1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
- Make playoffs: 77%
- Win division: 74%
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to capitalize on running hot at just the right time. Their three-game win streak allowed them to make up a multi-game deficit on the Atlanta Falcons for the division lead.
Their path to the playoffs is simple: keep winning and they’re in. Should they lose and the Falcons win during any week, Atlanta will reclaim the division lead from them due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
As luck would have it, the Falcons get to play the Las Vegas Raiders this Sunday, currently the worst team in the AFC. The Buccaneers have to face off against the Los Angeles Chargers. This could swing the pendulum again.
Even if Atlanta catches back up, the Buccaneers would only be one or two games behind the Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Rams, and Green Bay Packers in the wildcard race depending on how the games for each of these three teams go in Week 15.
In the playoff picture, the Buccaneers are currently fourth as the lowest-ranked division winner and would host either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings — depending on who wins the NFC North —in the first round. They are a game behind the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks for third place, which would award them a much more favorable matchup.
A worst-case scenario still exists where Tampa Bay doesn’t make the playoffs at all. This would require a lot of things to go wrong at once. And to Tampa Bay's credit, they have already overcome several obstacles from both an injury and schedule standpoint.
Their remaining schedule after the Chargers’ game should be quite easy to win out. But, as the Falcons have proven, any team can be a week away from not winning again.