The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South last season, but the division remains wide open heading into the new campaign.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons all have legitimate reasons to believe they can challenge the Panthers. But head coach Dave Canales' squad is not without a chance of a successful title defense either.
That makes this one of the more difficult divisions to predict.
Carolina Panthers walk into new territory as NFC South champions in 2026
The Buccaneers, coming off an 8-9 season that ended their run of four consecutive NFC South titles, seem poised to be the most prominent threat to the Panthers. But there are some behind-the-scenes issues that are currently causing friction.
Tampa has lost some important pieces like perennial 1,000-yard wide receiver Mike Evans, but quarterback Baker Mayfield remains in place, and the roster still has enough talent to make another run.
The biggest question surrounding the Buccaneers has been Mayfield's contract situation. Tampa opened training camp with the signal-caller and stud nose tackle, Vita Vea, both involved in disputes over possible extensions to their current deals. However, head coach Todd Bowles has insisted the team won't allow those situations to become distractions.
New Orleans might be the team that makes the division race uncomfortable for everyone.
The Saints are entering their second season under head coach Kellen Moore with Tyler Shough now established as the team's quarterback. They also finished 2025 winning four of their final five games, so don’t sleep on them.
Atlanta is harder to figure out.
The Falcons have an interesting quarterback situation. Will Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa start? We don’t know yet, but the growing sense is the latter, as the former is still working his way back from injury.
Carolina Panthers can still seize NFC South supremacy despite lingering concerns
However, the biggest threat is the abundance of talent outside the quarterback position.
Bijan Robinson remains one of the NFL's best young running backs, Drake London gives Atlanta a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver, and the defense showed improvement last season.
If head coach Kevin Stefanski can get the quarterback situation settled quickly, Atlanta could be better than its fourth-place projection. But that's also why the Falcons are the biggest wild card rather than the Panthers' biggest threat right now.
The way I see it, Carolina should still be favored to win the division. I would currently project the division like this:
Position & Team | Record |
|---|---|
Carolina Panthers | 10-7 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9-8 |
New Orleans Saints | 8-9 |
Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 |
That could change quickly once the regular season begins. But make no mistake; the Panthers don't have the luxury of assuming last year's division title means anything in 2026.
Tampa is still close enough to make this a real race. New Orleans has enough young talent to surprise people. Atlanta's quarterback situation could completely change the outlook.
For now, though, Carolina has earned the benefit of the doubt.
The Panthers aren't guaranteed to repeat, but they have a legitimate chance to prove last year's NFC South title was the beginning of something bigger rather than simply the result of a wide-open division.
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