Fantasy Football Live Draft – Analysis
By Ken Dye
In my last post, I simply listed the entire draft to give people a “feel” for when some players they have targeted can be expected to come off the board in a 12-team league. Below, I’ll evaluate the good and bad picks of each round. BTW, my team is the Carolina Rifles, and I posted my own draft earlier with an explanation as to why I took each player when I did. That article is here:
Round 1
1. Arian Foster RB – HOU TO cowgirls
2. Aaron Rodgers QB – GB TO Zone 3 Kings
3. Ray Rice RB – BAL TO blackandyellow
4. LeSean McCoy RB – PHI TO The Contenders
5. Tom Brady QB – NE TO And first place goes to
6. Drew Brees QB – NO TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
7. Matthew Stafford QB – DET TO king bengal
8. Cam Newton QB – CAR TO Carolina Rifles
9. Calvin Johnson WR – DET TO Hawkeyes
10. Chris Johnson RB – TEN TO Powderpuff boys
11. Darren McFadden RB – OAK TO Revis and Butthead
12. Larry Fitzgerald WR – ARI TO Cowboyz Baby
No real surprises in the first round although Darren McFadden may be risky at #11 overall with his history of injuries. I certainly wouldn’t take any Cardinals player in the first round no matter how good he is. Someone still has to get the ball to him.
Round 2
13. Rob Gronkowski TE – NE TO Cowboyz Baby
14. Julio Jones WR – ATL TO Revis and Butthead
15. Jimmy Graham TE – NO TO Powderpuff boys
16. Matt Forte RB – CHI Hawkeyes
17. A.J. Green WR – CIN TO Carolina Rifles
18. Andre Johnson WR – HOU TO king bengal
19. Greg Jennings WR – GB TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
20. Roddy White WR – ATL TO And first place goes to
21. Maurice Jones-Drew RB – JAC The Contenders
22. Wes Welker WR – NE TO blackandyellow
23. DeMarco Murray RB – DAL Zone 3 Kings
24. Jamaal Charles RB – KC TO cowgirls
Gronk is overpriced in most drafts – I don’t see him getting those huge numbers again, especially the TDs. Anything’s possible in New England, but there is no upside to him at #13 overall. #23 and #24 are risk/reward RBs with their injury issues, but are going to see more touches than any other backs in their systems.
Round 3
25. Hakeem Nicks WR – NYG TO cowgirls
26. Ryan Mathews RB – SD TO Zone 3 Kings
27. Fred Jackson RB – BUF TO blackandyellow
28. Steve Smith WR – CAR TO The Contenders
29. Trent Richardson RB – CLE TO And first place goes to
30. Marshawn Lynch RB – SEA Rochester Ny Dasher’z
31. Brandon Marshall WR – CHI TO king bengal
32. Adrian Peterson RB – MIN TO Carolina Rifles
33. Tony Romo QB – DAL TO Hawkeyes
34. Michael Vick QB – PHI TO Powderpuff boys
35. Ahmad Bradshaw RB – NYG TO Revis and Butthead
36. Steven Jackson RB – STL TO Cowboyz Baby
#25 Nicks is a risk with his foot problems and the presence of Victor Cruz and rookie WR Reuben Randle. #29 Richardson is not a bad pick here, but injury concerns and a slow start may be in his future. #31 Marshall is a nice pick, since he’s reunited with his former QB in Denver, Jay Cutler – both now with DAAAAAA Bearsssssss….I also thought getting Adrian Peterson at #32 is a better choice than MJD was at #21.
Round 4
37. Demaryius Thomas WR – DEN TO Cowboyz Baby
38. Victor Cruz WR – NYG TO Revis and Butthead
39. Mike Wallace WR – PIT TO Powderpuff boys
40. Jordy Nelson WR – GB TO Hawkeyes
41. Marques Colston WR – NO TO Carolina Rifles
42. Percy Harvin WR – MIN TO king bengal
43. Dez Bryant WR – DAL TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
44. Brandon Lloyd WR – NE TO And first place goes to
45. Dwayne Bowe WR – KC TO The Contenders
46. Miles Austin WR – DAL TO blackandyellow
47. Jeremy Maclin WR – PHI TO Zone 3 Kings
48. Philip Rivers QB – SD TO cowgirls
#37 Demaryius Thomas is a nice risk/reward pick here. I think Victor Cruz may be a bit high, and Mike Wallace could start slowly but will get back to his old form pretty quickly. My Colston pick I like because of the offense he’s in and his historical production. Percy Harvin could have a breakout season. Brandon Lloyd is a breakout candidate. Bowe was a nice pick at #45.
Round 5
49. Vincent Jackson WR – TB TO cowgirls
50. Aaron Hernandez TE – NE TO Zone 3 Kings
51. Antonio Gates TE – SD TO blackandyellow
52. Antonio Brown WR – PIT TO The Contenders
53. Michael Turner RB – ATL TO And first place goes to
54. Darren Sproles RB – NO TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
55. Reggie Bush RB – MIA TO king bengal
56. Doug Martin RB – TB TO Carolina Rifles
57. Frank Gore RB – SF TO Hawkeyes
58. BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB – CIN TO Powderpuff boys
59. Peyton Manning QB – DEN TO Revis and Butthead
60. Beanie Wells RB – ARI TO Cowboyz Baby
V-Jax was a steal in the 5th round to the cowgirls. Some very good values here with the RBs – I had targeted Turner and Bush before they went off the board 3 and 1 spots ahead of me. I was ticked, but took RB Doug Martin, the rookie in Tampa Bay, as he has a nice upside as a starter. Peyton Manning could be the biggest steal of the draft at #59, but rumors are out there that he has issues throwing to his right side. Keep an eye on that with Peyton. I also wouldn’t have taken any Cincy RBs with their interior line issues, although they lost their C, Kyle Cook, AFTER this draft. I wouldn’t take any offensive player on the Cardinals with their QB and O-line issues.
Round 6
61. Steve Johnson WR – BUF TO Cowboyz Baby
62. Eric Decker WR – DEN TO Revis and Butthead
63. DeSean Jackson WR – PHI TO Powderpuff boys
64. Jermichael Finley TE – GB TO Hawkeyes
65. Kenny Britt WR – TEN TO Carolina Rifles
66. Shonn Greene RB – NYJ TO king bengal
67. Torrey Smith WR – BAL TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
68. Reggie Wayne WR – IND TO And first place goes to
69. Eli Manning QB – NYG TO The Contenders
70. Matt Ryan QB – ATL TO blackandyellow
71. Robert Meachem WR – SD TO Zone 3 Kings
72. Vernon Davis TE – SF TO cowgirls
I almost took Torrey Smith with my pick, but decided to roll the dice a bit with Britt. He’s my ultimate risk/reward guy. Smith went 2 picks later, so my hunch may be right – the Ravens’ offense is in high gear already. #66 Shonn Greene isn’t SO bad here in the 6th round, but we all know of the Jets’ offense’s issues. I wouldn’t take a Jets player, either. #68 Reggie Wayne is a steal here as well and Robert Meachem has good upside in San Diego.
Round 7
73. Pierre Garcon WR – WAS TO cowgirls
74. Denarius Moore WR – OAK TO Zone 3 Kings
75. Anquan Boldin WR – BAL TO blackandyellow
76. Jason Witten TE – DAL TO The Contenders
77. Fred Davis TE – WAS TO And first place goes to
78. San Francisco 49ers DEF TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
79. Tony Gonzalez TE – ATL TO king bengal
80. Peyton Hillis RB – KC TO Carolina Rifles
81. Greg Little WR – CLE TO Hawkeyes
82. Darrius Heyward-Bey WR – OAK TO Powderpuff boys
83. Jacob Tamme TE – DEN TO Revis and Butthead
84. Ben Roethlisberger QB – PIT TO Cowboyz Baby
Garcon has great upside here in the 7th round as does #74 Moore. Boldin could be the steal of the round, and #83 Jacob Tamme has a history with Peyton Manning – he’s an ex-Colt too, and took over nicely when Dallas Clark was injured. #81 Greg Little could wind up being Cleveland’s top wideout, so that’s a great choice here as well.
Round 8
85. Chicago Bears DEF TO Cowboyz Baby
86. Detroit Lions DEF TO Revis and Butthead
87. Green Bay Packers DEF TO Powderpuff boys
88. Baltimore Ravens DEF TO Hawkeyes
89. Jermaine Gresham TE – CIN TO Carolina Rifles
90. New York Jets DEF TO king bengal
91. Brandon Pettigrew TE – DET TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
92. New York Giants DEF TO And first place goes to
93. Houston Texans DEF TO The Contenders
94. Pittsburgh Steelers DEF TO blackandyellow
95. Philadelphia Eagles DEF TO Zone 3 Kings
96. David Akers K – SF TO cowgirls
The run on defenses starts here, but I ignored the pull and took Jermaine Gresham of Cincy. He could work out better than expected as Dalton’s safety valve and TE threat with a patchwork interior offensive line. They may be throwing a lot of short passes, and Gresham is a prime target there. the cowgirls were dumb to take a kicker this early. Sorry.
Round 9
97. New England Patriots DEF TO cowgirls
98. Sebastian Janikowski K – OAK TO Zone 3 Kings
99. Dan Bailey K – DAL TO blackandyellow
100. Stephen Gostkowski K – NE TO The Contenders
101. Mason Crosby K – GB TO And first place goes to
102. Matt Prater K – DEN TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
103. Garrett Hartley K – NO TO king bengal
104. Seattle Seahawks DEF TO Carolina Rifles
105. Neil Rackers K – WAS TO Hawkeyes
106. Jason Hanson K – DET TO Powderpuff boys
107. Matt Bryant K – ATL TO Revis and Butthead
108. Nate Kaeding K – SD TO Cowboyz Baby
A strange run on kickers began, which I ignored, and went ahead and used the dead time to pick up the Seattle defense, which should be a top-ten squad.
Round 10
109. Willis McGahee RB – DEN TO Cowboyz Baby
110. Stevan Ridley RB – NE TO Revis and Butthead
111. Kevin Smith RB – DET TO Powderpuff boys
112. Jonathan Stewart RB – CAR TO Hawkeyes
113. Andrew Luck QB – IND TO Carolina Rifles
114. Mark Ingram RB – NO TO king bengal
115. DeAngelo Williams RB – CAR TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
116. Robert Griffin III QB – WAS TO And first place goes to
117. Donald Brown RB – IND TO The Contenders
118. Cedric Benson RB – GB TO blackandyellow
119. Isaac Redman RB – PIT TO Zone 3 Kings
120. Matt Schaub QB – HOU TO cowgirls
A run on 2nd/reserve RBs here, which I again ignored, instead taking rookie sensation Andrew Luck. The Colts are building their team to contend NOW – or they wouldn’t have traded for Miami Dolphin CB Vontae Davis. #119 Isaac Redman could produce early but fall off when Reshard Mendenhall is up to full speed. #110 Ridley and/or #111 Kevin Smith could have very good upside here in the tenth round.
Round 11
121. Titus Young WR – DET TO cowgirls
122. Toby Gerhart RB – MIN TO Zone 3 Kings
123. Mikel Leshoure RB – DET TO blackandyellow
124. Jay Cutler QB – CHI TO The Contenders
125. Michael Bush RB – CHI TO And first place goes to
126. Evan Royster RB – WAS TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
127. Lance Moore WR – NO TO king bengal
128. Danny Amendola WR – STL TO Carolina Rifles
129. C.J. Spiller RB – BUF TO Hawkeyes
130. Ben Tate RB – HOU TO Powderpuff boys
131. David Wilson RB – NYG TO Revis and Butthead
132. Santonio Holmes WR – NYJ TO Cowboyz Baby
I like the Michael Bush pick here; might be a TD vulture behind Matt Forte. #128 Amendola is Sam Bradford’s slot WR and security blanket AND does some return duties, so he should see points each week. Spiller started to show something last year when Fred Jackson went out with injury, and Ben Tate is a great pickup – Arian Foster has had hamstring issues and those tend to linger. I also like #131 David Wilson, as Amhad Bradshaw gets dinged every year it seems and Wilson showed some “prime-time” ability when given the chance. Nice upside to Wilson.
Round 12
133. Justin Blackmon WR – JAC TO Cowboyz Baby
134. Jake Locker QB – TEN TO Revis and Butthead
135. Josh Freeman QB – TB TO Powderpuff boys
136. Nate Washington WR – TEN TO Hawkeyes
137. Rashad Jennings RB – JAC TO Carolina Rifles
138. Roy Helu RB – WAS TO king bengal
139. Michael Crabtree WR – SF TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
140. Ryan Williams RB – ARI TO And first place goes to
141. Shane Vereen RB – NE TO The Contenders
142. Austin Collie WR – IND TO blackandyellow
143. Laurent Robinson WR – JAC TO Zone 3 Kings
144. Pierre Thomas RB – NO TO cowgirls
#133 Justin Blackmon is a complete steal here. I had passed on him in favor of Amendola because while I think Blackmon has a high ceiling, QB Blaine Gabbert had an awful rookie year but looks better this preseason. HUGE upside to Blackmon, but I already had a couple of risk/reward guys (ie. Kenny Britt) so I went with the safer pick in Amendola. Crabtree should see some points. I’d not draft #142 Austin Collie under any circumstances – he has concussion history and seemed to suffer another one in the preseason. #143 Laurent Robinson is a nice upside guy here in the 12th round.
Round 13
145. James Starks RB – GB TO cowgirls
146. Carson Palmer QB – OAK TO Zone 3 Kings
147. Andy Dalton QB – CIN TO blackandyellow
148. Malcom Floyd WR – SD TO The Contenders
149. Dustin Keller TE – NYJ TO And first place goes to
150. Joe Flacco QB – BAL TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
151. Santana Moss WR – WAS TO king bengal
152. Greg Olsen TE – CAR TO Carolina Rifles
153. Mario Manningham WR – SF TO Hawkeyes
154. Sidney Rice WR – SEA TO Powderpuff boys
155. Mike Williams WR – TB TO Revis and Butthead
156. LeGarrette Blount RB – TB TO Cowboyz Baby
The “cowgirls” confuse me. They make a couple of great picks then some stinkers. James Starks is a GREAT choice here. The Packers are going to run a LITTLE bit, and when they do, Starks is the guy. Dalton and Floyd are good value picks here too, as is Flacco. Manningham and Rice have some upside too. Mike Williams is a bust and should be avoided.
Round 14
157. Sam Bradford QB – STL TO Cowboyz Baby
158. Coby Fleener TE – IND TO Revis and Butthead
159. Kendall Wright WR – TEN TO Powderpuff boys
160. Ryan Fitzpatrick QB – BUF TO Hawkeyes
161. Atlanta Falcons DEF TO Carolina Rifles
162. Mark Sanchez QB – NYJ TO king bengal
163. Terrell Owens WR – SEA TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
164. Emmanuel Sanders WR – PIT TO And first place goes to
165. Jon Baldwin WR – KC View Videos TO The Contenders
166. Brent Celek TE – PHI TO blackandyellow
167. Randy Moss WR – SF TO Zone 3 Kings
168. Nate Burleson WR – DET TO cowgirls
Here, we’re well into the reserves. I like Kendall Wright at #159 and he could be a real steal here. Randy Moss might actually do something on a good team…when he “feels like playing.” He’s running on fumes at this point, but might still have a little bit left.
Round 15
169. Jared Cook TE – TEN TO cowgirls
170. Davone Bess WR – MIA TO Zone 3 Kings
171. Steve Smith WR – STL TO blackandyellow
172. Kyle Rudolph TE – MIN TO The Contenders
173. Michael Floyd WR – ARI TO And first place goes to
174. Owen Daniels TE – HOU TO Rochester Ny Dasher’z
175. Doug Baldwin WR – SEA TO king bengal
176. Billy Cundiff K – BAL TO Carolina Rifles
177. Alshon Jeffery WR – CHI TO Hawkeyes
178. James Jones WR – GB TO Powderpuff boys
179. Brian Quick WR – STL TO Revis and Butthead
180. Jacoby Ford WR – OAK TO Cowboyz Baby
The final round is where you get your last sleeper…don’t draft ANY KICKERS – like I just did – and had to dump him and get Jets kicker Nick Folk as Cundiff was released later in the day when I drafted him. Just don’t even BOTHER with a kicker unless your league holds 2 – then you need to draft 2, depending on the size of your league, in order to get an active kicker in each spot. Otherwise, don’t draft Michael Floyd again, because of the issues on the o-line and QB in Arizona. #177 Alshon Jeffery is a huge target with good upside potential as is Brian Quick – but don’t give up on Quick if he has a slow start; he’s from App. State and is on a learning curve. Jacoby Ford was a nice “Mr. Incognito” who could be poised for a massive breakout campaign.
Feel free to leave comments, good or bad, and enjoy!