My initial reaction?

Only idiots have their fantasy league drafts before the PRE-season begins.

No personal insults intended for those of you that have, but think about it: A) You’re drafting without vital information about which newcomers are looking up (ie: a T.Y. Hilton or Doug Martin) and which ones aren’t looking too good so far (ie: a Dontari Poe, Morris Claiborne) and B) You cannot account for injuries that invariably occur during the preseason (ie: Pat Angerer, Trent Richardson).

Also, as I write this, the breaking news of the day is that Giants DT Shaun Rogers is out for the season with a blood clot in his leg. While Rogers is hardly a fantasy stud even in fantasy leagues that have a DT position, this is just the latest setback in the Giants’ interior DL and will affect their ability to stop the run. Things like this have ripple effects.

May 23, 2012; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (95) takes a break during the Giants OTA at the their training facility. Mandatory Credit: Jim O

So, remember the Golden Rule for Fantasy Commissioners: Don’t draft your league too early! Nobody wants a league where one or more owners gives up due to multiple injuries to their “top players” before the season even begins.

In this article, let’s take a look at some rookies that could provide some good upside with a mid-to-late round draft choice:

Brian Quick before Stephen Hill

Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams – there are mixed ideas about this kid. He comes from small Appalachian State in Boone, NC, so conventional wisdom is that he should take some time to get up to speed with an NFL playbook. At 6’4″ and 220 pounds, he ran a 4.55 at the NFL Combine. These stats basically mirror those of Bears’ WR Brandon Marshall, who came from UCF (Central Florida).

Remember back in 2007 when App. St. won in Ann Arbor against the Michigan Wolverines? Quick wasn’t a part of that game, but players like Chad Henne and Mario Manningham were on Michigan’s side. Armanti Edwards was the game’s leading passer, and he’s now a starting safety for the Carolina Panthers. It demonstrates the strength of their program.

By contrast, Stephen Hill is probably the most physically gifted athlete in the entire WR class for 2012. The kid averaged – averaged – over 28 yards per catch in college at the much larger school, Georgia Tech. However, he’s even more raw than Quick is and has to learn the route tree besides posts and go patterns. Even though the Jets are thin at the position, Hill has a ton of work in front of him before he becomes a consistent threat in the passing game. He’s worth a late-round pick as a 4th WR perhaps but don’t look for much production from him early.

You also have to take into account the team’s offense and who exactly the quarterback is. Would you rather have your “sleeper” WR pick catching passes from Mark Sanchez or Sam Bradford?

Bradford had a bad year last year but he was hampered by injuries. Mark Sanchez has yet to prove he’s a franchise quarterback. Bradford showed he can be that guy in 2010 when he was a healthy rookie.

Aug 9, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery (17) catches a pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Tony Carter (32) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Alshon Jeffery before Rueben Randle

Randle is the better-known player as Jeffery had a dismal final season for the Gamecocks, so Randle will probably be headed off the board first. This is a case of perhaps TOO much talent – on the New York Giants’ WR roster. Randle will compete against Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz for targets. Alshon Jeffery likely will start the entire season opposite Brandon Marshall, making Jeffery the team’s no.2 option. While Randle may also start for his Giants, there’s more talent there to compete with. Both teams have strong quarterback play, with a sizable edge going to Eli, but again…Randle is one among many while Jeffery is one among two. The math favors Jeffery, but Randle should produce also. I just think Jeffery might be the better value of the two in terms of fantasy draft position vs. upside this year.

Some random notes:

RB David Wilson of the Giants could wind up being a fantasy points machine. He was drafted to be the “hammer” to Ahmad Bradshaw’s shifty style of running. Bradshaw has a history of getting dinged up with some injuries, and Wilson looks to be the more natural goal-line back of the two. Wilson not only has the potential to be a TD vulture, but will probably see at least a few games where Bradshaw’s either out or hurting, allowing Wilson to get more touches.

RB Lamar Miller of the Dolphins should be considered in PPR leagues. The Philbin regime has begun and he runs a West Coast style offense. With the lack of receiving experience on the team, I see a lot of different guys catching balls this fall. I’d be surprised if any single guy gets more than 60 catches and backs and TEs should see a higher percentage of total targets as a result. Reggie Bush may line up in the slot or run patterns out of the backfield and Miller should see his share as well with his speed. While I probably wouldn’t draft him in regular leagues, he might be worth a later pick in PPR leagues.

Don’t “reach” for Justin Blackmon – There are two good reasons NOT to draft Justin Blackmon high: Laurent Robinson and Blaine Gabbert. Having said that, if he does fall into the 6th round or beyond, which is highly doubtful, THEN you might take a flier on him. Just remember for WRs that half of it is about who is throwing the ball. With Blaine Gabbert looking marginally better so far than he did last year, he has a long way to go as well in his second year. When you add in Laurent Robinson on the other side, Blackmon’s opportunities look to be limited by circumstance – and especially if Pocket Hercules continues his holdout into the regular season.

The 2012 NFL season looks especially rich with untested skill-position rookies looking to make an immediate impact.

July 29, 2012; Cortland, NY, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Stephen Hill (84) makes a catch during training camp at SUNY Cortland. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-US PRESSWIRE

Jets @ Bengals, 7:30 pm – How will the Sanchez/Tebow drama unfold and is there a controversy? Their respective play tonight should begin to quell the “Tebow for starter” crowd unless Sanchez performs horribly and Tebow shows things he has yet to show. Ever. Also of interest is Jets’ rookie Stephen Hill. He’s a Megatron-like physical specimen, from the same college (Georgia Tech) as Calvin Johnson, but comes into the NFL very raw. Look for Jets OC Tony Sparano to try at least one deep ball to him, probably on a second-and-short or something in order to gain as favorable a matchup in the defensive play calling as possible. On the Bengals’ side, the “punk’d” WR Mohammed Sanu starts his attempt at becoming QB Andy Dalton’s #2 option at WR…after A.J. Green.

Browns @ Lions, 7:30 pm – Probably this is Brandon Weeden’s weakest opponent of the preseason…at least as far as their secondary goes. Louis Delmas is out indefinitely and the Lions have very little talent at corner. With the injury to Trent Richardson, look for the Browns to check out their “other new toy” more in the passing game while Richardson’s fellow RBs get a good look as coaches scramble in worry over Richardson’s return timeline. The Lions’ concerns lie more with their aforementioned pass coverage so look for ANYONE that might stand out there. They are in dire need now of playmakers.

Giants @ Jaguars, 7:30 pm – All eyes should be on 2nd-yr QB Blaine Gabbert of the Jags. He was dead last in just about every NFL passing category last season and looked completely lost most of the time. The result? The Jags signed Miami Dolphin cast-off QB Chad Henne. I think if Henne outplays Gabbert in the preseason, it’ll be very, very difficult for Jacksonville Jaguars Head Coach Mike Mularkey to start Gabbert. This is by far the biggest issue of any position battle on their squad and Gabbert really needs to start showing some street magic that he has yet to offer in his short career. We need to watch how the Giants’ run defense holds up the middle as they’ve done some retooling of their surprisingly soft, gushy middle from last season. Now, we start seeing if it holds. We know they can bring the heat on the QB as well as anyone.

August 3, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Vincent Jackson (83) catches the ball as defensive back Anthony Gaitor (26) attempts to defend during training camp at One Buc Place. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Cardinals @ Chiefs, 8:00 pm – John Skelton is going to wind up being the starter in Arizona whether it’s due to better play than Kevin Kolb or because Kolb stubs his toe, falls down and breaks his collarbone walking through the tunnel before the game. Kolb needs to wear the red practice jersey every time he steps on the field, but I’m sure there are rules about that…(wink). The biggest thing will be how far along is rookie WR Michael Floyd, and will he deliver enough to help take some double-teams off of All-World WR Larry Fitzgerald? The Chiefs’ questions at this point are more sober…with a number of skill position players coming off IR from last season, this should help evaluate their recovery progress. If I had one player to watch with the Chiefs, it would be how Dontari Poe plays. He was the talk of the Combine earlier this year, but underachieved at a small college. He is probably going to wind up the poster child in the “tape vs. upside” discussion for his 2012 performance, fairly or unfairly.

May 24, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Dontari Poe (92) and offensive lineman Rodney Hudson (61) scrimmage during organized team activities at the Kansas City Chiefs practice facility. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Vikings @ 49ers, 9:00 pm – Boy, if there ever was a game of the “haves” vs. the “have-nots,” this matchup is the one. The Vikings are entering the second season of their rebuilding phase and currently do so without their big star, Adrian Peterson. Even if Peterson were unquestionably 100% recovered from his ACL tear from week 17 last season, he wouldn’t be playing much in any of the preseason games in the first place, so that’s not the issue some think it is. The Vikings need to evaluate the progress of second-year QB Christian Ponder and how well #4 overall pick and Carolina Panthers’ center Ryan Kalil’s brother Mike is picking up the nuances of playing the left tackle. They also have similar issues that the Lions do in the secondary, so someone needs to step up and this is the time to start. The Niners’ main concern is evaluating all the new bodies they picked up at WR after having a massive 3 yards passing to the WR corps in their NFC Championship Game loss to the Giants last season. However, keep in mind the quality of the Vikings’ secondary while you do. RB Frank Gore may have peaked his career by now and they’re looking to see who can take a share of carries and the load off the guy.

Head Coach Pat Shurmur made the following press release: “Trent Richardson is traveling to Pensacola, Fla., where he will have his left knee further evaluated by Dr. James Andrews tomorrow.”

Yes, he’s “the Doc” for athletes to see regarding knee problems. Yesterday, I reported that Richardson had some discomfort and offered that the Browns would probably keep him under wraps until at least game 3 of the preseason.

It appears that Richardson’s ETA for a return may be even further out than that.

ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that the procedure is “minor” and is intended to “clean up a loose piece of cartilage” in the same knee he had surgery on in February.

Jun 12, 2012; Berea, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterbacks coach Mark Whipple (left) and offensive coordinator Brad Childress (right) watch as quarterback Brandon Weeden (3) hands off to running back Trent Richardson (33) during minicamp at the Cleveland Browns training facility. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-US PRESSWIRE

The news overshadowed the other bad news for the Browns – CB Joe Haden is facing suspension for failing a drug test showing the presence of Adderall in his system. Adderall is on the list of banned substances and is classified as an amphetamine.

Both pieces of news are bad, but the Richardson news is potentially far worse. At least Haden will not miss more than 4 games in a suspension. A bum knee could hamper Richardson for the entire season – or not. It’s the uncertainty that makes it so bad for the moment because it means that fellow rookie first-round pick, QB Brandon Weeden, won’t be facing any stacked fronts without Richardson’s presence.

For Cleveland’s sake, let’s all hope bad news doesn’t ALWAYS come in threes.