But the biggest impact players were brought in through free agency with Boldin and Manningham.
14. Russell Wilson : One of the biggest moves in free agency this year was Seattle’s addition of Percy Harvin. Still have the beast in the backfield so the passing game can only get better for Wilson.
15. Andy Dalton : Got a TE in the draft, still has Green to throw to which saves Dalton as far as fantasy goes.
16. Sam Bradford : With the loss of Jackson, I think they will have a tougher time throwing the ball this year. But they did get two WRs in this draft that has played together for a while.
17. Josh Freeman : Still has some weapons to throw to, defense was helped a lot in this year’s draft, plus the addition of Revis. So I think Freeman will get more opportunities this year, I am just not sure what he is going to do with them.
18. Matt Schaub : Added Hopkins in the draft which I think will complement Johnson in the passing game, still a strong RB coming out of the backfield.
19. Michael Vick : Brought in a good TE in the draft. They have a new head coach, could have a great year this year. Might move up in later rankings.
20. Jay Cutler : Not the most consistent QB in the bunch, but he does have a plethora of talent around him. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally.

Tune in next week as I look over the top 20 RBs. I don’t think anyone in Carolina will make that cut… Thanks for reading.

1) Last year’s studs rarely are this year’s studs – Jacksonville’s Maurice Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing. This season, he’s holding out…possibly even into the season. Hardly first-round material unless it’s resolved fast. Adrian Peterson is coming off an ACL tear in week 17. While he’s vastly ahead of schedule in his recovery, will he be the same player in week one as he was last season’s week one?

2) Even the best QBs rarely repeat a particularly good year – but the elite ones will always deliver. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, even Cam Newton should all be high-scoring fantasy players worthy of round one picks. What I’m talking about is don’t expect Matt Stafford to repeat his breakout year, although he should still be a top-ten fantasy QB. Just don’t expect quite the same big numbers in consecutive seasons from anyone…there always seems to be some variance.

3) Don’t even BOTHER drafting a kicker…from one season to another, kickers’ FP output seems random. Last year’s top kicker is rarely this year’s one, and with kickers the swings are even wilder than other positions. Instead, use that last spot to draft a sleeper. You can ALWAYS pick up a kicker off waivers just before the first game and you’ll have that last guy on the bench. Someone will eventually need to go but more often than not, it’s someone OTHER THAN the last guy you drafted. Unless there are 2 active kicker spots, in which case it’s a good idea to grab both – just do the math for your league. If there are more kicker spots open than teams in the NFL, you’ll have an advantage over those that didn’t get two. Depends on your league’s setup and rules

4) Don’t bother drafting Mike Shanahan-coached running backs. Nothing against Mike, but he uses running backs like paper towels…uses them, throws them aside when a cleaner one is ready. After Terrell Davis, he’s gone through lots and throw a dart to figure out who winds up the better fantasy player. Best just to avoid them all.

5) If you don’t get a top-6 or so QB, wait a few rounds and draft a second-tier guy. He’ll do better than you might think – after Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Rodgers, Newton, and possibly Phillip Rivers and the Manning brothers and Stafford, lots of teams have second-tier QBs that often score nearly as many FP as the big guys, or the difference isn’t worth picking them 4 or 5 picks higher. I’d take a Big Ben in round 6 or a Matt Ryan in round 5. Don’t neglect sleeper QBs either, like Chad Henne due to circumstance or a T.J. Yates in case Matt Schaub gets injured again, you just hit the jackpot. Trade bait if nothing else…but don’t count on trading to improve your team because guess what: ALL FANTASY OWNERS ALWAYS OVERVALUE ALL THEIR PLAYERS.

5a) Same for Tight Ends. The Elite ones will go in rounds 2-4, then there’s generally a bit of a lull before the “others” go – simply because of the perceived difference in numbers. Sure, it might be a good idea to get a Gronk in round 2, but again, he’s got a very high bar to reach again, and are a difference of 500 yards and 5 TDs really worth a 2nd round pick, where a 7th round pick could get you a Brandon Pettigrew? Maybe, maybe not.

6) This may be the most overlooked AND most important thing of all – READ THE LEAGUE RULES. Compare what QBs, RBs, WRs get for the same yardage gained, and how many FP for a TD. Usually it’s 4 for QBs, 6 for RBs and WRs. I won two leagues in two different seasons because I had noticed they had 2 QB spots and a hybrid QB/WR/RB spot. So my first 5 picks were QB, QB, WR, QB, RB. I picked up DeMarco Murray midway through the year and his big second half carried me to a championship, so you’ve gotta stay alert for the waiver wire. Sometimes others will waive players they have, not knowing they’re about to see a huge uptick in action. Keep an eye on that.

7) Keep in mind some players 2nd or 3rd on the depth chart that may be playing behind injury-prone guys – see the Schaub example above. Trent Richardson’s main backups may fall into this category, depending on his knee. Ryan Matthews of the Chargers, Jahvid Best of the Lions…injury-prone. So it’s a good idea sometimes to go ahead and draft a durable backup late rather than getting a fragile producer (Dez Bryant) early.

This is by no means all-inclusive, but it’s a general guide. Know your positions, know the scoring rules for your league. Draft with those rules in mind and consider the entire team as well. Offensive players on a team with a poor rush defense won’t see as many snaps as those on a team with a good defense.

Jan 22, 2012; Foxborough, MA, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice (27) carries the ball against the New England Patriots during the third quarter in the 2011 AFC Championship game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-US PRESSWIRE

This week, we will take a look at 5 players, that I deem worthy of a first round pick.

I’m a member of a deep league, so first round talent for me, may be considered second or third round talent for you. That being said, let’s get this puppy rolling.

Ray Rice RB Baltimore Ravens

If I’ve learned anything over the past two years, it’s that Ray Rice is a sure thing. He’s an outstanding runner, and with his catching abilities, he’s a stud on any fantasy line-up. I took him 2nd overall last year, and could not have made a better decision. He’s 1-3 pick worthy in normal scoring, and could vie for the 1st pick in PPR leagues. If you are sitting at 2-7 and he’s on the board, YOU MUST PICK HIM.

Jamaal Charles RB Kansas City Chiefs

He’s coming off an ACL injury, but don’t let that hinder your judgement. Charles is still a freak of a runningback and will be a stud all season long if he can stay healthy. Mind you, he is a high risk/high reward pick. If you are willing to draft him, you will get a great player that will give you solid numbers every week. He may not be a Top 5 talent anymore, but he’s definitely a Top 15 talent.

Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers

I normally stay away from a QB in the 1st round, but with the new style of football, they are moving up the ranks. Cam looks to be a contender for the top QB this season is he can avoid the Sophomore Slump. He’s biggest value comes from what he does on the ground. He will throw up 200 yards a game, but put another 50-100 on the ground. In most normal scoring leagues, that will give another 5-10 a week. Statistically, he’s a freak of nature and breaks into my Top 20.

LeSean McCoy RB Philadelphia Eagles

Like Rice, McCoy is a dual threat RB. He’s a monster on the sides and in between the tackles, and he’s an amazing receiver. McCoy’s greatest strength comes in the redzone. He had the highest number of rushin touchdowns last season, and from what I saw, he has no intentions of slowing down. McCoy can fight for a Top 3 pick easily if he can continue his production.

Calvin Johnson/Wes Welker WRs Detroit Lions/New England Patriots

In order to stop my imminent beheading from mentioning a guy that might be a victim of the Madden Curse, I’ve chosen both WRs here. Megatron needs no explanation for any normal football fan. His only downside is the lingering effects of the Madden Curse. If you don’t believe in said curse, take him in the first round, but if you do, look to Welker. Welker defies all odds with his height and level of production. Even when people believed his production would suffer after the acquisition of two stand-out Tight Ends, he came up with 122 catches and 1569 yards. If he doesn’t sign a deal before the season, he is in a contract year and could look to explode more-so than normal.

Well there you have it guys and gals. This is who I believe is FOR SURE 1st round talent. I’m not saying this is the Top 5, but if you are picking this season, and you don’t know who to draft, look at one of these players.

Thanks for reading, and come back next week when I look to rank the Top 5 defenses in the league.