For most of the season, the NFC South felt like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' division to lose. Now, four losses in five games have opened the door just wide enough for the Carolina Panthers, and Baker Mayfield knows it.
Mayfield didn’t sound panicked during his latest media availability, but he sounded aware. Aware that the division he once controlled now hinges on how he plays in two matchups against the league’s hottest climber.
“We’re still in control of our own destiny — that’s just a fact,” Mayfield said. “We’re tied for the division, we would love to be ahead and in a different spot, but we are where we are and we control our own destiny, win one game at a time and see what happens.”
Baker Mayfield knows the Carolina Panthers are breathing down his neck
On paper, it’s just another quarterback repeating the “one game at a time” saying. But viewed through Carolina’s lens, it’s something else entirely: a veteran quarterback acknowledging the Panthers have turned the division race into a street fight.
The Buccaneers know who just tied them: a Panthers team coming out of the bye rested, structured, and steadily improving week by week under head coach Dave Canales.
And here’s the one thing that makes Carolina uniquely dangerous to Tampa Bay in a way the Atlanta Falcons or New Orleans Saints aren’t: Canales knows Mayfield better than any coach he's about to face. He was the one who helped revive his career.
Carolina is the exact type of opponent Tampa Bay did not want breathing down its neck at the business end of the campaign.
Most fans have circled Weeks 16 and 18. That’s fair, that’s where the division will be won. But the Buccaneers still have to face the Falcons, who Mayfield said “would love nothing more than to screw up our chances,” and a Miami Dolphins team that’s heating up.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have two games against the Buccaneers (Weeks 16 and 18), a road trip to New Orleans this week, and a massive home test against the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks.
Carolina doesn’t need help. They don’t need miracles. They need execution, something they’ve finally shown consistently. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, need stability — something they’ve lost.
The harsh truth is that the Panthers' only realistic shot at making the playoffs is through winning the division. The 9-4 San Francisco 49ers sit at the six seed with the Chicago Bears, also at 9-4, making up the final wild card spot at the moment. Behind them, the Detroit Lions are 8-5, meaning the traffic ahead of Carolina is thick and unforgiving.
Beat the Saints. Handle your business. Let the Buccaneers feel the pressure they’ve earned. That's simple.
Mayfield may be standing his ground. But the Panthers are the ones turning up the heat.