Optimism has never been higher for the Carolina Panthers, at least since David Tepper became owner. Another impressive offseason from general manager Dan Morgan has done nothing to diminish expectations for what this ambitious franchise could accomplish in 2026, especially after coming off its first division title in a decade.
That's not an opinion shared by everybody.
The Panthers only won eight games last season. The NFC South was pretty weak, and head coach Dave Canales' squad benefited greatly. It won't be as easy next time around, but Morgan gave Carolina a fighting chance with some big splashes in free agency and a methodical draft focused on finding the correct value.
Carolina Panthers remain in the league's lower echelons according to The Athletic's advanced projection model
Austin Mock from The Athletic delivered his offseason rankings, based on his advanced projection model. This hasn't been particularly favorable to the Panthers in recent years, and it proved true once again. Carolina came in at No. 25 league-wide, centered on quarterback Bryce Young's growth and supposed concerns about the defensive front seven.
"The Panthers might pick up Bryce Young's inexpensive fifth-year option, but I'm almost certain he's not worthy of a long-term contract — at least not an expensive one. That puts the Panthers in a tough spot, despite winning the NFC South last season.
"Their wide receivers and offensive tackles are in solid shape with young talent. But their edge rushers and defensive line rank 23rd and 19th, respectively — that's not going to get it done. Even though the cornerbacks room (No. 8) is strong, it won't matter much given the state of that pass rush."
No mention of new edge rusher Jaelan Phillips. No mention of second-team All-Pro linebacker Devin Lloyd's arrival. No mention of second-round nose tackle Lee Hunter to go alongside Pro Bowl defensive lineman Derrick Brown.
Fair enough. The analytics are what they are. Some give them credence, while others brush them off. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, but this highlights how much the Panthers still have to prove.
Things will be tougher next season. The Panthers have a first-place schedule to contend with. They've gone from an afterthought to a team that those in the division are looking to remove the crown from. That's a different type of pressure, but the culture developed by Canales will ensure that complacency doesn't become an issue.
It would be disappointing if the Panthers regressed. Morgan has moved them into win-now mode, and the moves this offseason reflect that. And if the young players all develop accordingly, Carolina won't be an easy out by any stretch of the imagination.
Time will tell. But for the analytics and the advanced models, the jury is still well and truly out.
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