NFL Playoff Picture after Week 11: Panthers gain ground on faltering Bucs

The Panthers might be a playoff team.
Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales
Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales | Todd Kirkland/GettyImages

The Carolina Panthers aren’t supposed to be here. Not after starting the season 0-2, and definitely not after the brutal defeat against the New Orleans Saints, when Bryce Young threw for just 124 passing yards.

But here they are, a 6-5 group sitting just a half game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and one win away from reshaping the NFC playoff race entirely. Fans are slowly starting to believe that Dave Canales' squad might be a playoff team.

Week 11 was everything Carolina needed. The Panthers survived a wild overtime game against the Atlanta Falcons, while Tampa Bay lost to the Buffalo Bills.

Carolina Panthers are right in the playoff hunt entering Week 12

Now, all of a sudden, the Panthers have a legitimate shot at the postseason and a viable path to winning the NFC South.

Here is what the standings currently look like:

Playoff Seed

Team

Record

No. 1

Philadelphia Eagles

8-2

No. 2

Los Angeles Rams

8-2

No. 3

Chicago Bears

7-3

No. 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6-4

No. 5

Seattle Seahawks

7-3

No. 6

Green Bay Packers

6-3-1

No. 7

San Francisco 49ers

7-4

Carolina is currently 6-5 and is in ninth, just behind the Detroit Lions (6-4) for the final wild-card spot. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay (6-4) keeps its grip on the NFC South… barely. So this is no longer just about staying alive. The Panthers are one result away from rewriting the division. 

According to the Playoff Predictor model from the Pro Football and Sports Network, the Panthers' postseason chances jumped from 24.2 percent to 38.4%. Their odds to win the NFC South spiked from 13.3% to 26.5%, and Carolina's Super Bowl odds quadrupled, small as they may be — 0.10% to 0.40%.

If the playoffs began today, here is what the NFC wild-card games would look like:

  • (2) Los Angeles Rams vs. (7) Green Bay Packers
  • (3) Chicago Bears vs. (6) Detroit Lions
  • (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (5) Seattle Seahawks

If Carolina wants to let the NFL know they're legit, their schedule gives them every chance to do that. Here is what their remaining games look like:

  • Week 12: at San Francisco 49ers (7-4), Monday Night Football
  • Week 13: vs. Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
  • Week 14: Bye
  • Week 15: at New Orleans Saints (2-8)
  • Week 16: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)
  • Week 17: vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-3)
  • Week 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

Two shots at the Buccaneers in the final three weeks is practically the definition of control your own destiny football. Suddenly, the team nobody believed in two weeks ago looks like the one nobody wants to play in December.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Panthers have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Nobody can deny that now.

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