Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins – a Statistical Comparison

Here on “hump day,” I thought I’d take you inside the numbers and compare the Washington Redskins and Carolina Panthers with the NFL’s leaders below:

* – current NFL leader’s statistics for comparison

OFFENSE:

Total Offense: – (NFL rank) – yards/game

Carolina: (20) – 347.0
Washington: (6) – 387.4
* New England – 440.8

Passing Offense: – (NFL rank) – yards/game

Carolina: (17) – 232.6
Washington: (20) – 221.1
* Detroit – 316.0

Oct 14, 2012; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins running back Alfred Morris (56) runs through a tackle by Minnesota Vikings linebacker Jasper Brinkley (54) during the third quarter at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Paul Frederiksen-US PRESSWIRE

Rushing Offense: – (NFL rank) – yards/game

Carolina: (13) – 114.4
Washington: (2) – 166.2
* San Francisco – 168.6

Scoring Offense: – (NFL rank) – points/game

Carolina: (28) – 18.3
Washington: (4) – 26.6
* New England – 32.8

Offensive line – (NFL overall rank) – Rushing yds/attempt – passing yds/attempt (NFL rank) – sacks (NFL rank) – QB hits allowed (NFL rank)

Carolina: (24) – 4.3 (T-9) – 8.1 (T-2) – 17 sacks allowed (T-13)- 25 QB hits allowed (T-5)
Washington: (17) – 5.3 (T-2) – 8.1 (T-2) – 17 sacks allowed (T-13) – 44 QB hits allowed (27)
* San Francisco – 5.6 yds/carry – * Denver – 8.2 yds/att – * NY Giants – 7 sacks allowed – * NY Giants – 21 QB hits allowed

Third-down efficiency: – (NFL rank) conversion %

Carolina: (21) 30/82 for 37%
Washington: (29) 29/97 for 30%
* Pittsburgh: 54/104 for 52%

In the Red Zone – (NFL rank) TD% – last 3 games – 2011 total

Carolina: (13) 55.0% – 33.0% – 57.89% (2011)
Washington: (12) 56.0% – 50% – 41.18% (2011)
* New Orleans 72.73% – 87.5% – 59.04% (2011)

The bottom line – offense:

While the Washington Redskins’ offense outgains that of the Panthers by about 40 yards/game, their passing offenses closely mirror each other. That much is to be expected with two of the most dynamic players at the position and both are right at the top of the NFL in average per play. Since RG3’s completion percentage is higher than Cam’s (68.8 vs. 57.1), by extension it means Cam has the edge in deep throws overall. Cam averages 14.06 yards per completion while RG3 averages 11.93.

Alfred Morris is the third-leading rusher in the NFL and the Panthers have struggled with the most aggregate talent in their backfield in the NFL. The Redskins average 8 ppg more than the Panthers do.

Overall edge on offense goes to the Washington Redskins and the key here for the Panthers is to get the Redskins into a lot of third-down situations.

Oct 28, 2012; Chicago, IL, USA; Carolina Panthers outside linebacker Luke Kuechly (59) makes a tackle on Chicago Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) during the second half at Soldier Field. The Chicago Bears defeat the Carolina Panthers 23-22. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-US PRESSWIRE

DEFENSE: – (NFL rank) – yards/game – average/play

Total Defense:

Carolina: (15) – 343.9 – 5.3
Washington: (29) – 406.4 – 6.2
* San Francisco – 4.6

Passing Defense: – (NFL rank) yards/game – average/play (NFL rank) – Opponent’s QB rating (NFL rank)

Carolina: (15) 229.4 – 7.4 (21) – 92.1 (22)
Washington: (32) 314.2 – 7.9 (T-26) – 95.0 (25)
* Pittsburgh – 182.6 – * San Francisco – 5.8 – * Chicago – 62.0

Rushing Defense: – (NFL rank) yards/game – average/play (NFL rank)

Carolina: (20) 114.4 – 4.1 (T-15)
Washington: (10) 92.1 – 4.1 (T-15)
* Chicago – 77.9 – * Miami, New England, Tampa Bay – 3.5

Scoring Defense: – (NFL rank) yards/game –

Carolina: (21) 23.9
Washington: (28) 28.4
* San Francisco 12.9

Sacks: – (NFL rank) total sacks

Carolina: (11) 20
Washington: (20) 14
* Arizona, Green Bay 26 sacks each

Third-down effeciency

Carolina: (25) 39/90 for 43%
Washington: (26) 44/104 for 44%
* Miami – 28/106 for 26%

in the Red Zone – (NFL rank) TD% – last 3 games – 2011 total

Carolina: (7) 42.31% – 33.3% – 58.93% (2011)
Washington: (18) 54.84% – 46.67% – 43.86% (2011)
* Detroit (surprised? I was!) 33.33% – 44.44% – 50.85% (2011)

The bottom line:

The Redskins and Panthers have very similar numbers in opponent’s QB rating, but the statistics bear out what I’ve been noticing for much of the year about the Panthers’ defense…they REALLY stiffen up inside the red zone, and having uber-rookie Luke Kuechly playing his natural MLB position will only help their defense over the long haul. He still needs experience, but his tackling and instincts are picture-perfect while he otherwise has no weaknesses.

The pass rush favors the Panthers’ defense as well since they have more sacks and more QB hurries than do the Redskins, but the ‘skins have more interceptions and passes defended overall – likely due to the lack of the pass rush as more opponent’s QBs have time to throw. While Carolina is 20th and Washington 10th in rushing yards allowed per game, they both give up 4.1 yards/carry. This tells us the Panthers’ opponents run more often than do the Resdskins’ opponents. This is sound, given the fact that Carolina ranks near the bottom in time of possession – 28th with 27:38 per game – up from 26:05 per game before the Chicago game last week while the ‘skins in the middle of the pack at 16th – 30:26 per game.

The scoring defense favors the Panthers and with the Redskins ranking 29th overall and 32nd against the pass, the Panthers have the overall advantage there.

September 30, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; Washington Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall (23) prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Turnovers

Washington is 7th in the NFL in turnover margin with a +7 and RG3 has thrown only 3 interceptions the entire season. The Panthers are 26th at -5. That’s a difference of +12 in Washington’s favor, so taking care of the football is a bigger strength for Washington than for Carolina. Given the fact that Washington has played 8 games to Carolina’s 7, that skews the results a bit, but the overall picture is the same. The numbers say in this contest that Carolina will turn the ball over one more time than the Redskins do.

Third downs

The Carolina Panthers have a slight edge in third-down efficiency on both sides of the ball. The Carolina offense has a big edge (37% to 30%) in conversions over the Redskins and a razor-thin edge in defense (43% to 44%). Both teams should see a slight increase in that third-down efficiency but the Panthers should fare a little bit better there over the course of the entire game.

Scoring

Neither defense is great in scoring defense as indicated above. It’s 23.9 ppg for Carolina and 28.5 for Washington. When you compare scoring offense, Carolina is behind Washington there – scoring only 18.3 vs. 22.6 for Washington. Now, for the math quiz:

Carolina offense (18.3 ppg) vs. Washington defense (28.5 ppg) = +10.2 differential in favor of the Panthers.
Washington offense (22.6 ppg) vs. Carolina defense (23.9 ppg) = +1.3 differential in favor of the Redskins.

What this would seem to indicate is that BOTH teams should score above their season average in points in this contest; it should be a relatively high-scoring game.

Prediction:

Carolina 28
Washington 27

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