The Panthers' improvement from 5-12 in 2024 to division champ has revitalized the team and the fanbase. And in a division where the Bucs' relative - and I use that term loosely - dominance could be waning, Carolina could be poised to take hold of the division.
Much of the team's success has relied on the late game heroics from quarterback Bryce Young. Young's ups and downs since entering the league are well known. But now three years into his career, those ups and downs are set to have financial implications on his future and that of the Panthers franchise.
The Franchise Tag
Panthers' general manager Dan Morgan has already confirmed that the team will pick up Young's fifth-year option. This is a decision they have to make this offseason. If they decide to exercise the option, it will keep Young under team control for the 2027 season at a guaranteed $26.53 million according to Over The Cap.
In a world where Justin Fields received $20 million per year on a $279 million salary cap, Young provides plenty of surplus value at $26.5 million on a cap that will likely be $335 million by 2027.
What Would A Long-Term Extension Look Like?
But are the Panthers ready to sign up for Bryce long-term already? And for how much? Morgan seemed less certain as to whether those negotiations would begin in earnest. Young is coming off of his best season since entering the NFL. But his ups and downs still oscillated wildly and the passing offense was just 25th in the NFL in EPA/play.
Young was 21st in passing yards, 24th in yards per attempt and tied for 14th in touchdowns this year. Those numbers don't scream top-of-the-market contract.
Looking through his performance over his past one, two, and three years' worth of production, here are the APY projections I have derived from a multi-variable regression analysis.
Platform Year Production Value | Two-Year Production Value | Three-Year Production Value |
|---|---|---|
$30.47 million | $33.36 million | $22.07 million |
The three-year production number includes Young's rookie season and doesn't account for the legitimate steps forward he has taken over the past two years. But his two-year and platform projections both lineup with the new middle class quarterback market that has developed over the past three years. The originator of that market was Geno Smith in 2023, followed by Baker Mayfield in 2024 and most recently Sam Darnold this year.
Player | Drop backs | Yards | Yds/Att | TD | INT | BTT | TWP | BTT-TWP Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryce Young (2024-2025) | 992 | 5,414 | 6.3 | 38 | 20 | 49 | 28 | 1.0% |
Sam Darnold (2023-2024) | 727 | 4,861 | 7.7 | 38 | 14 | 35 | 29 | 0.8% |
Baker Mayfield (2022-2023) | 1,028 | 6,208 | 6.9 | 38 | 18 | 33 | 36 | -0.3% |
Geno Smith (2021-2022) | 764 | 4,984 | 7.5 | 35 | 12 | 41 | 32 | 1.2% |
These mid-tier deals all had a hedge in years in addition to more modest APY's. While the largest quarterback contracts are for four or more years, these mid-market pacts stick to three-year time frames. This would be interesting should Young join the club because a three-year extension added on to his existing years, including the fifth-year option, would put him under contract for a total of five years.
The average APY of the Smith, Mayfield and Darnold deals as a percent of the salary cap in the year they were signed is 12.06%. Applied to a projected $305 million salary cap in 2026 would place Young's APY at roughly $36.67 million. That would be three years and $110 million in new money.
Adding back in 2026 and the 2027 fifth-year option sets the total deal at five years and $142,455,693. The total APY when considering his old and new money would be $28,491,139, just above his option price.
Guarantees, Cash Flows And Structure
Structurally, I could see full guarantees for this deal at $78 million ($45,544,307 in new money) with $110 million total ($77,544,307 in new money). Young's cash flows by year in this hypothetical deal:
2026 - $27,000,000 (Guaranteed at signing)
2027 - $25,500,000 (Guaranteed at signing)
2028 - $25,500,000 (Guaranteed at signing)
2029 - $32,000,000 (Guarantees at beginning of 2028 league year)
2030 - $32,455,693
This deal would work well for Carolina in a variety of ways. Not only are the cash flows extremely manageable through 2030, but the full guarantees are less than $46 million more than just picking up Young's option.
Or put another way, this course of action is not dissimilar to saying they are willing to extend their pact with Young for 2028 for $45.5 million. The 2026 Franchise Tag for quarterbacks is just over $46 million according to OTC. That number will only increase by 2028. In effect, this proposed deal would be similar to locking in the 2028 franchise tag at a bit under the 2026 tag price.
For Carolina, this may be the best path to giving Young plenty of time to continue to ascend while creating an offense perfectly tailored to his skillset. But would Young accept this deal? It significantly limits his earnings upside while keeping him under contract through the rest of his twenties. My gut says he would rather play through his fifth-year option with two more chances to improve his value before forcing the Panthers to make a decision on a potential franchise tag.