Carolina Panthers general manager Dan Morgan has tried one of those fan mock draft tools before, but just once. He realized quickly that some of the evaluations were wildly off, and he never went back.
The truth is, the gap between what fans have access to and what the Panthers are working with every single day from mid-January through draft weekend is not small. It's doctoral-level mathematics versus a fun offseason distraction.
The Panthers' proprietary draft simulation program, "the app," as Morgan calls it, is the work of vice president of analytics Eric Eager, who has been refining his model for years.
Carolina Panthers' mock draft tool is helping them prepare for every eventuality
To understand what makes Eager's model different, you have to understand what goes into it. Statistics, testing times, physical profiles, scouting evaluations, external factors, media mock drafts, prospect rankings, and public consensus boards. Everything you could possibly think of is taken into account.
"It's all of the above," Eager said. "Everything goes into the stew, and I think a lot of the secret sauce is how much they get weighted. But, basically anything you can think of is going in there because at the end of the day, it's more information, as long as it's from independent sources, that's valuable, right?"
Eager pointed to wide receiver Tyler Lockett as an early example of what the mathematical models can predict.
When Lockett came out in the 2015 NFL Draft, advanced statistics at the time flagged him as a player likely to outperform his draft slot. The Seattle Seahawks took him No. 69 overall. The explosive pass-catcher went on to become an All-Pro returner and a consistent 1,000-yard receiver for the NFC West club.
Morgan, Tilis, college scouting director Jared Kirksey, and coaches throughout the spring go through hundreds of these exercises together. And it has a profound impact when the all-important selection process arrives.
"The closer we get to the draft," Morgan said, "the more accurate they become."
Tilis is the one who applies the pressure to keep it honest.
"I give Eric a hard time," Tilis said. "I'm always trying to push back on what the models are saying and making sure that we're thinking of certain things and that we're building in certain assumptions or not building in certain assumptions."
The goal, ultimately, is for draft night to be easier than the practice. By the time offensive tackle Monroe Freeling and defensive lineman Lee Hunter were on the clock for Carolina's first two picks, the Panthers had simulated nearly every version of that moment already.
They were ready for it. Hopefully, this positive trend continues for a long time.
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