The Carolina Panthers ripped off one of the league’s most unexpected turnarounds in 2025. An 8-9 record, an NFC South title, and a home playoff game felt like proof of concept for Dave Canales, Dan Morgan, and quarterback Bryce Young.
But beneath the feel-good story lies an uncomfortable truth. The Panthers may have arrived a year early, and that’s notoriously hard to replicate.
According to Pro Football Focus analyst Zoltan Buday, Carolina is one of three playoff teams facing an especially steep climb to return in 2026. The reason isn’t just schedule difficulty or roster churn. It’s how the Panthers actually won.
On paper, Carolina’s offense wasn't great. Across first, second, and third downs, the Panthers averaged -0.09 expected points added (EPA) per play, ranking 27th in the NFL and dead last among playoff teams.
Carolina Panthers need to establish sustainability to build on playoff spot
The Panthers kept winning, thanks in no small part to their fourth-down efficiency.
Canales' squad generated 0.794 EPA per play on fourth-down attempts, the fifth-best mark in the league. The Panthers converted 63 percent of those plays, finishing eighth league-wide.
In other words, when games came down to the tightest, most chaotic moments, Carolina consistently nailed it. That’s where the curse in disguise begins, and their postseason appearance changes the entire lens on 2026.
To make matters worse, Carolina’s profile fits a pattern of teams that historically miss the playoffs a year after making it a little too well. A losing regular-season record. A division title earned via tiebreakers. Heavy reliance on fourth-down efficiency and inconsistent quarterback play masked by late-game execution.
Even Buday’s broader list reinforces the point. The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, like Carolina, are playoff teams facing uphill battles, each for different reasons.
New England rode an unusually easy schedule and an extreme fourth-down success rate. Pittsburgh survived on razor-thin margins amid roster uncertainty.
A playoff appearance can convince organizations they’re closer than they really are. It can delay hard decisions. It can mask structural problems that don’t show up in the standings until they do.
For Carolina, the challenge of 2026 is clear. The Panthers must improve early-down efficiency, reduce reliance on fourth-down heroics, and get more consistent, full-season play from Young.
If they do that, the playoff run becomes a foundation. If they don’t, 2025 may be remembered less as the start of something and more as the year everything briefly broke right.
In the NFL, surprises are fun. But sustainability is everything.